"Inside" information & misguided public?

[robfla]

reminds me of Gulfstream and a trainer Guiseppe Iandisernia, "training" for THE BIG STABLE. They ran another one today that won at about 7-1. ( GP Race 1 )They started off the meet with some $100+ winners. The public is starting to get hip to this stable, and the 12-1 morning line went to 7-1. two weeks ago they had a 20-1 morning line win @ 9-2 ( after two speed scratches made the MSW drop down lone speed ). I can assure you the people that own the horses are sending it in. I went to the winner's circle 2 weeks ago and recognized the owners and they have many other horses with another trainer, so they probably just set this guy up to get great value, as he is an unknown.

Prior to today's race jockey AO Stanley's ROI for the trainer was $12.04. Not too shabby, eh?


are situations like this good for the game?

[blackthroatedwind]

It's a horseplayer's job to understand money being bet on first time starters.

To start with the Bush horse at Aqueduct today....Tom Bush shows a 3% win percentage ( in his case 1-34 ) with first time starters in DRF. Yet, this horse was bet like IRON. That's all you need to know. His workouts ( which, yes, I don't trust ) don't matter. You see plenty of horses making their first starts with fast works, sometimes from good trainers, that take no money at the windows and they rarely win. When a trainer like Tom Bush, who's a good trainer but has done poorly with firsters, gets bet like today you, the horseplayer, are at fault for not using him. The board is WAY more telling than workouts will ever be...at least printed works that is. Even if they are accurate, unless you or someone you know sees them, you have no idea what conditions they were earned under.

The bottom line.....horseplayers are MUCH better off getting to know what kind of action trainers take on their firsters ( live and dead ) and following the board from there. Some trainers are dead at 4-1....while others are live at 12-1.

Now, the Big Stable.....when they won with their first firster of the meet ( they won with one more ) I called Beyer right after the race and said the putover horse of the year just won. A trainer we never heard of, a jockey we never heard of, and the horse aired. It did NOT seem random. Now, luckily for me, Beyer noted this better than I did, as he was the one who reminded me when they had their next firster. We both bet.....and scored with the horse at 35-1. Subsequently, the horse that won today's first, was bet VERY strongly in his next start, after finishing around last at 89-1 in his first Gulfstream start. That was enough for me....and I cashed on a visually impressive win at 10-1. I made a small bet on another winner of there's, a 9-2 shot dropping from MSW to maiden claimers, who flashed speed in his debut.

The lesson is that the signals were sent out by the Big Stable very early in the meet, and without any information, some of us were able to capitalize on their victories. That's our job. I'm sure I also miss a lot but it is incumbant on every horse player to figure out for themselves how to make money on putovers. It can be done.

[robfla]

I was curious, sir. I read in a post a while back that you asked Mr. Beyer not to write that article that he did about this topic. Why is that? if i can be so bold to ask

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by robfla

I was curious, sir. I read in a post a while back that you asked Mr. Beyer not to write that article that he did about this topic. Why is that? if i can be so bold to ask

Well, I was sort of kidding him, but honestly, I didn't feel a need to share that information with the general public. It's not like I was doing any type of public handicapping at that time.

[robfla]

thats what i thought. thanks for the response

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by robfla

thats what i thought. thanks for the response

Just don't call me sir again!

[robfla]

lol... i wanted to get your attention..

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a horseplayer's job to understand money being bet on first time starters.

To start with the Bush horse at Aqueduct today....Tom Bush shows a 3% win percentage ( in his case 1-34 ) with first time starters in DRF. Yet, this horse was bet like IRON. That's all you need to know. His workouts ( which, yes, I don't trust ) don't matter. You see plenty of horses making their first starts with fast works, sometimes from good trainers, that take no money at the windows and they rarely win. When a trainer like Tom Bush, who's a good trainer but has done poorly with firsters, gets bet like today you, the horseplayer, are at fault for not using him. The board is WAY more telling than workouts will ever be...at least printed works that is. Even if they are accurate, unless you or someone you know sees them, you have no idea what conditions they were earned under.

The bottom line.....horseplayers are MUCH better off getting to know what kind of action trainers take on their firsters ( live and dead ) and following the board from there. Some trainers are dead at 4-1....while others are live at 12-1.

Now, the Big Stable.....when they won with their first firster of the meet ( they won with one more ) I called Beyer right after the race and said the putover horse of the year just won. A trainer we never heard of, a jockey we never heard of, and the horse aired. It did NOT seem random. Now, luckily for me, Beyer noted this better than I did, as he was the one who reminded me when they had their next firster. We both bet.....and scored with the horse at 35-1. Subsequently, the horse that won today's first, was bet VERY strongly in his next start, after finishing around last at 89-1 in his first Gulfstream start. That was enough for me....and I cashed on a visually impressive win at 10-1. I made a small bet on another winner of there's, a 9-2 shot dropping from MSW to maiden claimers, who flashed speed in his debut.

The lesson is that the signals were sent out by the Big Stable very early in the meet, and without any information, some of us were able to capitalize on their victories. That's our job. I'm sure I also miss a lot but it is incumbant on every horse player to figure out for themselves how to make money on putovers. It can be done.

I'm really glad you pointed this out, because I, in my infancy of betting, run up to the windows thinking I got some clever price on the horse trained by a better 'first time out trainer' when generally that isn't the case. Excellent point and I think sometimes as a novice you over-emphasize the stats that are in the pp's like trainer/jock combos, sire, lay-offs etc.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a horseplayer's job to understand money being bet on first time starters.

To start with the Bush horse at Aqueduct today....Tom Bush shows a 3% win percentage ( in his case 1-34 ) with first time starters in DRF. Yet, this horse was bet like IRON. That's all you need to know. His workouts ( which, yes, I don't trust ) don't matter. You see plenty of horses making their first starts with fast works, sometimes from good trainers, that take no money at the windows and they rarely win. When a trainer like Tom Bush, who's a good trainer but has done poorly with firsters, gets bet like today you, the horseplayer, are at fault for not using him. The board is WAY more telling than workouts will ever be...at least printed works that is. Even if they are accurate, unless you or someone you know sees them, you have no idea what conditions they were earned under.

The bottom line.....horseplayers are MUCH better off getting to know what kind of action trainers take on their firsters ( live and dead ) and following the board from there. Some trainers are dead at 4-1....while others are live at 12-1.

Now, the Big Stable.....when they won with their first firster of the meet ( they won with one more ) I called Beyer right after the race and said the putover horse of the year just won. A trainer we never heard of, a jockey we never heard of, and the horse aired. It did NOT seem random. Now, luckily for me, Beyer noted this better than I did, as he was the one who reminded me when they had their next firster. We both bet.....and scored with the horse at 35-1. Subsequently, the horse that won today's first, was bet VERY strongly in his next start, after finishing around last at 89-1 in his first Gulfstream start. That was enough for me....and I cashed on a visually impressive win at 10-1. I made a small bet on another winner of there's, a 9-2 shot dropping from MSW to maiden claimers, who flashed speed in his debut.

The lesson is that the signals were sent out by the Big Stable very early in the meet, and without any information, some of us were able to capitalize on their victories. That's our job. I'm sure I also miss a lot but it is incumbant on every horse player to figure out for themselves how to make money on putovers. It can be done.

Well you should have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Well you ahould have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. I was so sick that I couldn't get out of bed. As you probably know the entire Pick-6 pool has to be distributed on the last day of every meet as well as the final day of the year. There was also a carryover going into the day. As it happened I liked a Pat Kelly horse quite a bit that day named Unction. I made a pretty good bet on him, as well as the 8th winner, a shipper I believe named Double Calvados ( or something like that ) I also played a small Pick-3 into the horse. Because I was sick, and the races weren't yet on TV, I couldn't watch, and fell asleep. When I got up, I found out that Unction, who was in the second leg of the Pick-6, paid $57 and Double Calvados won the feature ( 4 or 5 to 1 ) and I hit the Pick-3 on a small 2 x 3 x 1 play. I made a bunch of money, but when I started to get a clearer head, I realized a Kimmel firster, at 2-1 ( and this was when he really used to win with firsters ), won one of the other legs of the Pick-6 and a Jolley maiden ( when he used to win ) won the other leg at 2-1 and the Pick-6 paid around $55K. I played the Pick-6 frequently then, and there was really little doubt, at least to me, that I would have hit it. But, hey, that's the way it goes.

However, the next day I found out that someone I knew had hit it. Now, that's cool. But then I found out that he only hit it because one of my few friends I had told about Unction told him I really liked the horse, so he threw him in.

It didn't make me feel better considering the entire situation. It was one thing for me to have been out of action but it was another to hear that someone else won the money I felt I could easily have had because of me. Nothing against the guy that won, I'm happy for him, but I also decided that I would do whatever I could not to let something like that happen again. So, unless I am being paid for my selections, i.e. doing handicapping shows, you'll have to excuse me if I am frugal with my opinion.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. .

great memory BTW. Lets see, December 31st 1994, I was 11 years old and probably begging my Mommy to let me stay up til midnight!

umm. also, if you give me a 35-1 and i hit i'll send you a percentage? Is that ok with u? (dont think my $20 win bet will effect the pool too much, unless the horse is at tampa)

[blackthroatedwind]

I wouldn't take your money.

It's easy to want the horse now knowing it won.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I wouldn't take your money.

It's easy to want the horse now knowing it won.

how about next time?

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. I was so sick that I couldn't get out of bed. As you probably know the entire Pick-6 pool has to be distributed on the last day of every meet as well as the final day of the year. There was also a carryover going into the day. As it happened I liked a Pat Kelly horse quite a bit that day named Unction. I made a pretty good bet on him, as well as the 8th winner, a shipper I believe named Double Calvados ( or something like that ) I also played a small Pick-3 into the horse. Because I was sick, and the races weren't yet on TV, I couldn't watch, and fell asleep. When I got up, I found out that Unction, who was in the second leg of the Pick-6, paid $57 and Double Calvados won the feature ( 4 or 5 to 1 ) and I hit the Pick-3 on a small 2 x 3 x 1 play. I made a bunch of money, but when I started to get a clearer head, I realized a Kimmel firster, at 2-1 ( and this was when he really used to win with firsters ), won one of the other legs of the Pick-6 and a Jolley maiden ( when he used to win ) won the other leg at 2-1 and the Pick-6 paid around $55K. I played the Pick-6 frequently then, and there was really little doubt, at least to me, that I would have hit it. But, hey, that's the way it goes.

However, the next day I found out that someone I knew had hit it. Now, that's cool. But then I found out that he only hit it because one of my few friends I had told about Unction told him I really liked the horse, so he threw him in.

It didn't make me feel better considering the entire situation. It was one thing for me to have been out of action but it was another to hear that someone else won the money I felt I could easily have had because of me. Nothing against the guy that won, I'm happy for him, but I also decided that I would do whatever I could not to let something like that happen again. So, unless I am being paid for my selections, i.e. doing handicapping shows, you'll have to excuse me if I am frugal with my opinion.

Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.

Gee, thanks for your permission. What a great relief to me.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gee, thanks for your permission. What a great relief to me.

You are welcome.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What exactly does this mean?

My guess is that it was not meant as a compliment...

[Cajungator26]

Why is everyone on Andy's case this morning? Cut the guy a break... thank God that some people can pick some nice winners. I sure as hell couldn't manage that this weekend.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan

Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.

why should blackthroatedwind, or anyone do all the extensive work for a message board to gravy train off it?

I dont think the majority of people fully grasp the level of effort we are talking about.

[Payson Dave]

Just Wondering...Is Freddie Bond still clocking at Gulfstream?...now there is a character...What about old man Cole...the crankiest SOB to ever clock at Saratoga.