FG 4

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Grits

STS, early this year, around the opening of Gulfstream, longtime handicapper and writer, Dick Powell wrote a column that had a great deal to say about rail placement. This was rail placement particular to Gulfstream. He had kept records throughout last year's meet, and maybe prior, as well. I'm not sure.

Anyway, if I recall correctly, he indicated that the rail, when placed at 0-12 feet out would favor inside speed horses. When the rail was set outward at 82-84 feet, this was a time when horses racing wide and closing were more favorable.

I found it all interesting and helpful. www.TSN may still have a copy of his column.

Thanks, Grits.

Someone told me about his article and I'll try to read it sometime. I'd be surprised a bit I guess, but not overly so if what you mentioned is the case. To be honest, I love the racing at Gulfstream but not wagering there. I bet $10-$25 a race at Gulf 2-3 days a week. Hopefully, my money at Gulf is slightly less "Dead" than average, so I'm donating $1-$2 a race. I can live with that as a fair price for seeing good racing in great weather. In any event, I'm far from being any kind of expert at Gulfstream.

A couple things...

Most important, there is a world of difference between grass racing on a 1-mile course vs a 7/8 with a chute. As far as rail placement on a 1-mile course, I agree wider turns hurt speed but I also believe the rail-out shorter run to the first turn hurts off-pace horses as well trip-wise. Personally, I think in these shorter 2-turn races, speed plays more poorly in rail-out races due to the increased pace that occurs as jockeys try to get over before the turn comes up. To me, intuitively, this all ads up to trip as a bigger factor in shorter 2-turn grace races, but that's true anyways, imo.

On a 7/8 course, the dynamic of greater value is post in chute races as well as run to the first turn combined with running style. I looked at several hundred Calder turf races over four years and found very few meaningful results based solely on rail placement. Here's a few things. My guess is that other 7/8 courses with chutes would share the same results but I'm not sure:
1. Inside post is incredibly important in chute races, more so with rail-out.
2. Rail out is good for speed at 5F. But it's a small sample.
3. Rail out is bad for speed at 7.5F (shortest 2-turn distance)

But none of this is very surprising since these are the prevailing trends at these distances.

F = Front = Within 1 length of lead at the two main points of call
P = Press = Within from 1.25 to 5 lengths at both points
C = Close = Other

Here are the overall win %s by running style/distance:
Sprint: F= 38% P= 48% C= 14%
Chute: F= 17% P= 41% C= 42%
7.5 F (Straight): F= 12% P= 35% C= 53%

This is all limited-use information aside from having some sense of what kind of running style and post position benefits horses at different distances on a 7/8 track. But when you play a track with few shippers, I think it's very useful, especially when horses change distances and posts.

As always, trip and pace are the biggest factors when I look at betting any grass race. Rail placement is way down on my list.

Good luck.