Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Nice call on best bet

Originally Posted by Conrad

There it is...Canisy

Smart ride by Javi to jump that field early, esp after the #4 scratched.
Nice pick.

Originally Posted by jms62

Nice Start

Thanks. Angitude almost held on for 2nd but just wasn’t good enough.

After Day 1
Record: 2 1-0-1
Total wagered: $8.00
Total returned: $14.30

[moses]

Reiterating my picks for today and posting Saturday's picks:

Friday, July 15
Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie.
Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche.

(Commentary above)

Saturday, July 16

Best Bet: Race 9 - #4 Analogy 10/1 ML, Pletcher/Carmouche. I'm not sure exactly what this horse's preferred running style is as he won on the lead two back but looked pretty good coming from off the pace in his last race. The versatility is a plus. Note that the runner up two back broke his maiden next time out (including over yesterday's winner Snow's Island) and followed that up with an allowance win over Easter (who Motion thought highly enough of to run in the Man O War.) I don't see much difference between this horse and a horse like Credit Event - although Credit Event will be a shorter price. ML favorite Fort Ticonderoga may be tough as the runner up from last time out, Growth Capital, seems to be a pretty good horse. But I think is worth taking a shot against.

Best Value: Race 3 - #11 Jocosity 10/1 ML, Mott/I.Ortiz. I know that conventional wisdom is to bet against Mott first time starters but I'm playing this horse off of a gut instinct that Mott has brought a talented group of horses to Saratoga and is looking to make some noise. Chad Brown's Robyn and Eli may be the horse to beat here and far be it for me to question Chad Brown's strategy, but I'm not crazy about her being moved from sprint to route to sprint...now back to a route. Last out, she lost to a 40/1 horse that had only finished in the money one other time in her career. So I'm not really crazy about betting her. Seeing Mott and Irad team up here, I'm banking on this horse having some talent.

[moses]

I want to add - the Saturday card is really nice. There are probably 5 or 6 horses that I have a lot of interest in. Some in the 5/2 to 9/2 range though. Rally Squirrel in Race 5 would be my alternate best bet...but really just thought it was worth taking a shot on a few prices.

[theguarantee]

Friday, 7/15:

Best Value Race 5: 4 Bali's Shade - A bit of a stab here but I wanted to look for an outsider in this field. Al's Prince may well win but to me will be an underlay. Going through the alternates I just kept coming away feeling empty. If you draw a line through the yielding race 2 back Bali's Shade has the exact same form as Juulstone but is triple the price. Is bred to handle the stretchout and could be dangerous on the front end here in my opinion. Hoping for an aggressive ride.

Best Bet Race 9: 1 Set Piece - Not sure if this is going to be similar to yesterday where I don't get the ML price but Aragona tends to be good and while I tried to make a case for a bunch of these I just ultimately kept coming back to Set Piece being too good for these. Hoping Public Sector takes enough money to hold a decent enough price for Set Piece as it seems a lot of people like PS today. I just think Set Piece will motor by them late, I'm mainly using as a single in multis but if it seems like I can get 5/2 or better I probably will be placing a win bet.

Good luck.

[moses]

I haven't gotten a chance to look into these races quite as much as I'd like...but I'm not sure how busy I'm going to be over the next two days so I'm going to post my initial thoughts and may tweak them later on.

After Day 2
Record: 4 1-1-1
Total wagered: $16.00
Total returned: $20.00

Sunday, July 17

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Nobals 9/2 ML, Rivelli/I.Ortiz. I love the early speed in these turf sprints and I think Nobals is the fastest of the fast here. The main contender, Big Invasion, draws the outside post and I'm not sure how much I like him to get an easy trip. We'll see...but I'll be betting on the speed and hoping Irad is able to hold on down the stretch.

Best Value: Race 7 #11 Classic Lynne 6/1 ML, Sharp/Gaffalione. I'm not sure what went into the decision to put her in a stakes race on dirt but she's been off the track since then and now returns for her 3 year old debut on what I think is her preferred surface and distance. If you go two back, she showed some professionalism in her maiden win and defeated Russiarussiarussia that day fairly convincingly. She's a big, strong looking horse with a nice stride that, if she improves at all, is the horse to beat out of this bunch. Her works look good. No reason to think she isn't ready to fire.

[theguarantee]

Set Piece had a brutal trip but probably should've just been a clear second to City Man. Bali's Shade was a bad pick. Right idea, wrong horse.

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1 - Kind of surprised at how many others are picking her in here today and wonder if we'll get the full 6/1 for that reason. That said, I thought Irad really mismanaged her speed last two slowing down the race two back (wouldn't have mattered given the way the Churchill turf was playing of course) and then moving too early/aggressively last out. I think Rougir needs more cut in the ground and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment but I still haven't fully come around on Bleecker Street. I like the switch to Joel Rosario and trust him to get more out of her today.

Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1 - Ran Eli’s Promise into the ground and then returned to run 24 beyer points higher breaking maiden, granted with only a 59. But several runners that were smoked in here have come back for big improvements. Think the second and third place finishers are pretty nice Pletcher/Asmussen runners and this horse really dug in/held sway late. Really just felt like he was hitting top gear and expect a step forward today. In a race it seems many are taking some crazy swings I actually think Forte and Andiamo a Firenze are legit and wouldn't be surprised if either won. I have a feeling Mo Strike is a pretty nice horse though and today would appear to be the day to try to cash on that opinion.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Set Piece had a brutal trip but probably should've just been a clear second to City Man. Bali's Shade was a bad pick. Right idea, wrong horse.

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1 - Kind of surprised at how many others are picking her in here today and wonder if we'll get the full 6/1 for that reason. That said, I thought Irad really mismanaged her speed last two slowing down the race two back (wouldn't have mattered given the way the Churchill turf was playing of course) and then moving too early/aggressively last out. I think Rougir needs more cut in the ground and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment but I still haven't fully come around on Bleecker Street. I like the switch to Joel Rosario and trust him to get more out of her today.

Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1 - Ran Eli’s Promise into the ground and then returned to run 24 beyer points higher breaking maiden, granted with only a 59. But several runners that were smoked in here have come back for big improvements. Think the second and third place finishers are pretty nice Pletcher/Asmussen runners and this horse really dug in/held sway late. Really just felt like he was hitting top gear and expect a step forward today. In a race it seems many are taking some crazy swings I actually think Forte and Andiamo a Firenze are legit and wouldn't be surprised if either won. I have a feeling Mo Strike is a pretty nice horse though and today would appear to be the day to try to cash on that opinion.

Nice call on both.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Set Piece had a brutal trip but probably should've just been a clear second to City Man. Bali's Shade was a bad pick. Right idea, wrong horse.

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1 - Kind of surprised at how many others are picking her in here today and wonder if we'll get the full 6/1 for that reason. That said, I thought Irad really mismanaged her speed last two slowing down the race two back (wouldn't have mattered given the way the Churchill turf was playing of course) and then moving too early/aggressively last out. I think Rougir needs more cut in the ground and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment but I still haven't fully come around on Bleecker Street. I like the switch to Joel Rosario and trust him to get more out of her today.

Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1 - Ran Eli’s Promise into the ground and then returned to run 24 beyer points higher breaking maiden, granted with only a 59. But several runners that were smoked in here have come back for big improvements. Think the second and third place finishers are pretty nice Pletcher/Asmussen runners and this horse really dug in/held sway late. Really just felt like he was hitting top gear and expect a step forward today. In a race it seems many are taking some crazy swings I actually think Forte and Andiamo a Firenze are legit and wouldn't be surprised if either won. I have a feeling Mo Strike is a pretty nice horse though and today would appear to be the day to try to cash on that opinion.

Fantastic! Great job

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Set Piece had a brutal trip but probably should've just been a clear second to City Man. Bali's Shade was a bad pick. Right idea, wrong horse.

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1 - Kind of surprised at how many others are picking her in here today and wonder if we'll get the full 6/1 for that reason. That said, I thought Irad really mismanaged her speed last two slowing down the race two back (wouldn't have mattered given the way the Churchill turf was playing of course) and then moving too early/aggressively last out. I think Rougir needs more cut in the ground and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment but I still haven't fully come around on Bleecker Street. I like the switch to Joel Rosario and trust him to get more out of her today.

Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1 - Ran Eli’s Promise into the ground and then returned to run 24 beyer points higher breaking maiden, granted with only a 59. But several runners that were smoked in here have come back for big improvements. Think the second and third place finishers are pretty nice Pletcher/Asmussen runners and this horse really dug in/held sway late. Really just felt like he was hitting top gear and expect a step forward today. In a race it seems many are taking some crazy swings I actually think Forte and Andiamo a Firenze are legit and wouldn't be surprised if either won. I have a feeling Mo Strike is a pretty nice horse though and today would appear to be the day to try to cash on that opinion.

Hope that you played a ton!!!!!!!! very nice work

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Set Piece had a brutal trip but probably should've just been a clear second to City Man. Bali's Shade was a bad pick. Right idea, wrong horse.

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1 - Kind of surprised at how many others are picking her in here today and wonder if we'll get the full 6/1 for that reason. That said, I thought Irad really mismanaged her speed last two slowing down the race two back (wouldn't have mattered given the way the Churchill turf was playing of course) and then moving too early/aggressively last out. I think Rougir needs more cut in the ground and I guess I'm a glutton for punishment but I still haven't fully come around on Bleecker Street. I like the switch to Joel Rosario and trust him to get more out of her today.

Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1 - Ran Eli’s Promise into the ground and then returned to run 24 beyer points higher breaking maiden, granted with only a 59. But several runners that were smoked in here have come back for big improvements. Think the second and third place finishers are pretty nice Pletcher/Asmussen runners and this horse really dug in/held sway late. Really just felt like he was hitting top gear and expect a step forward today. In a race it seems many are taking some crazy swings I actually think Forte and Andiamo a Firenze are legit and wouldn't be surprised if either won. I have a feeling Mo Strike is a pretty nice horse though and today would appear to be the day to try to cash on that opinion.

Nailed it! I bet along with you on In Italian. Nice calls.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Saturday, 7/16:
Best Bet - Race 8 6 In Italian 6/1
Best Value - Race 10 6 Mo Strike 8/1

Superb job.. You really deserved to get paid!

Not sure how In Italian paid $18. And the 2yo group was really good and very tricky. 85 Beyer for Mo Strike.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I haven't gotten a chance to look into these races quite as much as I'd like...but I'm not sure how busy I'm going to be over the next two days so I'm going to post my initial thoughts and may tweak them later on.

After Day 2
Record: 4 1-1-1
Total wagered: $16.00
Total returned: $20.00

Sunday, July 17

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Nobals 9/2 ML, Rivelli/I.Ortiz. I love the early speed in these turf sprints and I think Nobals is the fastest of the fast here. The main contender, Big Invasion, draws the outside post and I'm not sure how much I like him to get an easy trip. We'll see...but I'll be betting on the speed and hoping Irad is able to hold on down the stretch.

Best Value: Race 7 #11 Classic Lynne 6/1 ML, Sharp/Gaffalione. I'm not sure what went into the decision to put her in a stakes race on dirt but she's been off the track since then and now returns for her 3 year old debut on what I think is her preferred surface and distance. If you go two back, she showed some professionalism in her maiden win and defeated Russiarussiarussia that day fairly convincingly. She's a big, strong looking horse with a nice stride that, if she improves at all, is the horse to beat out of this bunch. Her works look good. No reason to think she isn't ready to fire.

After Day 3. $24.00 wagered, $20.00 returned.

Classic Lynn is scratched. Going to go with Oak Loves a Fight in race 10 instead.

[theguarantee]

Thanks everyone, wish I wasn't so convinced Reinvestment Risk was a single needing no backups and wasn't so against Credit Event or it could've been a monster of a day, needless to say still had an awesome day for the bankroll. Onto today...

Sunday, 7/17
Best Bet - Race 9 - 1 Supremacy 5/1 - Going to try to get Brad Cox home in the penultimate race of the day again here...I know that the last figure jumps off the page and one of my biggest handicapping strategies is usually to play against horses I think have thrown an inflated fig they will be bet on today...however, in this case this horse just ran far too well to ignore in the last. Sound Money can obviously win but I've never been his biggest fan. I tried to make a case for a bunch but I kept coming back to the 1 who popped a 92 going back to last May and as a 4yo I have a feeling is just improving and going really well for Brad Cox right now. Should be a decent enough price to find out.

Best Value - Race 4 - 2 Locally Owned 10/1 - A bit of a stab here as he's been really bad in his last two but wondering if cutting back to 1 1/8th will help right the ship. Dylan has ridden a few of these in here and while I don't want to play a jockey guessing game (and I'm guessing it wasn't fully his choice) but at least he is familiar with a few of these. The real reason I like him however is I just wonder how much some of the others in here want to go this far. To me, he's the one horse that I feel will be finishing with energy and at the expected price I think is worth a shot that maybe he can pick them all up late.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Thanks everyone, wish I wasn't so convinced Reinvestment Risk was a single needing no backups and wasn't so against Credit Event or it could've been a monster of a day, needless to say still had an awesome day for the bankroll. Onto today...

Sunday, 7/17
Best Bet - Race 9 - 1 Supremacy 5/1 - Going to try to get Brad Cox home in the penultimate race of the day again here...I know that the last figure jumps off the page and one of my biggest handicapping strategies is usually to play against horses I think have thrown an inflated fig they will be bet on today...however, in this case this horse just ran far too well to ignore in the last. Sound Money can obviously win but I've never been his biggest fan. I tried to make a case for a bunch but I kept coming back to the 1 who popped a 92 going back to last May and as a 4yo I have a feeling is just improving and going really well for Brad Cox right now. Should be a decent enough price to find out.

Best Value - Race 4 - 2 Locally Owned 10/1 - A bit of a stab here as he's been really bad in his last two but wondering if cutting back to 1 1/8th will help right the ship. Dylan has ridden a few of these in here and while I don't want to play a jockey guessing game (and I'm guessing it wasn't fully his choice) but at least he is familiar with a few of these. The real reason I like him however is I just wonder how much some of the others in here want to go this far. To me, he's the one horse that I feel will be finishing with energy and at the expected price I think is worth a shot that maybe he can pick them all up late.

Good luck.

Good luck. I like your best best. Not sure if that’s a good thing or bad thing right now.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

After Day 3. $24.00 wagered, $20.00 returned.

Classic Lynn is scratched. Going to go with Oak Loves a Fight in race 10 instead.

Nobals was just a bad pick. Did not get out to the lead as I expected, hit some traffic and maybe a bump, and then was done.

Oak Loves a Fight finished strong to get place but the favorite there was much the best. She paid $8.10 to place to give me a positive return for the day.

After Day 4.
Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $28.10
Record: 8 1-2-1

Some thoughts about yesterday. Neither of my picks hit the board. But I think I was right to bet against the favorite in those races. I just didn’t find the right horses to plug in. The 50 cent trifecta in those races yesterday paid $1267 and $262. With luck, I will hit a few of those races where there is a weak favorite.

[moses]

I struggled a bit with this card. One horse that I really like is Home For Christmas, who runs in race 4...but the inner turf has not been kind to early speed and I'm not sure if she can rate at all. At a 4/1 ML, I probably would have made her my best bet. But instead, I'm looking elsewhere for now.

Wednesday, July 20

Best bet: Race 8 - Mischievous Diane 4/1, Handal/Davis. Ray Handal always seems to bring a few really good horses up to Saratoga. In this case, Mischievous Diane has just looked better with each start. Her only losses came last year as a two year old, one of those in her debut and one to MGSW Kathleen O. She beat older horses last time out, seems to be improving, and is ready for a bigger challenge here.

Best value: Race 2 - Holiday Jazz 5/1, Duggan/Carmouche. Carmouche hasn't won for me yet...but I have a feeling the price on this horse could float up above the 5/1 morning line as I expect a lot of money to come in on Mariah's Fortune (Cox/Saez) and Evoking (Thomas/Irad). I like the addition of blinkers here and with an aggressive ride from Carmouche, I see this horse at least capable of wiring the field here. I'm not particularly crazy about the two favorites. Mariah's Fortune looks like the horse to beat but her best races came around two turns and I'm not sure if she'll like the cutback or not. Evoking enters the race off a 14-month layoff and her big win came in the slop, not to mention her works don't look especially great. Both are worth taking a shot against, imo. Holiday Jazz has shown a little promise in her maiden breaker and finished one length back of Chloe Rose two back (who won a starter allowance race here last week.)

A few other horses that I like at a price are: Rent Control (8/1) in race 3, Callie's Passion (6/1) in race 5, and I'm still interested in Classic Lynne (4/1) who runs in race 9 but curious about why she was scratched by the stewards over the weekend.

Good luck all.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I struggled a bit with this card. One horse that I really like is Home For Christmas, who runs in race 4...but the inner turf has not been kind to early speed and I'm not sure if she can rate at all. At a 4/1 ML, I probably would have made her my best bet. But instead, I'm looking elsewhere for now.

Wednesday, July 20

Best bet: Race 8 - Mischievous Diane 4/1, Handal/Davis. Ray Handal always seems to bring a few really good horses up to Saratoga. In this case, Mischievous Diane has just looked better with each start. Her only losses came last year as a two year old, one of those in her debut and one to MGSW Kathleen O. She beat older horses last time out, seems to be improving, and is ready for a bigger challenge here.

Best value: Race 2 - Holiday Jazz 5/1, Duggan/Carmouche. Carmouche hasn't won for me yet...but I have a feeling the price on this horse could float up above the 5/1 morning line as I expect a lot of money to come in on Mariah's Fortune (Cox/Saez) and Evoking (Thomas/Irad). I like the addition of blinkers here and with an aggressive ride from Carmouche, I see this horse at least capable of wiring the field here. I'm not particularly crazy about the two favorites. Mariah's Fortune looks like the horse to beat but her best races came around two turns and I'm not sure if she'll like the cutback or not. Evoking enters the race off a 14-month layoff and her big win came in the slop, not to mention her works don't look especially great. Both are worth taking a shot against, imo. Holiday Jazz has shown a little promise in her maiden breaker and finished one length back of Chloe Rose two back (who won a starter allowance race here last week.)

A few other horses that I like at a price are: Rent Control (8/1) in race 3, Callie's Passion (6/1) in race 5, and I'm still interested in Classic Lynne (4/1) who runs in race 9 but curious about why she was scratched by the stewards over the weekend.

Good luck all.

Given it some thought and I’m going to swap my best bet from Mischievous Diane to #4 Classic Lynne in Race 9. One thing I try to do when picking these horses is identify favorites that I don’t like and then bet against them. In Race 8, although I like Mischievous Diane, I have nothing against the favorite Smash Ticket. MD is also a 3YO going against older here. I’ll be betting her, but I think Classic Lynne is a better bet. I don’t particularly like the two favorites in race 9 and Classic Lynne should win this if she takes any step forward from last year. Her works have been good and I’m not worried about Joe Sharp coming off the layoff. Basically all the reasons I liked her last week.