3/11-13 (CD): Future Wager ~ Derby Pool #4/Lone Oaks Pool

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Its no surprise that Causeway is 10-1 because it always happens when a horse wins near the close of these pools especially since it was the only prep this weekend. I do think the horse has some upside. He didn't break a sweat in that race and seemed to have lots left. The horse breaks very well which is always a plus at the derby. Conditions were not good especially with the wind. Obviously the figures will need to get better but the horse did what he needed in those two Tampa races. I think this horse can progress from here and wouldnt surprise me to be a contender.

I agree with you there but would never bet that horse at 10/1. Assuming he makes it to the Derby, what are the chances he’ll be near or above 10/1 on Derby day? I’d say pretty good.

That said, I broke from tradition and decided to put some money on the field this weekend. It was 5/1 when I bet and ended at 4/1. But I feel unimpressed with a lot of these horses, already have Simplification at 43/1, and think there is a chance the Lukas filly or one of the Baffert horses gets in (under another trainer) so I kind of liked that bet. I’ll probably regret it but it wasn’t a huge bet.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

I agree with you there but would never bet that horse at 10/1. Assuming he makes it to the Derby, what are the chances he’ll be near or above 10/1 on Derby day? I’d say pretty good.

That said, I broke from tradition and decided to put some money on the field this weekend. It was 5/1 when I bet and ended at 4/1. But I feel unimpressed with a lot of these horses, already have Simplification at 43/1, and think there is a chance the Lukas filly or one of the Baffert horses gets in (under another trainer) so I kind of liked that bet. I’ll probably regret it but it wasn’t a huge bet.

I bet $25 on Venti Valentine in the Oaks at 15-1. I'm skeptical that Echo Zulu even makes the race. If Venti Valentine wins the Gazelle, she's probably half (or less) than the 15-1 I bet her at.

I also bet $15 on In Due Time in the Derby. He would need to really improve, but I don't think much separates him and the best in Florida, so why not?

I've lost $40 in much worse ways if neither make the gate

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bet $25 on Venti Valentine in the Oaks at 15-1. I'm skeptical that Echo Zulu even makes the race. If Venti Valentine wins the Gazelle, she's probably half (or less) than the 15-1 I bet her at.

I also bet $15 on In Due Time in the Derby. He would need to really improve, but I don't think much separates him and the best in Florida, so why not?

I've lost $40 in much worse ways if neither make the gate

Isn't Venti Valentine more likely to win the Oaks than Classic Causeway is to win the Derby?

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bet $25 on Venti Valentine in the Oaks at 15-1. I'm skeptical that Echo Zulu even makes the race. If Venti Valentine wins the Gazelle, she's probably half (or less) than the 15-1 I bet her at.

I also bet $15 on In Due Time in the Derby. He would need to really improve, but I don't think much separates him and the best in Florida, so why not?

I've lost $40 in much worse ways if neither make the gate

I didn’t look much at the Oaks horses. I’ve just been checked out.

I don’t dislike In Due Time. My original plan was to get on Charge It in this pool but looks like everyone had that plan and 17/1 just isn’t appealing to me for that horse.