Well, I am not inclined to like Rock Lobster, but the second horse in his last race did come back with a big win. And, honestly, there aren't any proven killers in this field. It's not like Stream Cat and Go Between are monsters, Showing Up is both distance challenged and a major if on the turf, Outperformance had a very good trip in a race that collapsed last out, Roman Dynesty is a guess ( albeit an educated one ), Lewis Michael is another turf unknown ( though I would take him at his odds over Showing Up at his ridiculously deflated odds ). However, all those horses are more likely to win than Rock Lobster, along with Can't Beat It, who may be the best longshot in the race ( though Eddie Castro doesn't help ).
The problem with a horse like Rock Lobster is that not only does he have to improve substantially, but a whole slew of horses also have to fail to show up. The odds of both of those things happening are far greater than his odds will reflect.
Maybe we should key him in the fourth slot in the super.
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06-20-2006, 05:46 PM
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