Cobalt Blue

[miraja2]

I really like Air Commander in this one after his sharp 4f work on Tuesday. His Beyer figs have improved in each start, and I think that is accurate. He has improved with each start, and I think the cut back from 9 to 8.5 will actually fit him well in this particular start. He will also be carrying 4 less lbs than he did in his last.
I'm not sold at all on Cobalt blue. He was all-out to win his last, which was an N1X with only 4 others in the race. I'll pass.

[mclem10011]

Let's see how Cobalt runs this weekend, maybe then this one jumps in the mix!

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really like Air Commander in this one after his sharp 4f work on Tuesday. His Beyer figs have improved in each start, and I think that is accurate. He has improved with each start, and I think the cut back from 9 to 8.5 will actually fit him well in this particular start. He will also be carrying 4 less lbs than he did in his last.
I'm not sold at all on Cobalt blue. He was all-out to win his last, which was an N1X with only 4 others in the race. I'll pass.

Cobalt Blue was all out but what horse would not be with 21 4/5 and 44 4/5 fractions... ? He probably ran the first 2 f in 22 and 1/5 but he was right on the 44 4/5. Thats just fast. Apparently they think he can stretch this 6 furlong race out. I dont think this 6f race tells us much except that the horse has speed. The horse really looks good though.

Air Commander has gotten better but he just looks slow. I hate to go just by times but he looked slow and the times were slow. This should be an interesting race. But as a Grade II it just looks really bad.

Why are so many other West Coast or other Derby contenders passing on this race?

I'm not impressed with Air Commander. He reminds me of a slightly better Point of Impact.

[Danzig]

from bloodhorse:

Determining which horse a jockey rides leading up to the Kentucky Derby on May 5 can occur voluntarily or involuntarily. Crossroads develop and decisions are made. For Garrett Gomez and his agent, Ron Anderson, one such determination involved Cobalt Blue (Just In Case), Grapelli (Worth Watching) and Air Commander in Saturday’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes.

Gomez, who had ridden Cobalt Blue and Air Commander to victory in their last races, opted for Air Commander, a son of 2001 Horse of the Year Point Given trained by Bob Baffert.

“He’s got a little more seasoning than some of the other colts,” Gomez said of Air Commander, who has won his last two starts in a four-race career. “He’s run two turns three times now and that gives him an advantage, in my mind. He’s a very talented colt, as are the others. He’s got some quirks which we’re trying to resolve, but he seems like he’s getting better.

“Not taking anything away from Cobalt Blue, but I think right now he might be a little behind some of these colts. I mean, he could win, but my agent and I had to make a decision. You never want to be in that situation, but it happened that both horses are running in the same race and the bridge had to be crossed.

Victor Espinoza takes over on Cobalt Blue, who is owned by Merv Griffin and trained by Doug O’Neill. Cobalt Blue has had three races, all sprints

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I'm not impressed with Air Commander. He reminds me of a slightly better Point of Impact.

I'm with you on Air Commander. He's yet to run fast, too.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Cobalt Blue was all out but what horse would not be with 21 4/5 and 44 4/5 fractions... ? He probably ran the first 2 f in 22 and 1/5 but he was right on the 44 4/5. Thats just fast. Apparently they think he can stretch this 6 furlong race out. I dont think this 6f race tells us much except that the horse has speed. The horse really looks good though.

Air Commander has gotten better but he just looks slow. I hate to go just by times but he looked slow and the times were slow. This should be an interesting race. But as a Grade II it just looks really bad.

Why are so many other West Coast or other Derby contenders passing on this race?

I guess the trainers get lured by all the options they have. When i was in california you had the San Vicente, Felipe, and the Derby at Santa Anita. If you were a non stakes winner you could prep your horse for the SA Derby in the Bradbury. Now they have messed with the distances and timing, and it leads to short fields. Pletcher was quoted as saying that the drop in distance is why he is skipping this race with Ravel and waiting for the SA Derby.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really like Air Commander in this one after his sharp 4f work on Tuesday. His Beyer figs have improved in each start, and I think that is accurate. He has improved with each start, and I think the cut back from 9 to 8.5 will actually fit him well in this particular start. He will also be carrying 4 less lbs than he did in his last.
I'm not sold at all on Cobalt blue. He was all-out to win his last, which was an N1X with only 4 others in the race. I'll pass.

LOL cobalt was not all out to win his last, he was only getting stronger as the race went on and appeared to be crying out for more real estate, galloped out great!

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

LOL cobalt was not all out to win his last, he was only getting stronger as the race went on and appeared to be crying out for more real estate, galloped out great!

I agree. Cobalt Blue is by a sire who loved real estate, Golden Missile. He almost won an Eclipse when he was four-years-old and it was not for sprinting. His graded stakes wins were in distance races. Sons of A.P. Indy are passing on their liking for running long.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

I agree. Cobalt Blue is by a sire who loved real estate, Golden Missile. He almost won an Eclipse when he was four-years-old and it was not for sprinting. His graded stakes wins were in distance races. Sons of A.P. Indy are passing on their liking for running long.

I may be wrong, but I think Golden Missile only won one stakes race as a 4yo, and that was a G3. I don't think he was in contention for an eclipse award off that effort.
At age 5 he won 2 graded stakes races.
I don't know if I would say that a horse which never won a stakes at 10f "loved real estate."

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I may be wrong, but I think Golden Missile only won one stakes race as a 4yo, and that was a G3. I don't think he was in contention for an eclipse award off that effort.
At age 5 he won 2 graded stakes races.
I don't know if I would say that a horse which never won a stakes at 10f "loved real estate."

Owner: Adena Springs
Breeder: W. Bruce Lunsford
State Bred: KY
Winnings: 25 Starts: 7 - 7 - 4, $2,194,510

At 3: WON Cumberland S. -L
At 4: WON Widener H. -G3, Skip Away S. -L; 2ND Hawthorne Gold Cup -G3; 3RD Breeders' Cup Classic -G1, Saratoga Breeders' Cup H. -G2
At 5: WON Stephen Foster H. -G2, Pimlico Special H. -G1; 2ND Donn H. -G1, Kentucky Cup Classic -G2, Westchester H. -G3; 3RD Hawthorne Gold Cup H. -G3

Stands at Adena Springs in Midway, Ky.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

i still laugh about the day he was 1-5 in the gold cup and kent d personally said to me"this is the best handicap horse in the country lil brother ill win by a city block" well needless to say kent made a foolish ride and chased a rabbit and got the horse beat by hometown dust on the bottle with tim doocy aboard, coincidentally dust on the bottle could even win a allowance race afterwards, never won another race period!

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

well i said a couple months ago he was my early derby pick and some thought i was way off but hes makin me proud and makin me some money@the windows but obviously his owners more in both respects LOL! whats really awesome tho is hes comin here to run in the ILL derby next

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

Owner: Adena Springs
Breeder: W. Bruce Lunsford
State Bred: KY
Winnings: 25 Starts: 7 - 7 - 4, $2,194,510

At 3: WON Cumberland S. -L
At 4: WON Widener H. -G3, Skip Away S. -L; 2ND Hawthorne Gold Cup -G3; 3RD Breeders' Cup Classic -G1, Saratoga Breeders' Cup H. -G2
At 5: WON Stephen Foster H. -G2, Pimlico Special H. -G1; 2ND Donn H. -G1, Kentucky Cup Classic -G2, Westchester H. -G3; 3RD Hawthorne Gold Cup H. -G3

Stands at Adena Springs in Midway, Ky.

I was pretty damn close!
(Although of course I cheated and looked it up before posting)

I dont trust many jockey's ability to distinguish between horses that have a better chance in a race. I recently recall all the fuss about Out of Gwedda and Johnny V. is aboard and gets rocked by Roxy. Pletchers backup in the race. Damn is Pletcher loaded or what...

Originally Posted by miraja2

I may be wrong, but I think Golden Missile only won one stakes race as a 4yo, and that was a G3. I don't think he was in contention for an eclipse award off that effort.
At age 5 he won 2 graded stakes races.
I don't know if I would say that a horse which never won a stakes at 10f "loved real estate."

I was wrong about his age; he was five. Perhaps it was a weak year, but he just missed the award. My point was that he was not a sprinter and Golden Missile is by a sire known for getting longer distance horses.

Post time in 3 minutes. Got Cobalt singled for the late double.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Post time in 3 minutes. Got Cobalt singled for the late double.

Rooting for ya PP...$67.80 for $1. Hope you have it heavy...

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

LOL cobalt was not all out to win his last, he was only getting stronger as the race went on and appeared to be crying out for more real estate, galloped out great!

You may be right, I am going strictly on memory here, but I remember thinking he was in a bit of a battle down the stretch. Going straight from 6f to 8.5f doesn't seem like a good proposition to me. I don't think Air Commander is any superstar either, but against this field, I like his chances.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You may be right, I am going strictly on memory here, but I remember thinking he was in a bit of a battle down the stretch. Going straight from 6f to 8.5f doesn't seem like a good proposition to me. I don't think Air Commander is any superstar either, but against this field, I like his chances.

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