Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Boy, my picks were absolutely terrible yesterday. Holiday Jazz finished a distant 3rd and Classic Lynne finished a disappointing 4th. Going with two 2YO races today as I'm not all that crazy about the card. I wanted to talk myself into Timbuktu or Practice Squad to upset Dakota Gold...but I just think that horse is very, very good and don't want to bet against him today.

After Day 5.
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 10 1-2-2

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 V Mart 6/1 ML, Avila/Olivero. I've generally tried to avoid 2YOs but there are a number of things that I like about this horse. First, the works are very good. Second, there is no clear standout in the race among the horses who have started already. Run Poppy, Smart Prize, and Clear the Deck have run well but none so great that the race is a foregone conclusion. This horse comes from the same owner/trainer combo as King Guillermo. King Guillermo was named after owner Victor Martinez's father. This one is named after Victor Martinez himself. Avila could has easily kept this horse at Monmouth for a maiden race on Saturday but ships him up to Saratoga instead. This signals to me -- this horse is live and I'll be very happy if we can get 6/1 on him.

Best value: Race 10 - #8 Determined Jester 15/1 ML, Schoenthal/McCarthy. This one is a bit of a stab...but check the price tag on this filly last September. Her works are all on dirt and not anything special but she should like the grass and note she is a 1/2 to Bodecream (winner of the Texas Turf Mile and in the money in a couple of graded stakes races on the turf) and to the stakes placed Califante (IRE). Her dam, Call Mariah, was unraced but is a 1/2 to Daredevil, Albertus Maximus, and Chasethegold. Chasethegold was 2nd in the G3 Ken Maddy Stakes (turf) at Santa Anita and produced Goldenrod runner up Goldrushgirl and turf winner Cayala (who later produced stakes winning Provocateur, last seen finishing 3rd behind Jack Christopher in the Woody Stephens.) Actually, you may not have seen that finish as Provocateur was 12 lengths back...but the point being - this horse is 15/1 and has a pretty nice pedigree. There are a couple other horses in this race with interesting pedigree connections (American Rockette, Strut) and some horses with more successful connections (Sugar Mamas Cakery, Factor That, Margaret Burbidge, Georgees Spirit), but I've talked myself into taking a shot on Determined Jester.

Race 10 is now off the turf so I'll switch that pick to Race 10 - #11 Binsky 8/1 ML. Irad is aboard so I don't know if that price will hold but Curlin horses generally seem to do OK on a wet track and I actually like the outside post for 2YOs as it gives them space out of the gate, even at the short distance.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Race 10 is now off the turf so I'll switch that pick to Race 10 - #11 Binsky 8/1 ML. Irad is aboard so I don't know if that price will hold but Curlin horses generally seem to do OK on a wet track and I actually like the outside post for 2YOs as it gives them space out of the gate, even at the short distance.

Of course, my original pick finishes ahead of my changed pick. But neither top 2.

I have a feeling I’m going to change that Harkie pick, too. Watched some of those races and I’m not sure that horse is interested in running much and not sure how much class relief it’s actually getting.

[moses]

If Alexis Zorba stays at 2/1 in race 1, I am betting a lot of money on him. I don’t think he can lose. Should probably be below even money, imo.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

If Alexis Zorba stays at 2/1 in race 1, I am betting a lot of money on him. I don’t think he can lose. Should probably be below even money, imo.

Luckily he was bet down and saved me money.

Brown/Franco continue hot streak.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Luckily he was bet down and saved me money.

Brown/Franco continue hot streak.

He opened dead and ran like it. Winner was bet dead, and was awesome. He could show up in the Hopeful

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He opened dead and ran like it. Winner was bet dead, and was awesome. He could show up in the Hopeful

Yep. Any time I say a horse “can’t lose,” it’s a certainty that the horse will in fact lose.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet - Race 8: 5 Palace Gossip 4/1 - I toyed around with making a case for Itsakeyper but it's just tough to take a horse in such bad form off a race at Toga last year with an all time trip, still the price is appealing and I think might just appreciate this trip, would use in exotics underneath. The more I looked though I just think of the logicals Palace Gossip is best in here. I get the case for Sassy Melissa and maybe she'll prove best. I don't really like the 1 or the 3 in here at all though and if DA is right on the ML and we get 4/1 I think that is a fair price today.

Best Value - Race 9: Sister Lou Ann 12/1 - I typically never take Saffie horses outside of Florida but I was looking for something a little off the beaten path in here. The case for Dolce Zel is fine but I just don't know that I'm that convinced she's all that imposing. Koala Princess can beat me off the layoff. Eminent Victor is probably full of upside but I don't want at the expected price. I couldn't quite get there on the others and again it's a bit of defaulting to a horse that's just done nothing wrong so far and will be a square price. Obviously has to improve but received that six month break and then ran well in June. Taking a bit of a stab in here.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He opened dead and ran like it. Winner was bet dead, and was awesome. He could show up in the Hopeful

The Hopeful?

Did you put some crack in your joint this morning?

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The Hopeful?

Did you put some crack in your joint this morning?

Wants dirt. Will improve on it. Watch the race ,you race watcher you.