Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I just don't think betting future pools are the best wagers to be making. Not only is there a strong chance that you will lose the wager because your horse doesn't even run in the Derby (which to me takes away the fun of wagering) but you are also giving up your money for more than 3 months when you could be making interest on it. I need instant gratification from my betting dollar. To each their own though. It may be parimutual but what is the takeout?

Are you serious about the "instant gratification"? The only "fun of wagering" for me is winning. Losing a race by my horse finishing second isn't any more fun for me than losing a race by my horse not starting (from a future bet).

Factoring in the chance that a horse doesn't start is just one more variable, and it's one that I can probably estimate better than the casual bettor. Therefore, it's one more way I have an edge over the casual bettor.

Your comment about "giving up your money for more than 3 months" is a good argument. If you have to make a choice between a good bet going off today and a future bet with the same edge, than the future bet has to take a back seat. However, if your future bet is competing with bank interest, then it doesn't have to be all that good. You will make less than 1.5% on your money with bank interest between now and the Derby. If your future bet has a 3% edge, it's better than bank interest.

I am reasonably certain that one of the highest EV bets I made last year was in Future Pool 1.

btw, I'd certainly agree that most of the entries are bad bets. Anytime someone is taking 16% out of the pool, most or all of the entries are going to be bad bets.

--Dunbar