FG 4

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

BSpencer: I cannot comment on your grasp of horizontal wagering and can only offer my own opinion. Although Ketchikan was the only horse I could have played in that leg, he did not have to win. I was much more confident in the other legs admittedly because of spreading. Most pick 4 players and almost all pick six players outspend their competition as their edge; my approach is to out handicap them. Empirically, singling the favorite will clear the race some thirty percent of the time, and taking the top two selections some fifty percent.

Obviously using two or more horses in a race in all likelihood will give one a better chance of surviving a leg, but most certainly any single is the strongest individual horse opinion a player has, otherwise it's tough to defend the play.

You won't " out handicap " them. It's a cute concept, but an immature one, and sadly they will probably " out handicap " and out spend you. Your competition is not nearly as weak as you may presume. The sooner a player figures out he's not trying to prove anything, and realizes playing the game is about making money, the sooner he will have a chance to actually achieve the right goal.