3/26-28 (CD): Derby Future Wager ~ Pool 5

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

How much is your ticket worth if you bet a horse in the future pool at 30-1, he goes off 5-1 in the Derby and runs 16th?

Right means making money. That’s what this is all about.

Okay, so by your definition, a bet is “right” only if it makes money. The reality is that winning or losing the bet has very little to do with whether you had an edge at the time you made the bet. You can lose 28 out of 30 times with your 30-1 shots and have a humongous edge.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If you feel like you’ve found an edge and can spot underlays in future pools....more power to you. But at the end of the day, if you’re not actually making money who gives a sh.it?

Finally, there’s something I can agree with you on, as long as you’re using “end of the day” to mean ‘in the long run’.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Plus...saying you have an edge and actually having one are two different things.

Two things in a row that make sense.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

For all of your posts on the matter I can’t recall many (if any) actual opinions on horses. So how would anyone know if you have an edge? Where is the proof?

Your definition of ‘proof’, I presume, is a longterm winning record? I could show you a log of my bets in the Derby Future Wager ever since I started betting it in 2008. Those bets have shown a solid profit. Showing those bets here is a lose/lose proposition for me. Either (1) I’d fail to convince you, or (2) I WOULD convince you (and possibly others here), and my edge next year would be smaller, thanks to the parimutual aspect.

I’ve filed a Sch C as a professional gambler for at least the past 27 years, showing a profit every year. Am I going to show those to you? No. Would it convince you if I did? Probably not. You might point out that the profits didn’t all come from horseracing. You’d be right. In fact, just 5-10% comes from horseracing bets. What those 27 Sch C’s do show is that I understand how to recognize and capitalize on an edge.

Here’s one more bit of evidence that I know how to recognize an edge (and I’ll agree it’s hardly “proof”). You can check out these two links. The Forbe’s article is good for background; the 2nd link mentions me specifically.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...h=32592578307f

https://www.blackjackreview.com/wp/2...ack-ball-2020/

Despite the 'Blackjack Ball' name, the 110 or so invitees come from multiple types of gambling. Bill Benter was there for at least the past two years. It’s an elite group, and I’m proud to have been invited the past 3 years.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Finally, I didn’t call you intellectually dishonest...yet. I said your analogy was. If you’re still stumped on what the difference between the two is I can help you out.

So my using an intellectually dishonest analogy doesn’t make me intellectually dishonest? Good to know!

Something tells me you will want to get in the last word…