Anothertwistafate

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

This is a good opportunity for a discussion I hope. I get that he won, but long term is that the kind of horse you want to be betting at 6/5?

There might be instances where a 6/5 horse might seem like value based on what he’s running against....but I’m curious what people think. Is 6/5 off a 16 month layoff value?

Off topic....I’m not sure who runs Emerald but I can’t help think that they would’ve handled much more on the race if it wasn’t run at 11:30 on the east coast on a Thursday night.

Emerald has been running Wed & Thurs to take advantage of not going vs the big boys. I don't have the numbers but I am pretty sure there handle is up significantly for the year.

You are absolutely correct. 6/5 on a layoff horse is not good value even if he lays over the field as in this case. You can make the argument that he should have been 1/2 so 6/5 is good value, but so many things can go wrong in a race that you can't make a profit in the long run betting odds on horses.

One of the worst bets on the weekend was the Mott's firster at the Spa who was touted all over the track after his sparkling works vs the trainer's norm. Bet to 3/5 like he was the steal of the century and everyone piling in to take advantage of the free money. Of course he didn't get out of the gate but that's irrelevant for this discussion. Even if he had romped he wasn't a good bet. There were too many unknowns for him to worth that price. If he really was that good,you could always get a chance to bet him at those odds his next start.