Curlin to be m/l fav

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I see what you are saying, I just disagree. What figure will tell me if a turf based Euro will take to the dirt or not? You never know. And we all know in the Derby like everything else, the best horse doesn't always win. Trips and pace matter IMO, not the RAN or dosage. I think of them like the Juvenile jinx, useless.

Well, breeding will tell you a lot about surfaces....Giant's Causeway wasn't a surprise in the BCC because we pretty much knew the dirt would be no problem. The best horse doesn't always win any race, from maiden to BCC...again, tools are just that, part of a very large and complex puzzle. Handicappers have always looked to breeding...off tracks, grass etc. The fact that no winner of the BCJ has won the Derby isn't a jinx, it's a fact! There must be reasons...among the possible ones are early development and difficulty with subsequent prep scheduling. Bottom line...these angles are useful and speak for themselves...maybe this year Curlin will win and the 125 year gap since the last winner who didn't race at 2 will be no more as well as the 89 year gap since a winner had less than 5 starts...if you want to bet the farm on Curlin though, I personally think you'd want to at least be aware of those facts!