kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I couldn't disagree more. Making money betting horses depends very strongly on how accurate is your assessment of any horse's chances. If you only bet horses whose odds were higher than their chances of winning you would be a huge winner in this game.

The simple fact is that Showing Up's odds will not reflect his chances of winning. Not even close.

If he was 30-1 I would make a huge win bet on him. His chances of winning are certainly greater than 3.33%. What I don't believe is that they are substantially greater than 10%.

I guess the difference in the way I see it is that I don't look at odds in the same way. I look at the chart and sheets myself and pick who I think is the winner and not who the majority thinks... if he was 91-1 and I thought he would win, I would bet him and the same would go if he was 2-1. I think that if you like a horse to win, you should bet him to win no matter what his odds are. JMO.