Invasor 1 to 9

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Nice work, DrugS! None off by more than 1 except for Curlin's which was off by 2.

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

[Linny]

Invasor (like most of the others listed) was not all out to win. He was hand ridden.

At this time last year, I had 'Salt on my "Derby Dozen" and at least feel somewhat vindicated by his recent development. When doing my list I try to focus only on what I see, not on any opinions/comments from trainers. I try not to focus only on those trained by people I know. I spoke to Nick last summer about 'Salt and he told me that had I asked him, I would not have had the colt so high. He (horse) was very nervous and edgy, talented by immature. He was settling in well by the time he got to the Spa.

The horse that surprised me (pleasantly) was Chatain. At the top of the lane I thought he might win it.

[SniperSB23]

Blackthroatedwind, I'm curious as to how you assessed the track yesterday in regards to the bias. I can certainly buy that the rail was incredibly kind to horses going into the stretch but I have a tough time believing that the rail was golden in the stretch when the horse that opened the most ground in the stretch was Curlin who was nowhere near the rail. Did we see an otherworldly performance by Curlin or was the bias not as pronounced as people are making it out to be?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Blackthroatedwind, I'm curious as to how you assessed the track yesterday in regards to the bias. I can certainly buy that the rail was incredibly kind to horses going into the stretch but I have a tough time believing that the rail was golden in the stretch when the horse that opened the most ground in the stretch was Curlin who was nowhere near the rail. Did we see an otherworldly performance by Curlin or was the bias not as pronounced as people are making it out to be?

I don't think it was a gold rail, or even really close, but I suppose it was probably the best path and that is reasonably validated by some earlier results. However, I don't think the rail skewed the results particularly. I will say that making up considerable ground wasn't easy, however in a race like the feature, with a $10K claimer setting the pace, it is impossible for the speeds to hold.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't think it was a gold rail, or even really close, but I suppose it was probably the best path and that is reasonably validated by some earlier results. However, I don't think the rail skewed the results particularly. I will say that making up considerable ground wasn't easy, however in a race like the feature, with a $10K claimer setting the pace, it is impossible for the speeds to hold.

Thanks, yeah that purchase by Reddam just keeps looking worse and worse.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

Invasor (like most of the others listed) was not all out to win. He was hand ridden.

He was hit at least 4 times between the 1/4 pole and 1/16 th pole. He was hand ridden the last 40 yards.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

Thats right, everyone seems to only be focused on the check-up , saying that it may have cost only one length.

The way I look at it, is from the perspective of what was the effect of the total incident? I counted 11 seconds between the time that Jara first slows him because of not having room until the point when the rail opened and he started with the whip. During this time several things happened including just waiting, trying to go out, then checking-up and redirecting inside. This eleven seconds is why it was Invasors worst speed rating.

As someone else mentioned, all Jara was supposed to do was to keep him with a clear path to the wire, even if that meant floating him out wide. He is not a horse that requires some tricky rail move to win. His job was to keep him out of trouble only and somehow he managed to run right into trouble. Maybe he just got unlucky and he didn't have other good options, but I do question the move up on the rail.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Thats right, everyone seems to only be focused on the check-up , saying that it may have cost only one length.

The way I look at it, is from the perspective of what was the effect of the total incident? I counted 11 seconds between the time that Jara first slows him because of not having room until the point when the rail opened and he started with the whip. During this time several things happened including just waiting, trying to go out, then checking-up and redirecting inside. This eleven seconds is why it was Invasors worst speed rating.

As someone else mentioned, all Jara was supposed to do was to keep him with a clear path to the wire, even if that meant floating him out wide. He is not a horse that requires some tricky rail move to win. His job was to keep him out of trouble only and somehow he managed to run right into trouble. Maybe he just got unlucky and he didn't have other good options, but I do question the move up on the rail.

i watched the replay 4 more times and i count maybe 3 seconds, he was riding right up until maybe a second before he tried to steer him to the inside

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

i watched the replay 4 more times and i count maybe 3 seconds, he was riding right up until maybe a second before he tried to steer him to the inside

cannon he was in a drive and if he would have been able to find room to the outside he could have continued the drive and moved on by quite easily, however he ran out of room and Jara had to stop the drive and just coast, waiting for room. that is where i came up with eleven seconds.
yes he was still riding, but he was not running his race at his speed during this time. maybe I'm the only person that looks at it this way. its the length of time that the horse was prohibited from running like he can.

[Pointg5]

Good performance, not great, saved ground, had trouble and beat an average field...

I really like this horse, he came back from Dubai in good shape last year, I hope he can do it again...

[Pointg5]

One thing that I didn't like was that he was far off of the pace, he's been a stalker in the past. Once you see a horse that would stalk start to come off the pace, it's usually a bad sign. It was only one race and they were going fast up front, so it may be nothing...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

cannon he was in a drive and if he would have been able to find room to the outside he could have continued the drive and moved on by quite easily, however he ran out of room and Jara had to stop the drive and just coast, waiting for room. that is where i came up with eleven seconds.
yes he was still riding, but he was not running his race at his speed during this time. maybe I'm the only person that looks at it this way. its the length of time that the horse was prohibited from running like he can.

that's what i was asking about...had he not lost momentum while waiting for a hole, and then the check....i think the final time is out of whack due to more than just the clip. glad i'm not the only one thinking along those lines.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I actually think the trouble was a little more serious than BTW and Cannon seem to.

However, the way the race was run must be taken into context when evaluating the trip. Let's assume that he gets through perfectly on the far turn, and goes on to win consideribly easier....

If that would have happened, the horse would have been the beneficiary of the absolute DREAM trip.

That very fast early pace played to his advantage more so than any other horse in that race, he would have saved every inch of ground on a day when some think the rail was the best place to be, and would have roared away from the field though still very moderate late fractions for that kind of horse.

It was obvious before the race, that this horse would get a setup today, and this was a comically moderate field for a Grade 1 race. The only horse with any talent in the field, Chatain, was stretching out and going two-turns for the first time in his career. Nevermind, that he's bred to run about five furlongs, and was life and death to hold off confirmed sprinter Sir Greeley last time out....while racing at a mile.

This race was tailor-made for Invasor. His next one will not be. Horses with his style often run below expectations at Nad al Sheba's speed friendly track. The track suits main rival Discreet Cat much better, and also Premium Tap. Unless someone odd-ball speed horse is entered to force a strong pace, this horse will seriously be up against it in the World Cup.

I guess I'm already making excuses why he won't run well in the Dubai World Cup. All the people who think I have some kind of bias against this horse (I bet him in the Pimlico Special off the Dubai race for crying out loud!) can feel free to remind me how up against it I thought he was, if he does win the World Cup.

[blackthroatedwind]

I pretty much agree with you about the trip and what I was sort of trying to say was that the trouble he had was almost completely mitigated by his unbelievably good trip in every other facet of the race. If you take the ENTIRE trip into context he did not have a particularly bad trip.

Like I said before, people frequently mistake one incident of trouble, without taking everything that happened in the race into account, and declare one trip considerably worse than others. This is a mistake and the main way that most people misevaluate trips. In this case it was the HOY that had this very noticable trouble and that has GREATLY superceded everything else that happened in the race. It shouldn't.....and it doesn't.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The way a few people have gone overboard on Invasor's performance yesteday, reminds me when people were calling Bailey's ride on You in the Test Stakes "one of the greatest rides of all-time"

Maybe his ride on her from the 3/8ths pole home was one of the all-time greats, but they seem to forget it wasn't such a good ride for the first half mile.