Lukas living in the past? I dream of Cat Thief, and Spain

[King Glorious]

I know about Going Wild. I know about some other seeming longshots that Lukas has brought to these races. I also know about Charismatic, Commendable, Thunder Gulch, Spain, and Cat Thief. If anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt in this kind of situation, it's him. Plus, I do believe that the horse has some actual talent. Strange as it seems, I think he wins the Arkansas Derby if Curlin wasn't in there. I think that if Curlin wasn't there and the rider didn't have to make his move when he did to keep up with Curlin, he could have waited just a bit longer and the result could have been a lot different. I don't expect FFC to win the Preakness but it wouldn't be a total shock to me either. I give him about a 50% chance to hit the tri.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I give him about a 50% chance to hit the tri.

Because I like you, I will give you 6:5.

The usual internet $40K I assume?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Because I like you, I will give you 6:5.

The usual internet $40K I assume?

Let's make it a cool million. Why play for chump change? I have it as:

1. Curlin
2. Circular Quay
3. Hard Spun
4. Street Sense
5. Flying First Class

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know about Going Wild. I know about some other seeming longshots that Lukas has brought to these races. I also know about Charismatic, Commendable, Thunder Gulch, Spain, and Cat Thief. If anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt in this kind of situation, it's him. Plus, I do believe that the horse has some actual talent. Strange as it seems, I think he wins the Arkansas Derby if Curlin wasn't in there. I think that if Curlin wasn't there and the rider didn't have to make his move when he did to keep up with Curlin, he could have waited just a bit longer and the result could have been a lot different. I don't expect FFC to win the Preakness but it wouldn't be a total shock to me either. I give him about a 50% chance to hit the tri.

Thunder Gulch? All he won prior to the Derby was the Remsen, Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby, and was 2nd in the Hollywood Futurity and Cowdin.

FFC is no Thunder Gulch.

[Pedigree Ann]

Remember the reason I thought Stormello wouldn't last a classic distance? Mainly because of his female family, that has been geared toward producing hot 2yos and sprinter/milers? Well, Flying First Class is from the same family, the Solidity bunch from Old English Rancho. His sire, Perfect Mandate, is from the same sort of family and has been siring that sort of horse. A one-turn mile like the Derby Trial is exactly the sort of race that FFC that would be best suited by.

Chelokee also has something to prove on pedigree; his sire has had many a good horse who couldn't run past 8.5f (Chilukki, Kafwain) without looking for a taxi, and Silver Ghost isn't exactly a fount of stamina, either. Only the dam's dam's side can give you hope, and mum was best as a turf miler.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know about Going Wild. I know about some other seeming longshots that Lukas has brought to these races. I also know about Charismatic, Commendable, Thunder Gulch, Spain, and Cat Thief. If anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt in this kind of situation, it's him. Plus, I do believe that the horse has some actual talent. Strange as it seems, I think he wins the Arkansas Derby if Curlin wasn't in there. I think that if Curlin wasn't there and the rider didn't have to make his move when he did to keep up with Curlin, he could have waited just a bit longer and the result could have been a lot different. I don't expect FFC to win the Preakness but it wouldn't be a total shock to me either. I give him about a 50% chance to hit the tri.

Yes it is strange to think that with Curlin not in the Ark Derby, that FCC would have beaten the 4 other horses that finished in front of him that day.

chances of him being in the tri? 25:1 if you ask me.
I think he has no shot to win, I think he is a sprinter and will not get this distance.

[slotdirt]

I think it's kind of funny that King Glorious says in one post that Flying First Class has a 50 percent shot of getting in the tri, then in the next post ranks him fifth among the Preakness contenders. I'm no mathmetician, but I don't think that adds up very well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think it's kind of funny that King Glorious says in one post that Flying First Class has a 50 percent shot of getting in the tri, then in the next post ranks him fifth among the Preakness contenders. I'm no mathmetician, but I don't think that adds up very well.

It doesn't.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think it's kind of funny that King Glorious says in one post that Flying First Class has a 50 percent shot of getting in the tri, then in the next post ranks him fifth among the Preakness contenders. I'm no mathmetician, but I don't think that adds up very well.

How about this then. Let's see if this will help a little. In one scenario, I see it as:

1. Curlin
2. Circular Quay
3. Hard Spun
4. Street Sense
5. FFC

In another, I see it as:

1. Street Sense......he's as good as advertised
2. Hard Spun......puts away the cheap speed and hangs on for second
3. FFC.....charges up like in the Ark Derby but hangs again...still gets third
4. Curlin.......the Derby/Preakness combo was just too much in a short period
5. Circular Quay....closing sprinter that really doesn't want more than 9f

So let's see here. That's two scenarios. FFC is in the tri in one and not in the other. Give me a second to break out my calculator. Let's see now. One out of two. I'm not a math major either so I could be wrong here but 1/2 keeps coming out to 50%. I could do a few more scenarios and come up with more combinations. I come up with FFC in the top three in about half of them. Or maybe 40-45%. Would that be better for u?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Yes it is strange to think that with Curlin not in the Ark Derby, that FCC would have beaten the 4 other horses that finished in front of him that day.

chances of him being in the tri? 25:1 if you ask me.
I think he has no shot to win, I think he is a sprinter and will not get this distance.

Sort of like I think that Winning Colors would have won the Preakness if Forty Niner wasn't in there. Sometimes, the presence of one horse can alter your strategy enough to where u totally compromise your chances to win the race. Perhaps a better example would be that Forty Niner could have maybe won the race if Winning Colors wasn't in there.

When I watched the Arkansas Derby, I got a sense that the rider of FFC was riding as if Curlin was the horse to beat. Curlin made his move and so FFC had to move in order to keep within striking distance. I felt the move was a little early for him and as a result, he flattened out in the lane and was passed by some horses and finished fourth. Maybe if Curlin was not in the race, the rider of FFC could have waited a bit longer before making his move and the result could have been different. I'm not saying that's the way it would have gone but that's the feeling I had watching the race.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Sort of like I think that Winning Colors would have won the Preakness if Forty Niner wasn't in there. Sometimes, the presence of one horse can alter your strategy enough to where u totally compromise your chances to win the race. Perhaps a better example would be that Forty Niner could have maybe won the race if Winning Colors wasn't in there.

When I watched the Arkansas Derby, I got a sense that the rider of FFC was riding as if Curlin was the horse to beat. Curlin made his move and so FFC had to move in order to keep within striking distance. I felt the move was a little early for him and as a result, he flattened out in the lane and was passed by some horses and finished fourth. Maybe if Curlin was not in the race, the rider of FFC could have waited a bit longer before making his move and the result could have been different. I'm not saying that's the way it would have gone but that's the feeling I had watching the race.

Okay, but Curlin IS in this race, and Curlin was no match in the KY Derby for the top two. It was Storminmay and Deadly Dealer who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Ark Derby, ahead of FCC. Check out the derby charts to see what happened to Storm In May when he tried to go a distance that is not good for him.
FCC has got no solution to get him on the board in the Preakness. At the end of the race he will be hopelessly out of it.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Okay, but Curlin IS in this race, and Curlin was no match in the KY Derby for the top two. It was Storminmay and Deadly Dealer who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Ark Derby, ahead of FCC. Check out the derby charts to see what happened to Storm In May when he tried to go a distance that is not good for him.
FCC has got no solution to get him on the board in the Preakness. At the end of the race he will be hopelessly out of it.

And if Curlin runs his race again here, I don't think FFC can beat him. But there is a chance he doesn't run his race. I feel very strongly that this is the wrong place to be running hm. I feel about him like I did about Lion Heart coming back in the Preakness. Not worth it. I do think he can win and he's my pick to win but long term, I don't think it's worth it.

The thing is that even though Storm in May and Deadly Dealer were ahead of him in Arkansas doesn't mean I think they are better horses. Many factors can play into why a race order of finish comes in the way that it does without it meaning that the order determines the actual rank of the horses. Again, I personally thought that FFC was the second best horse in the race in Arkansas. What Storm in May did in the Derby has nothing to do with the Preakness and FFC. At least not that I see.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And if Curlin runs his race again here, I don't think FFC can beat him. But there is a chance he doesn't run his race. I feel very strongly that this is the wrong place to be running hm. I feel about him like I did about Lion Heart coming back in the Preakness. Not worth it. I do think he can win and he's my pick to win but long term, I don't think it's worth it.

The thing is that even though Storm in May and Deadly Dealer were ahead of him in Arkansas doesn't mean I think they are better horses. Many factors can play into why a race order of finish comes in the way that it does without it meaning that the order determines the actual rank of the horses. Again, I personally thought that FFC was the second best horse in the race in Arkansas. What Storm in May did in the Derby has nothing to do with the Preakness and FFC. At least not that I see.

FCC has run two routes this year, both times he finished up the track against Curlin and relatively weak fields. In his two routes he has faced 18 horses and managed to beat a grand total of 4 horses. That you are able to run multiple scenarios and find him hitting the tri fifty percent of the time in this race is simply amazing to me. To me he is the most unlikely horse in the field to be in the tri.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

FCC has run two routes this year, both times he finished up the track against Curlin and relatively weak fields. In his two routes he has faced 18 horses and managed to beat a grand total of 4 horses. That you are able to run multiple scenarios and find him hitting the tri fifty percent of the time in this race is simply amazing to me. To me he is the most unlikely horse in the field to be in the tri.

It seems 20-1 also thinks so

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And if Curlin runs his race again here, I don't think FFC can beat him. But there is a chance he doesn't run his race. I feel very strongly that this is the wrong place to be running hm. I feel about him like I did about Lion Heart coming back in the Preakness. Not worth it. I do think he can win and he's my pick to win but long term, I don't think it's worth it.

The thing is that even though Storm in May and Deadly Dealer were ahead of him in Arkansas doesn't mean I think they are better horses. Many factors can play into why a race order of finish comes in the way that it does without it meaning that the order determines the actual rank of the horses. Again, I personally thought that FFC was the second best horse in the race in Arkansas. What Storm in May did in the Derby has nothing to do with the Preakness and FFC. At least not that I see.

Really? I think it has a lot more to do with it than your references to Winning Colors and Lion Heart. What does that have to do with FCC or Curlin? FCC was beaten a ton by Curlin, TWICE, RECENTLY. Even an off effort or a bounce by Curlin wouldn't put FCC in spitting distance of Curlin at the end. And that leaves the not so small matter of the rest of the field for FCC to deal with.

[MisterB]

If the race stopped at 7-1/2, he may be a contender