Invasor 1 to 9

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So it was a great sight to watch, and he overcame major league trouble, but not a great performance. OK.

No one was expecting a race for the ages here. Invasor just showed yet another dimension to his will to win.

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

Please, if the horse was Discreet Cat he would have folded up once the going got tough like that Ward horse in the Hal's Hope and we would have had to hear about how the terrible trip got him beat. Instead he showed heart, fought through the tough trip, and actually won so everyone is going to focus on the slow time and the lack of competition and just ignore the trouble he ran into during the race. He'll get the worst Beyer of his career (about a 107) which shouldn't be surprising considering the trouble he ran into. I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

In that case...you really don't understand it at all....and have a lot to learn.

[The Bid]

BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Bid

BTW,

In your opinion how many does Invasor win by with no trouble. How many Lengths do you think that mild check and heel clip cost him.

The trouble cost him somewhere in the area of a length, maybe less and maybe a little more, but I think he more than made up for that with the rest of his trip.

To be perfectly honest I think if you switched his trip with Hesanoldsalt's the result would have been closer than it was.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, I'm an Invasor fan, and have been one since what I thought was a very underrated win in the Pimlico Special. People tended to discount that victory because it came over Wanderin Boy but to me he acted as his own rabbit that day, keeping a loose speed honest against his own best talents, and then taking a breather late on the turn before rerallying to run that one down. You cannot do that unless you possess unusual talent. I have liked him in every one of his starts and am on record as saying that he deserved as much respect as Bernardini going into the Classic.

[blackthroatedwind]

Oh yeah, and one other thing, DrugS does all that while overcoming the handicap of being hideously ugly.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, I'm an Invasor fan, and have been one since what I thought was a very underrated win in the Pimlico Special.... I have liked him in every one of his starts and am on record as saying that he deserved as much respect as Bernardini going into the Classic.

amen

[b]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

In the BC Classic....he got his trip and setup...but he beat a very tough field.

As far as the Classic goes, he showed an entirely new dimension in his American races -- coming from as far off the pace as he did. It was as much a factor of the other speed signed on as anything, but let's not pretend that he just waltzed along near the pace like he had prior. This coming from well off the pace thing is something you only see in his last two races. So I respectfully contend that he didn't get "his trip" in the Classic. A good trip for certain, but not the one we were accustomed to.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The trouble cost him somewhere in the area of a length, maybe less and maybe a little more, but I think he more than made up for that with the rest of his trip.

To be perfectly honest I think if you switched his trip with Hesanoldsalt's the result would have been closer than it was.

Agree. Also see where someone mentions Afleet Alex' Preakness. I don't know about u but I thought that stumble was overrated too. It happened so quickly that Alex never lost momentum. I was grilled for saying that I didn't think that incident cost him any more than a length or so that day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Here are Beyers from Saturday at GP and SA.

Spin Master, 99
Keyed Entry, 105
Adore the Gold, 102
Sweet Return, 104
Giant Wrecker, 103
Naissance Royale, 98
Invasor, 109
Arsen Squad, 104
Ravel, 102
Curlin, 101
Nobiz Like Shobiz, 98

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Nice work, DrugS! None off by more than 1 except for Curlin's which was off by 2.

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

[Linny]

Invasor (like most of the others listed) was not all out to win. He was hand ridden.

At this time last year, I had 'Salt on my "Derby Dozen" and at least feel somewhat vindicated by his recent development. When doing my list I try to focus only on what I see, not on any opinions/comments from trainers. I try not to focus only on those trained by people I know. I spoke to Nick last summer about 'Salt and he told me that had I asked him, I would not have had the colt so high. He (horse) was very nervous and edgy, talented by immature. He was settling in well by the time he got to the Spa.

The horse that surprised me (pleasantly) was Chatain. At the top of the lane I thought he might win it.

[SniperSB23]

Blackthroatedwind, I'm curious as to how you assessed the track yesterday in regards to the bias. I can certainly buy that the rail was incredibly kind to horses going into the stretch but I have a tough time believing that the rail was golden in the stretch when the horse that opened the most ground in the stretch was Curlin who was nowhere near the rail. Did we see an otherworldly performance by Curlin or was the bias not as pronounced as people are making it out to be?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Blackthroatedwind, I'm curious as to how you assessed the track yesterday in regards to the bias. I can certainly buy that the rail was incredibly kind to horses going into the stretch but I have a tough time believing that the rail was golden in the stretch when the horse that opened the most ground in the stretch was Curlin who was nowhere near the rail. Did we see an otherworldly performance by Curlin or was the bias not as pronounced as people are making it out to be?

I don't think it was a gold rail, or even really close, but I suppose it was probably the best path and that is reasonably validated by some earlier results. However, I don't think the rail skewed the results particularly. I will say that making up considerable ground wasn't easy, however in a race like the feature, with a $10K claimer setting the pace, it is impossible for the speeds to hold.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

Invasor (like most of the others listed) was not all out to win. He was hand ridden.

He was hit at least 4 times between the 1/4 pole and 1/16 th pole. He was hand ridden the last 40 yards.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

as far as the time goes for the donn-invasor had to slow his momentum thru much of the turn and then had the clip, that slowed him a bit too.
of course we'll never know how it would have gone, if he'd have gotten a clean trip, but i know there wasn't just the bobble to overcome time-wise.

Thats right, everyone seems to only be focused on the check-up , saying that it may have cost only one length.

The way I look at it, is from the perspective of what was the effect of the total incident? I counted 11 seconds between the time that Jara first slows him because of not having room until the point when the rail opened and he started with the whip. During this time several things happened including just waiting, trying to go out, then checking-up and redirecting inside. This eleven seconds is why it was Invasors worst speed rating.

As someone else mentioned, all Jara was supposed to do was to keep him with a clear path to the wire, even if that meant floating him out wide. He is not a horse that requires some tricky rail move to win. His job was to keep him out of trouble only and somehow he managed to run right into trouble. Maybe he just got unlucky and he didn't have other good options, but I do question the move up on the rail.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Thats right, everyone seems to only be focused on the check-up , saying that it may have cost only one length.

The way I look at it, is from the perspective of what was the effect of the total incident? I counted 11 seconds between the time that Jara first slows him because of not having room until the point when the rail opened and he started with the whip. During this time several things happened including just waiting, trying to go out, then checking-up and redirecting inside. This eleven seconds is why it was Invasors worst speed rating.

As someone else mentioned, all Jara was supposed to do was to keep him with a clear path to the wire, even if that meant floating him out wide. He is not a horse that requires some tricky rail move to win. His job was to keep him out of trouble only and somehow he managed to run right into trouble. Maybe he just got unlucky and he didn't have other good options, but I do question the move up on the rail.

i watched the replay 4 more times and i count maybe 3 seconds, he was riding right up until maybe a second before he tried to steer him to the inside

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

i watched the replay 4 more times and i count maybe 3 seconds, he was riding right up until maybe a second before he tried to steer him to the inside

cannon he was in a drive and if he would have been able to find room to the outside he could have continued the drive and moved on by quite easily, however he ran out of room and Jara had to stop the drive and just coast, waiting for room. that is where i came up with eleven seconds.
yes he was still riding, but he was not running his race at his speed during this time. maybe I'm the only person that looks at it this way. its the length of time that the horse was prohibited from running like he can.