Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

Correction for today. Remis Moon is race 4.

[theguarantee]

7/23
Best Bet: Race 7 #3 Beira 7/2 - steadily improving into that last effort which I actually think was legitimate. Might look to have come from nowhere but I think could repeat and if so they could be in trouble.
Best Value: Race 9 #8 Guilty 20/1 - Total stab here but it was either this or Catch a Wave on a card I don't love so ill take a swing...I do think King Puck is a very likely winner and also respect Light Fantastic...that said I don't know that either are overwhelmingly scary...Guilty will be a huge price and us clearly bred to love the turf. Working at Finger Lakes so who really knows, and especially without any works that really jump off the page...I don't know that Barrow has ever won a turf race but that should just add to the price as I doubt he's had many bred like this and hasn't tried a ton...what I do know from my time living out near Finger Lakes and paying some mild attention to the track at times is that Barrow can send them out ready to fire first out, particularly young horses in sprints. Again, a total stab but should be a huge number at least.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

7/23
Best Bet: Race 7 #3 Beira 7/2 - steadily improving into that last effort which I actually think was legitimate. Might look to have come from nowhere but I think could repeat and if so they could be in trouble.
Best Value: Race 9 #8 Guilty 20/1 - Total stab here but it was either this or Catch a Wave on a card I don't love so ill take a swing...I do think King Puck is a very likely winner and also respect Light Fantastic...that said I don't know that either are overwhelmingly scary...Guilty will be a huge price and us clearly bred to love the turf. Working at Finger Lakes so who really knows, and especially without any works that really jump off the page...I don't know that Barrow has ever won a turf race but that should just add to the price as I doubt he's had many bred like this and hasn't tried a ton...what I do know from my time living out near Finger Lakes and paying some mild attention to the track at times is that Barrow can send them out ready to fire first out, particularly young horses in sprints. Again, a total stab but should be a huge number at least.

Good luck. I’ve got both of those horses in my very small Pick 5 (keying Talkin in Cursive and Crystal Quest in the first two legs so I’ll probably be out early.) but if not, I’d love to see these horses in the winner’s circle!

Santana has been great in turf sprints so far this meet. I don’t have the numbers in hand to back that up but it feels that way.

[moses]

Blanked for today. Princess Madison almost got up for place. Remis Moon looked ready to make a move and flattened out.


$104.00 wagered
$200.80 returned

[moses]

Prat in turf routes.

Prat is usually so good at timing turf races but it seems like recently he’s been off, leaving his horse with way too much to do once it hits the stretch. Anyone else noticing this? He’ll be on what I assume will be a heavy favorite in Tax Implications but I think he’s vulnerable there (and again, I’ll probably put him in the winners circle with this post.)

[theguarantee]

Prat has 1 more win than Rosario with 18 more mounts and 2 more than Carmouche with 14 more mounts...I've been displeased with a couple of his rides on horses I needed...I do think its probably for the most part an anomaly and he will heat up but he definitely seems off a bit

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ll be busy this week so going to post my thoughts for Wednesday and Thursday now.

Wednesday.

Race 6. #7 Remi’s Moon, 5/1.
Race 8. #3 Princess Madison, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 9, #4 The Commish, 6/1)

Thursday.

Race 6. #3 Collect the Data, 6/1.
Race 9. #6 Crudo, 6/1.
(Alternate if picks are scratched - Race 10, #Kid Kreesa, 8/1)

I’m going to change my picks for today. Stick with Crudo in the Curlin, who I think is going to wire the field. For my other pick, I’m going to go a little smaller and go with #7 Proctor Street in Race 8 at a short 2/1. A few things here. Proctor Street draws Irad who presumably gave up his ride on Mo Fox Givin. In her first off the layoff, Proctor Street ran great and will beat this field with a slight improvement. With the upgrade from Curtis to Irad, there’s not reason to think she doesn’t move forward here. #5 Tax Implications will be the favorite here but note Prat has been a little off and there are a few things I don’t like about her. Other than her Eatontown last June, none of her figures stand out. I guess you could say the Matriarch but I’m generally skeptical of big figures in turf races where the horse was simply picking up pieces late in the race without really vying for the win.

[theguarantee]

7/24
How quickly Saratoga can cool you off...
Best Bet: Race 10 #6 Doomed 5/1 - Really like this one today..improved vastly for Cox last out and I absolutely love the stretch to 9f today. Doesn't have the quickest turn of foot but has that slow into gear powerful kick, was really striding out the final furlong last out. I really think he will win in here today and just hope the ML price holds or comes close to...you would think it will..but it is Prat and Cox. Ill be trying to get live with no backups in all my late horizontals.

Best Value: Race 5 #7 Russi 6/1 - I don't recall the last time Bond won a race but it feels like forever...ill try to wake up the barn with a horse I've always had a thing for today. Russi loves Saratoga and the 5.5...maybe will need one off the bench but the price should be Ok even with Yarrow out. Set and Vacation Dance can win but I'm not exactly terrified of either.

[moses]

Oof. Can I switch back? Collect the Data wires them at 8/1!

[moses]

Proctor Street was much the best. Now, can we get Crudo home so I can capitalize on this double? I’ll also settle for Hypnus who I think has been sneaky good recently.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Proctor Street was much the best. Now, can we get Crudo home so I can capitalize on this double? I’ll also settle for Hypnus who I think has been sneaky good recently.

The two worst performances of the race. $8.60 back from Proctor Street.

$112.00 wagered
$209.40 returned

Haven’t looked at tomorrow yet.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

The two worst performances of the race. $8.60 back from Proctor Street.

$112.00 wagered
$209.40 returned

Haven’t looked at tomorrow yet.

I’ve looked briefly and don’t like the card at all. I don’t think I’m going to bet any of these races. If I do, here are two horses I like:

Race 5. #2 Hidden Agenda, 12/1. Flashed a little bit of speed in a MSW race on the turf back in May on a good turf. They’ve tried to run back on turf but have gotten washed off. Elliott aboard. He needs to get out of the gate clean and this one has a shot. Really don’t love any of the likely favorites in this race so why not take a swing?

Race 9 (Amsterdam Stakes). #5 Gate to Wire, 5/1. I’ve liked this horse for a while and note the effort in the Swale makes him a player here if he can repeat. His three races after that were the FOY around two turns, then the Pat Day Mile in the slop and the Woody Stephens on a muddy track. Let’s get him back around one turn on a fast track and see what happens.