Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Fauci ran well, finishing 2nd but couldn’t run the winner down. Main Event is out of excuses. He’s just not as good as I thought.

$248.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 9 - #6 Clairiere 5/2. With the addition of some forwardly placed horses, I don’t think Nest will get as easy of a trip this time out. I love Clairiere here and don’t mind taking a short price on her.

Second bet: Race 8 - #7 Modern Love 12/1. I had originally handicapped this card with the assumption that all turf races would be off. This one stays on and I want to take a shot on Modern Love. They’ve tried to get her on turf a few times to no avail. Has a turf pedigree. Not really impressed with any of the likely favorites in here and she should be a good price.

And of course Race 8 is OFF now. I toyed with the thought of going with Daily Grind in race 6…which was my original pick. But I think Dahoss is right that the race is loaded so I’m going to take a shot instead with #7 Going the Distance in race 10. Good luck all.

Posting Saturday picks as well.

Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1.
Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.

[theguarantee]

With race 8 off ill pivot to race 6 #1 Air of Defiance. Loaded field and don't be much of a price but I think is getting a little ignored in the early getting sue to the rail draw which doesn't concern me as much as others in dirt sprints at the Spa.

[moses]

Maybe I should have gone Secret Oath over Clairiere…but definitely did not expect Idiomatic to get loose on the lead and never even get contested.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Maybe I should have gone Secret Oath over Clairiere…but definitely did not expect Idiomatic to get loose on the lead and never even get contested.

I liked Idiomatic too but downgraded due to Geroux/Cox 3/39 .20 ROI on Dirt last 365. Pratt has been his go to guy... Oh well

[theguarantee]

Irad is such a thorn in my side

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

I liked Idiomatic too but downgraded due to Geroux/Cox 3/39 .20 ROI on Dirt last 365. Pratt has been his go to guy... Oh well

I just really screwed up the pace for that race. Ah well. It happens.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by jms62

I liked Idiomatic too but downgraded due to Geroux/Cox 3/39 .20 ROI on Dirt last 365. Pratt has been his go to guy... Oh well

Forgot to mention this was Graded Stakes stats

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $256.00
Returned: $268.70

Anthracite was dreadful while Jumbly ran a very mediocre third. Yesterday Air of Defiance had a brutal trip breaking awfully from the rail (insert foot in mouth) closing well to get up for second paying a generous 5.10 to place. Would love to have seen if Secret Oath could've gotten the job done if Irad didnt decide the gameplan was to let Idiomatic get loose on the lead. Maybe Idiomatic was just best but that seemed insane to me and Secret Oath got back to a much better racing paying 7.20 to place. Still finalizing some stuff will be back with todays picks later.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

And of course Race 8 is OFF now. I toyed with the thought of going with Daily Grind in race 6…which was my original pick. But I think Dahoss is right that the race is loaded so I’m going to take a shot instead with #7 Going the Distance in race 10. Good luck all.

Posting Saturday picks as well.

Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1.
Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.

Heading into Saturday. My picks were awful yesterday.

$256.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Heading into Saturday. My picks were awful yesterday.

$256.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned

Well done. That was the most evenly matched Travers from Top to bottom that I can remember.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Well done. That was the most evenly matched Travers from Top to bottom that I can remember.

Thanks.

Sunday picks.

Race 2 - #3 Cairo Sugar 4/1
Race 8 - #5 Noble Huntsman 12/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 5 - #5 Runaway Rumor 3/1 - I don't know what to say other than I can't quit her. Do think she's a little dirtied up and hoping Ricardo defaults back to her winning style sitting back and making one run.

Best Value: Race 8: #2 Be of Courage 8/1 - Has spent the majority of his career sprinting but the dam was a confirmed router. Navy has ridden him a few times now including the impressive maiden breaker going back. Low profile connections should ensure a nice price and I'm looking for a bit of an outsider in this field today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks.

Sunday picks.

Race 2 - #3 Cairo Sugar 4/1
Race 8 - #5 Noble Huntsman 12/1

Cairo sugar scratched. Give me race 7 - #6 Stellamaris 5/2

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

[theguarantee]

Well that was sick - was going to make Sail With the Wind a play off the debut - didn't think there was any dirt breeding so just tossed in my stable mail and didn't even use in my picks. Ugh, onto the final week....

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

Wednesday picks.

First bet: Race 5 #3 Antares 10/1. So, I love this horse in this race. I might be wrong but he was bumped at the start 2 back but still rushed to the front and he just blew those horses off their feet. The runner up is a 4-time 2nd place finisher who still hasn’t broken his maiden but he topped him by 4 lengths and the 3rd place finisher was 14 lengths behind Antares. He has yet to run on dirt but he sports 4 workouts at Saratoga that suggest he won’t have a problem handling the surface at all. Gilmore will be a massive favorite here, and rightfully so. But where exactly is the speed in this race? I think it’s Antares and if he gets loose, he could be very dangerous for a barn that’s been very dangerous in 2023. Breeding suggests he shouldn’t have any issue with 1 mile.

Second bet: Race 8 - #4 Signal From Noise 5/1. I just don’t love the likely favorites in this one and think there is enough pace that you want a horse who can rally from off the pace. I’m not sure about the addition of blinkers here but like that Prat is aboard and think she will appreciate the cutback.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: race 6 # 7 Printrack 8/4
Best Value: Race 7: #14 Katie's Checkride 15/1

[moses]

Thursday picks.

First bet. Race 7 - #5 Get Spooled 10/1. This horse did not have an ideal start but was able to make the lead and never look back. 2nd place finisher came back to win next time out. While Get Spooled got the ideal trip after the bad start, I think he showed talent to overcome that start and looked good in the stretch, repelling the runner up. Lezcano is aboard for Mott and they’ve hit 25%/75% in their last 16 together. I think the 1 horse (also Mott) has some talent but isn’t a router, don’t like betting favorites that add blinkers (the 2), and don’t want to bet Dylan Davis at 7/2 on the 8…so I ended up on this longshot who I think is live.

Second bet. Race 2 - #5 Dorothy’s Dreams 6/1. I loved how this horse fought on in her debut and am hoping for a better start now that she’s got some experience. She took money in her debut, so I take that to mean the connections like her overall talent. I like to see Javy back aboard. Will hopefully be a nice price with the 1 and some of the other connections in the race.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

Antares was game in defeat. Just missing. I had the wrong Chad Brown horse in race 8.

$280.00 wagered
$286.00 returned