Lanes End...

[hockey2315]

There seem to be a ton of horses in this race that can win. . . I'm trying to narrow down the field for a Pk3 but I'm having alot of trouble. . . I think the contenders are:

Bullara, Forefathers, Twilight Meteor, Hard Spun, For You Reppo, and Sedgefield. . .

I wouldn't include Bullara if it weren't for Johnny V/Pletcher. . . He'll be the higher priced of the two and the fact that Johnny V is on him COULD mean something. . . Cotton Blossom's win in the Schuylerville comes to mind- Pletcher had 2 entered, Johnny V. rode Cotton Blossom and she won at higher odds than the other TAP entry. . .

I like Forefathers but I might toss him because he'll be underlaid. . .

Bullara will draw money because of connections and he has shown great improvement. I dont think his odds will make it worth the stab. Overbet imo.

[SniperSB23]

I don't like Hard Spun at all as a Derby horse but don't be surprised at all to see him move up on the poly. I think he may ultimately turn out to be a good turf horse.

[Sightseek]

For You Reppo

[robfla]

Seems like quite of bit of early speed in the race. SportsTown, Bullara, Forefathers, HardSpun and possibly Starbase all have early zip. I'm using For You Reppo, Twilight Meteor and Sedgefield.

gl

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't get Twilight Meteor at all ( and Bullara is comically bad ). Did anyone take a good look at the field Twilight Meteor beat at Keeneland on Polytrack?

Suffice to say it was more than a little weaker than this field. He will be probably less than a third the price of his actual chances of winning and likely even more.

[paisjpq]

for those people who follow turfway (because I do not) is there a large disadvantage for those on the outside in a route...I can't remember how big the track is and I don't feel like looking it up. thanks.
are there even any other races at turfway that are run at 1 1/8?

[miraja2]

I think this is a really good race in terms of betting, but not in the quality of the field. My top pick here is Joe Got Even.
He is no superstar, but he is a solid and consistent stakes horse on the poly.
Sims and Mena are both tough @TP, and I think the race will set up nicely for this horse's stalker-style.
Unlike some of the horse's in here that have posted flashy numbers while loose on the lead in races with short fields (Hard Spun and Bullara) JGE has been competing against full fields - 11 starters in each of his last two races - and posting figures that are both legitimate and consistent.
I have no idea what his post-time odds will be, but I think he will be a nice price.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

for those people who follow turfway (because I do not) is there a large disadvantage for those on the outside in a route...I can't remember how big the track is and I don't feel like looking it up. thanks.
are there even any other races at turfway that are run at 1 1/8?

Mile circumference, outside posts are fine at a mile and a 1/16 and longer. Even in a bulky field the 10-12 holes are fine.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't get Twilight Meteor at all ( and Bullara is comically bad ). Did anyone take a good look at the field Twilight Meteor beat at Keeneland on Polytrack?

Suffice to say it was more than a little weaker than this field. He will be probably less than a third the price of his actual chances of winning and likely even more.

It was an off the turfer so it isn't surprising that it was a terrible field. I hope no one is betting him on the basis of that race. If he gets bet it should be because someone considers the Hallandale Beach a strong race which I am currently on the fence about. And of course because his trainer is winning everything in sight.

[blackthroatedwind]

I certainly hope the public falls all over Twilight Meteor based on his perfect trip turf win. I think he has very little chance to win this race.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It was an off the turfer so it isn't surprising that it was a terrible field. I hope no one is betting him on the basis of that race. If he gets bet it should be because someone considers the Hallandale Beach a strong race which I am currently on the fence about. And of course because his trainer is winning everything in sight.

I just saw the Beyers and see that he got a mindboggling 97 for the race on the poly. Don't know how they came up with that especially since poly figures seem to come up consistently low. I don't imagine any other figures support that 97.