5/3-4 (CD): 150th Kentucky Derby/Oaks Weekend

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

Great Friday Steve. Keep it rolling for Saturday.

Thx Pal.. Decent day that suffered from 2-3 poorly timed miscues.. Hope everyone did well.

Let's kill it tomorrow!

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 150th DERBY DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Evan On Earth 3-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Pure Force 5-2 WON ($5.66)
Best Value: #5 Lou's Legacy 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 House United 5-1 5th


2nd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Scylla 6-5 WON ($2.98)
Best Value: #10 Secret Statement 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Coppa Girl 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Joke Sisi 10-1 3rd


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Highly anticipated non-stake with stunning debut winner Mindframe returning against a hatfull of quality sophomores..

Most Likely: #11 Mindframe 2-1 WON ($2.92)
Best Value: #2 Cornishman 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Cartucho 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Invigorated 9-2 8th


4th: Knicks Go-R, 4+, 1m (All Dirt STK P5, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Best Actor 5-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Five Star General 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Kapuna 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Oscar Eclipse 8-1 6th


5th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Motorious 7-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Mischief Magic 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #14 Cogburn 8-1 WON ($18.78)
Exotics Use: #10 Big Invasion 5-1 10th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 3-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-10 (A), 7-11 (B), 1-2 (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x4x1x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAACA): 3x4x1x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-2 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

2: 3-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-7-10 (A), 1-2-11 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4 (6-11-1-14) Paid $84.80


6th: Derby City Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Alva Starr 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Vahva 3-1 WON ($5.44)
Best Value: #8 Sterling Silver 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Olivia Darling 10-1 9th


All Dirt STK P5 Grid:

4: 6-10 (A), 1-2-7-11 (B), - (C) ~ Knicks Go
6: 7-10 (A), - (B), 8 (C) ~ Derby City
8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Pat Day
10: 10 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C) ~ Churchill Downs
12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), 2-4-18 (C) ~ Derby

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x1x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups (ACAAA + AAACA + AAAAC): 2x1x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (8 in 6th); 2x2x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 (4-6 in 10th); 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-4-18 in 12th)


7th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (.20 'Must Pay' Derby City P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Race goes through the Chad Browns..

Most Likely: #11 Coppice 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Delahaye 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Mission of Joy 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Evvie Jets 6-1 8th


P4 Grid:

4: 6-7-10 (A), 1-2-11 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 10-14 (B), - (C)
6: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 11 (A), - (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x3x1 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9 (6 in 7th)


.20 Must Pay P6:

7: 6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x3x4x5 = 360 x .20 = $72


8th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (P5, $3 3yo P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Who Dey 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Vlahos 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Nash 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Carbone 10-1 6th


$3 3yo P3 Grid:

8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Pat Day Mile
9: 5 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C) ~ American Turf
12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4 = 36 x $3 = $108
All A's: 3x1x4 = 12 x $3 = $36


9th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Legend of Time 7-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Lord Bullingdon 15-1 13th
Next Best: #3 Lagynos 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Formidable Man 15-1 2nd


10th: Churchill Downs (G1), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

In some ways, the day's most difficult race given its' placement in the big Pick-X sequences. Gun Pilot broke maiden this strip and trip and appears poised for breakthrough with stalk and go voyage with under-appreciated Torres..

Best Value: #10 GUN PILOT 10-1 WON ($12.68)
Next Best: #4 Mr. Wireless 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Zozos 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Three Technique 10-1 9th


11th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tricky draw for Appleby invader opens door for Shug & Chad..

Best Value: #1 Integration 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 I'm Very Busy 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Naval Power 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Program Trading 9-2 WON ($10.18)


12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

We've been over the general framework of this group for weeks with mercurial Fierceness (3-1 overnight) and dogged Sierra Leone (9-2) bracketing another solid 18 hopefuls. After the favorite who thoroughly deserves the respect he's getting, Honor Marie (12-1) & Domestic Product (31-1) are well-priced mid-pack types that have merit as alternatives to one run closing Sierra and Chasing Freedom (8-1). Just a Touch (11-1) and Stronghold (32-1) mirror my top pair in pricing and will enjoy up close, first run trips..

Most Likely: #7 Honor Marie 20-1 8th
Best Value: #15 Domestic Product 30-1 13th
Next Best: #8 Just a Touch 10-1 20th
Exotics Use: #17 Fierceness 5-2 15th
Super/Hi-5: #18 Stronghold 20-1 7th


Oaks-Derby DBL Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4 = 12 x $5 = $60
Backup (C-A): 2x4 = 8 x $2 = $16


Oaks-Turf-Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 3x4x4 = $48
Backup (CAA): 2x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


$1 2-Day All G1 P6 Grid:

FRI 5: 4-6 (A), - (B), 5 (C) ~ La Troienne
FRI 11: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) ~ Oaks
SAT 6: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby City
SAT 10: 10 (A), - (B), 2 (C) ~ Churchill Downs
SAT 11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic
SAT 12: 7-8-15-17 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Derby

All A's: 2x3x2x1x4x4 = $192
Backups: $96 (5) + $128 (3-8) + $192 (2)


P5 Grid:

8: 7-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 8 (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x4x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x1x2x2x5 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (ACAAA): 3x1x2x2x5 = 40 x .50 = $20 (8 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

9: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-5-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x3x4x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)


13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #14 Yellow Card 15-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Jefferson Street 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Devilsgotacause 15-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Discreet Mischief 5-2 2nd


14th: MSW, 3+, 1m (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 D'oro Unbridled 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dive Bomber 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Gun Party 7-2 WON ($7.36)
Super Add: #6 Banned for Life 5-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-6 (A), - (B), 5-11 (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 7-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 8 (A), 1 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x5x2x1 = 60 x .50 = $30
Backups (ACAAA + AAAAC): 3x2x5x2x1 = 60 x .50 = $30 (5-11 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

11: 1-6 (A), 5-11 (B), - (C)
12: 7-8-15-17-18 (A), 2-10-11 (B), 3-4-6-12-14-19 (C)
13: 7-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x8x2x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x5x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20
Backup (ACAA): 2x3x2x6 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-4-6-12-14-19)


Good luck!
Steve

[ninetoone]

When Steve goes ALL CAPS, look out!

GUN PILOT 10-1

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

When Steve goes ALL CAPS, look out!

GUN PILOT 10-1

Exactly...

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Pal.. Decent day that suffered from 2-3 poorly timed miscues.. Hope everyone did well.

Let's kill it tomorrow!

A lot of us made the same miscues. it when our handicapping matches.