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  #1  
Old 01-20-2007, 06:29 PM
stonegossard stonegossard is offline
Sheepshead Bay
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Yeah, he sure is terrible. That's why his win percentage was 29% in 2005 and then 22% last year. He's got one of the highest win percentages of any trainer and he is one of the best trainers in Southern California. His reputation is impeccable.

By the way, if he's so clueless then how is it that he has so consistently moved horses up off the claim over the years? He's been doing that for over 20 years. He even move them up off of guys like Mullins.

His job with Declans Moon after the injury was one of the worst I have ever seen. One of the best in so-cal? Well...not really saying much considering we are talking about southern california (racing there has gone to hell). What good horses has he had recently...please enlighten me.
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  #2  
Old 01-20-2007, 06:41 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stonegossard
His job with Declans Moon after the injury was one of the worst I have ever seen. One of the best in so-cal? Well...not really saying much considering we are talking about southern california (racing there has gone to hell). What good horses has he had recently...please enlighten me.
Last year he had Buzzard's Bay who won the $500,000 Oaklawn Handicap. In 2005, he won the Indiana Derby with Don't Get Mad. DGM also ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby. In 2004, he had the Champion 2 year old(Declan's Moon). In 2004, he ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby with Atswhatimtalkinabout. Eliis ran 4th in the Ky Derby two years in a row. That's not too bad for a guy that only has 40 horses.

Ellis was the one who picked out Action This Day for B Watne Hughes. ATD won the Breeder's Cup Juvenille.
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  #3  
Old 01-20-2007, 06:49 PM
stonegossard stonegossard is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Last year he had Buzzard's Bay who won the $500,000 Oaklawn Handicap. In 2005, he won the Indiana Derby with Don't Get Mad. DGM also ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby. In 2004, he had the Champion 2 year old(Declan's Moon). In 2004, he ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby with Atswhatimtalkinabout. Eliis ran 4th in the Ky Derby two years in a row. That's not too bad for a guy that only has 40 horses.

Ellis was the one who picked out Action This Day for B Watne Hughes. ATD won the Breeder's Cup Juvenille.

Buzzards bay got an EASY trip/lead at OP. A lot of other horses could have won with the same set up. Was not an impressive race. The real Buzzards Bay showed his true colors next race.....where is the horse now?

Don't Get Mad was actually a horse I liked. But please...the Indiana Derby????? Was an ok horse.

Running 4th in the derby is ok..nothing to brag about. Losing to the worst derby winner in the history of derbies (Giacomo) isnt something to brag about.

Yeah...Action This Day was a nice horse...please...the horse was the worst BC winner ever. Horse didnt do **** before and was horrible after.....lightning struck the day he won the BC race....and it was Mandella ( a solid trainer) who trained the horse...not Ellis....

SO far you have given me Buzzards Bay.....Don't Get Mad....And to a lesser extent ATD. Sounds like the old tugboat needs to swing around..pick these 3 horses up...and head off to the Island of Misfit Horses with this group...
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  #4  
Old 01-20-2007, 07:16 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stonegossard
Buzzards bay got an EASY trip/lead at OP. A lot of other horses could have won with the same set up. Was not an impressive race. The real Buzzards Bay showed his true colors next race.....where is the horse now?

Don't Get Mad was actually a horse I liked. But please...the Indiana Derby????? Was an ok horse.

Running 4th in the derby is ok..nothing to brag about. Losing to the worst derby winner in the history of derbies (Giacomo) isnt something to brag about.

Yeah...Action This Day was a nice horse...please...the horse was the worst BC winner ever. Horse didnt do **** before and was horrible after.....lightning struck the day he won the BC race....and it was Mandella ( a solid trainer) who trained the horse...not Ellis....

SO far you have given me Buzzards Bay.....Don't Get Mad....And to a lesser extent ATD. Sounds like the old tugboat needs to swing around..pick these 3 horses up...and head off to the Island of Misfit Horses with this group...
Buzzard's Bay hardly got an easy trip in the Oaklawn Handicap? He went the half in :46 3/5. Do you know how fast that is at Oaklawn? In most of those stakes races at Oaklawn, they go the half in :48 or slower. Oaklawn plays different than most tracks. You can pretty much subtract a second from whatever they run the half-mile in there. When Afleet Alex won the Arkansas derby, they ran the half in :48. In the Rebel this year, they ran the half in :47 4/5. When Rockport Harbor won that stakes race there, he went the half in :48. You rarely see horses run the half in under :47 there. When they do, they aren't around at the finish.

Buzzard's Bay obviously did not fire in the Stephen Foster. Did you notice that he hasn't run since then. That's usually a sign that something was amiss. Buzzard's Bay is on the comeback trail right now. He'll be ready to run in about 6 weeks.

With regard to Action This Day, the only thing that is important is that it was a great buy. They bought him relatively cheap as a yearling. I don't remeber the excat amount but I think it was around $150,000. He won the $1 million BC Juvenille and then they made an additional $1-2 million on his stud deal. I think Ellis can be proud of picking out a horse for $150,000 that returned his owner about $2-3 million. It doesn't really matter whether you or I think ATD was a good horse or not.
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  #5  
Old 01-20-2007, 07:39 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stonegossard
Buzzards bay got an EASY trip/lead at OP. A lot of other horses could have won with the same set up. Was not an impressive race. The real Buzzards Bay showed his true colors next race.....where is the horse now?

Don't Get Mad was actually a horse I liked. But please...the Indiana Derby????? Was an ok horse.

Running 4th in the derby is ok..nothing to brag about. Losing to the worst derby winner in the history of derbies (Giacomo) isnt something to brag about.

Yeah...Action This Day was a nice horse...please...the horse was the worst BC winner ever. Horse didnt do **** before and was horrible after.....lightning struck the day he won the BC race....and it was Mandella ( a solid trainer) who trained the horse...not Ellis....

SO far you have given me Buzzards Bay.....Don't Get Mad....And to a lesser extent ATD. Sounds like the old tugboat needs to swing around..pick these 3 horses up...and head off to the Island of Misfit Horses with this group...
By the way, Buzzard's Bay went the opening quarter in :22 4/5 in the Oaklawn race. He didn't have an easy lead either. He had a horse breathing down his neck the whole time. He had a horse within a length of him the whole time. He goes the quarter in :22 4/5, the half in :46 3/5 and he has a horse within 3/4 of a length of him at the half. He ended up winning the race by 6 lengths. It was one of the best performances of the year. It was an incredibly strong race. Practically every horse in that race came back to win graded stakes races. I think there were 5 or 6 horses in that race that came back and won big races. I think Andromeda's Hero was the only horse in that race that didn't come back to win.
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  #6  
Old 01-20-2007, 07:42 PM
kentuckyrosesinmay's Avatar
kentuckyrosesinmay kentuckyrosesinmay is offline
Churchill Downs
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stonegossard
Buzzards bay got an EASY trip/lead at OP. A lot of other horses could have won with the same set up. Was not an impressive race. The real Buzzards Bay showed his true colors next race.....where is the horse now?

Don't Get Mad was actually a horse I liked. But please...the Indiana Derby????? Was an ok horse.

Running 4th in the derby is ok..nothing to brag about. Losing to the worst derby winner in the history of derbies (Giacomo) isnt something to brag about.

Yeah...Action This Day was a nice horse...please...the horse was the worst BC winner ever. Horse didnt do **** before and was horrible after.....lightning struck the day he won the BC race....and it was Mandella ( a solid trainer) who trained the horse...not Ellis....

SO far you have given me Buzzards Bay.....Don't Get Mad....And to a lesser extent ATD. Sounds like the old tugboat needs to swing around..pick these 3 horses up...and head off to the Island of Misfit Horses with this group...
Dude, you can't be serious. Buzzard Bay's OP romp was one of the most impressive races of the entire year. He ran his guts out that day.
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  #7  
Old 01-20-2007, 07:54 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
Dude, you can't be serious. Buzzard Bay's OP romp was one of the most impressive races of the entire year. He ran his guts out that day.
Some of the stuff you read here is incredible. A horse has a 3/4 of a length lead in :46 3/5, which is a very fast half at Oaklawn. The horse ended up blowing away the field by 6 lengths and the poster says that BB won because he got an easy lead. Unbelievable!

By the way, this whole discussion about Ellis is absurd. How could a bad trainer win graded stakes races at a 40% clip? How could a bad trainer have a win percentage of 29% in 2005? Those numbers are incredible. You have to be a really good trainer to have numbers like that.

Saying that Ellis did a terrible job with DM and ran him way over his head would be similar to saying that Pletcher did a terrible job with Flower Alley and ran him over his head in 2006. Neither trainer did a bad job. Sometimes horses just don't have it any more and sometimes you can't tell from watching them train. You think the horse still has it, but he doesn't.

Last edited by Rupert Pupkin : 01-20-2007 at 08:08 PM.
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  #8  
Old 01-20-2007, 08:14 PM
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The Bid The Bid is offline
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I think that sums it up pretty well. Declans Moon just isnt the same horse since the injuries.

Rupe, He backs up so quickly it almost looks like he bleeds, Im surprised to hear he scoped clean.
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  #9  
Old 01-21-2007, 09:07 AM
Five Star Derek Five Star Derek is offline
Sunshine Park
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Some of the stuff you read here is incredible. A horse has a 3/4 of a length lead in :46 3/5, which is a very fast half at Oaklawn. The horse ended up blowing away the field by 6 lengths and the poster says that BB won because he got an easy lead. Unbelievable!

By the way, this whole discussion about Ellis is absurd. How could a bad trainer win graded stakes races at a 40% clip? How could a bad trainer have a win percentage of 29% in 2005? Those numbers are incredible. You have to be a really good trainer to have numbers like that.

Saying that Ellis did a terrible job with DM and ran him way over his head would be similar to saying that Pletcher did a terrible job with Flower Alley and ran him over his head in 2006. Neither trainer did a bad job. Sometimes horses just don't have it any more and sometimes you can't tell from watching them train. You think the horse still has it, but he doesn't.
Agreed
DM could look great in the morning and in the barn but just might not have the heart to race anymore. There are plenty of horses with great potential who fail to live up to that potential in barns everywhere. Ask any of the top trainers around and they'll all have stories of horses they thought would be great who failed to live up to their expectations. I loved this horse and looked forward to his comeback but I think Ellis is becoming a scapegoat. It might be in the horses head.
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  #10  
Old 01-21-2007, 10:15 AM
Bold Reasoning
 
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I think Declan's Moon has an unresolved problem that prevents him from competing effectively. My amateur opinion says it is psychological and a human needs to get into his head. Didn't Tom Smith do that with a horse named Seabiscuit!
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  #11  
Old 01-20-2007, 09:38 PM
stonegossard stonegossard is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
Dude, you can't be serious. Buzzard Bay's OP romp was one of the most impressive races of the entire year. He ran his guts out that day.


Most impressive races of the year? Now that is funny.....keep the jokes coming.....

Seems like a lot more than his guts came out of him during that race....talk about a one race wonder...
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  #12  
Old 01-20-2007, 09:44 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stonegossard
Most impressive races of the year? Now that is funny.....keep the jokes coming.....

Seems like a lot more than his guts came out of him during that race....talk about a one race wonder...
If you recall, he ran a HELL of a Kentucky Derby all things considered. He was like 18 wide with Guidry and at one point took the lead on the turn, think he held for 5th or something.

I am speaking about Buzzard's Bay, just to clarify
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  #13  
Old 01-20-2007, 09:49 PM
stonegossard stonegossard is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
If you recall, he ran a HELL of a Kentucky Derby all things considered. He was like 18 wide with Guidry and at one point took the lead on the turn, think he held for 5th or something.

I am speaking about Buzzard's Bay, just to clarify

Was Buzzards Bay a terrible horse? Not at all.....I just think he was a one race wonder...and his record pretty much shows that....
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