Circular Quay the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

CQ will not even beat Nobiz in The Wood

That wouldn't prevent him from winning the Derby though.....

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

That wouldn't prevent him from winning the Derby though.....

ok well since everyone is making predictions, he will not win the wood nobiz will and he will not be in the superfecta in the derby....i dont like his running style he will find trouble, and even if he dosent i still dont think he's good enough, i know his pedigree says he can go long and he'd be a classic race type horse, but i think he'd be a devestating miler type with his 1 big run, he could point to races such as the met mile, the carter and the new breeders cup dirt mile

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok well since everyone is making predictions, he will not win the wood nobiz will and he will not be in the superfecta in the derby....i dont like his running style he will find trouble, and even if he dosent i still dont think he's good enough

Well, guess they can't all have as great a shot in the Derby as Bob and John, right?

You're probably on to something here...

[zippyneedsawin]

For those interested, I just found out that CQ's horsehats.. hat.. will be available in a few weeks. BTW, should I pre-order one for you?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

For those interested, I just found out that CQ's horsehats.. hat.. will be available in a few weeks. BTW, should I pre-order one for you?

No, but I want a Scat Daddy one. Seriously.

I think this will be the year of Doug O'Neill; I think he has very good chances with Great Hunter and Cobalt Blue. He has two other chances as well.

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

I think this will be the year of Doug O'Neill; I think he has very good chances with Great Hunter and Cobalt Blue. He has two other chances as well.

lol the year of Doug O'neill thats one of the funniest things ive ever heard, Doug O'neill will not do squat outside of southern california thats a fact

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

ok well since everyone is making predictions, he will not win the wood nobiz will and he will not be in the superfecta in the derby....i dont like his running style he will find trouble, and even if he dosent i still dont think he's good enough, i know his pedigree says he can go long and he'd be a classic race type horse, but i think he'd be a devestating miler type with his 1 big run, he could point to races such as the met mile, the carter and the new breeders cup dirt mile

You may be right about finding trouble, but saying he'll be out of the superfecta is pretty bold, especially considering his record. Throw out the Risen Star when the jockey was thrown right in front of him, and he's never finished worse than 2nd. I think he's almost a lock to hit the board.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

You may be right about finding trouble, but saying he'll be out of the superfecta is pretty bold, especially considering his record. Throw out the Risen Star when the jockey was thrown right in front of him, and he's never finished worse than 2nd. I think he's almost a lock to hit the board.

untill the risen star all he did was win sprints, he never won going long, he just won sprints, then in the risen star he gets dream setup, ketchecan goes very fast early and gives him a perfect setup, i dont think he will make the superfecta in the derby, just my opinion

[sumitas]

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

I think that is already changing and will continue to do so as the trend to send frontrunning sprinters to the Derby if they can get the graded earnings continues. If it keeps up as it is I think it will become extremely difficult to win the Derby if you are within 3 lengths of the speed duel at first call. Even Barbaro was four lengths back at the first call.

[Linny]

Finishing second in 2 G1 routes hardly marks a horse as a "failure" at a route. No one was beating SS in the Juvie, but he was closest at the end. If a criticism was to be made it would be for the race at KEE, where so many closers held the adbatage and he was beaten by Great Hunter.

I like CQ but I'm not handing him the gold trophy quite yet. I don't think he's a closing sprinter though either.

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think that is already changing and will continue to do so as the trend to send frontrunning sprinters to the Derby if they can get the graded earnings continues. If it keeps up as it is I think it will become extremely difficult to win the Derby if you are within 3 lengths of the speed duel at first call. Even Barbaro was four lengths back at the first call.

Agreed. And with more and more horses wanting that prime "stalking" spot will that not set more derbies up for the off the pace type such as not only Unbridled but Monarchos and Giacomo as well. I dont personally like CQ but feel he will be a part of SUperfecta mix

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

They are not. Dude you need serious help.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

As Cardus posted on an earlier thread:

Originally Posted by Cardus

Eleven of the last 25 Derby winners were closers. Here is the list:

Giacomo
Monarchos
Fusaichi Pegasus
Real Quiet
Grindstone
Sea Hero
Lil E. Tee
Strike The Gold
Unbridled
Ferdinand
Gato Del Sol

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

Monarchos was at the rear, Charismatic was well back, Grindstone....I know what you are saying and I prefer somebody in the second tier, but it's not that rare. It's less likely that somebody wires the field.

HEre is the count I get from 1960 to present, 47 data pts, it seems:

23/11/6/7

Closer/stalkers/presser/front runner

Some notes: I counted FuPeg as a closer as he was 6 1/2 back at the 1/2 mile. I had to reclassify Charismatic as stalker as he was w/in 4 len. when he started passing all those horses on the backstretch. Smarty I have as stalker, although the Preakness I thought he pressed. Thunder Gulch reclassed as presser looking at the PPs. Barbaro stalker, although some think of him as a E/P...

I tried to base it on 0-2 lengths=presser; 2-4: stalker, 4 1/2 or more closer. It was not a completely uniform count, some based on a previous internet discussion some based on charts, some based on trips notes from the Ky derby site. BUt the trip notes are pretty good in that regard, if they say "well in hand" you can assume closer, if they say "never far away" assume pressing, etc. Also I didnt make it uniformly based on 2nd call, if it was a close call I tried to use best 2 out of first 3 calls. But in most cases, the 2nd call was descriptive.

If you think this is off, send me a PM and I'll send the complete list...

[JJP]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

I can think of a few besides Unbridled. Strike the Gold, Grindstone, Giacomo, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Sea Hero, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Gato Del Sol and Pleasant Colony were all closers who won the Derby,

As for CQ, if he doesn't win, it won't be because his style, IMO. I don't think he's Pletcher's best 3YO, let alone the nations best.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

untill the risen star all he did was win sprints, he never won going long, he just won sprints, then in the risen star he gets dream setup, ketchecan goes very fast early and gives him a perfect setup, i dont think he will make the superfecta in the derby, just my opinion

Actually, a horse fell down in front of him in the Risen Star.

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

untill the risen star all he did was win sprints, he never won going long, he just won sprints, then in the risen star he gets dream setup, ketchecan goes very fast early and gives him a perfect setup, i dont think he will make the superfecta in the derby, just my opinion

And how far is long prior to the Risen Star, Most of the horses on the trail were all doing 6f to a mile, not saying some didn't stretch to 1 1/16, but there are more that were in sprints than not i believe. btw, not predicting anything here, winners, supers...nuttin'!!