Circular Quay: Just a Deep Closer or More?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Has he gone 10 furlongs yet? That turn of foot isn't always the same at a distance. Aldebaran anyone.

I don't know if that is a fair comparison given that Aldebaran was by Mr. P. and CQ is by Thunder Gulch.
We all know that pedigree does not guarantee anything, but one of the things that has been exciting about CQ from the begining is that he was very effective in one-turn races, and yet he was by a horse in Thunder Gulch that showed real quality at 10f (and beyond), and had already sired a multiple-classic winner in Point Given. Does this ensure that CQ will like going 9f or further? No, but it does make it more likely.

[tycharles01]

He could win the derby as could about 10 other horses right now

Just depends on who is in. If there are some straight speed horses a closer has a great chance however if is just your normal stalk whoever is out front, there is no way that a closer could come throught all that traffic to win

Remember guys the Derby is not a Gr 3 with 7 horses entered and a closer is someone who come threw at the end. Kinda hard to go from 15 back threw all those horses

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't know if that is a fair comparison given that Aldebaran was by Mr. P. and CQ is by Thunder Gulch.
We all know that pedigree does not guarantee anything, but one of the things that has been exciting about CQ from the begining is that he was very effective in one-turn races, and yet he was by a horse in Thunder Gulch that showed real quality at 10f (and beyond), and had already sired a multiple-classic winner in Point Given. Does this ensure that CQ will like going 9f or further? No, but it does make it more likely.

Oh no. Not the dreaded Point Given again.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Oh no. Not the dreaded Point Given again.

I don't follow.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

He could win the derby as could about 10 other horses right now

Just depends on who is in. If there are some straight speed horses a closer has a great chance however if is just your normal stalk whoever is out front, there is no way that a closer could come throught all that traffic to win

Remember guys the Derby is not a Gr 3 with 7 horses entered and a closer is someone who come threw at the end. Kinda hard to go from 15 back threw all those horses

Yes but as Cardus pointed out in an earlier post, a lot of other closers have done it. I am not saying CQ will....but it is not exactly impossible.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't follow.

Nothing...Its just a basic overrated thing. I mean Somer has him in his top 50 of all time I believe....Nothing to do with the distance question Mira.

[Merlinsky]

All I know is people go on about traffic in the Derby and how so-and-so had bad racing luck but I've always thought closers that win the race are the ones that make their own luck. You don't only have a jockey knowing what hole to go through but you have a horse willing to do it, even if it's the tightest squeeze he's ever seen in his life. Maybe he bounces off the rail or cuts between horses and wants to win so badly he won't take no for an answer when a lesser horse might've said 'hey it's been a hard race, I'm calling it a day'. I think it can be done and masterful to watch.

Strike the Gold was my first Derby pick and first winner so I have a certain affection for a horse that sparks comparisons to the ol' boy--sure I was a total sucker for the sob story they told on Alydar during the Derby coverage but I liked the look of StG in and of himself.

Originally Posted by Cardus

....Looking at the last 25 years, closers are just as likely to win the Derby as are stalkers.

I'm not defending CQ as much as I am illustrating that deep closers can win the Derby.

I"d like to see your count, because the last time we did this on another forum we got about twice the number of closers as stalkers counting from 1980 to 2005. I think we got 20 closers/10 stalkers/6 front runners.

I dont know where we stuck pressers perhaps in w/ front runners, dont recall.

SINce then Ive tried to count from 1960-present and the ratio does not quite hold up, but it's still somethign like: 50%-30%-20% (closer/stalker/frontrunner).

So I love it when people say these closers will not get through the traffic. But they do, more than half the time, one of them comes in first...

Would be interested if you have made a similar count.

OH Cardus...Sorry I did not see you had made your count earlier in the thread. I just posted a little too quickly.

Anyhow, from the last discussion we had on another forum (could be PaceAdvantage, or maybe one of the long dead ones..) we had a few more to add to your list.

Going back to 1980, add the following:

Charismatic; Thunder Gulch; ALysheba and Pleasant Colony.

I recall Charismatic and I have TG and Aly. on tape but if this is not right let me know. I"m always interested in historical comparisons and what not so I'd like to hear what you think.

Charismatic I think was a closer, I recall seeing him on the backstretch of some race the derby I guess just picking off horses, from that race I recall he made his move before the turn, which sort of complicates the analysis. At the BEL he was chasing the speedy Vision and Verse, was it???

Pleasant Colony is mentioned by one poster as being a deep closer so..

Anyhow, let me know what you think, this is always an interesting topic.

Oh btw: we did not figure out what Swale was but I will go look that up now...

OKay, looks like Thunder Gulch is a presser from the PPs, I see. Looks pretty clear on that.

Alysheba I got to think is a closer he made a move prior to the turn which puts him closer when they get to the stretch but he's coming from far back so closer...

Pl. Colony, same he makes that move on the back stretch, he was way back.

Swale. More of E/P, I guess from the derby chart. He pressed the pace and pulled away as the got to the top of the stretch. Sounds a lot like Barbaro, huh? Dont recall seeing this race...

In the 1960s, I count about 6 closers, 2 stalkers (NoDance/Venetian Way) and 2 presser/need to lead (KauaiKing/Lucky Debonair).

So it seems we are approaching a ratio of 50/30/20 or so..


BTW: In thefirst post, I did not mean to imply that I was disagreeig w/ Cardus overall take on closers, I was merely quatifying the numbers. It sounds like I am disagreeing with his overall point.

Okay I've redone my count, some of this based on internet discussion, some of this I looked bact at the trip notes, some PPs. Starting from 1960 with 47 data pts, it seems to break down as:

23/11/6/7

Closer/stalkers/presser/front runner

Some notes: I counted FuPeg as a closer as he was 6 1/2 back at the 1/2 mile. I had to reclassify Charismatic as stalker as he was w/in 4 len. when he started passing all those horses on the backstretch. Smarty I have as stalker, although the Preakness I thought he pressed. Thunder Gulch reclassed as presser looking at the PPs. Barbaro stalker, although some think of him as a E/P. .