Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-08-2020, 10:36 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Is Gamine's opportunity at that distinction eliminated because she got beat at 9f?
No...but when a filly who runs by appointment only fails to switch leads at the top of the stretch like she has in her 4 prior races I’m thinking we might not get to see her on track too much longer. I hope I’m wrong, but that was not the same horse the final 1/4 as we have seen.

She’s not a two turn horse IMO and I don’t think we’ll ever get to see her run enough to think of her that way. Again, I hope I’m wrong...just trying to be realistic. Do you see Gamine having a long career?

My only point was I’m sure the guy who bought Princess Noor thinks highly of her. Based on her first two she could be any kind. Just seems funny to me to think of a horse in this era as a generational talent when they don’t run enough to warrant it.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-08-2020, 11:12 PM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

79 beyer seems a little light for a generational talent . Jackie’s Warrior looks like he is wicked fast. The only part of him the competition sees of him is his ass.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-10-2020, 01:11 PM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
79 beyer seems a little light for a generational talent . Jackie’s Warrior looks like he is wicked fast. The only part of him the competition sees of him is his ass.
Juvy winner. But has great turf foot too. He looks the part , but his action is a little funny up front left.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-09-2020, 05:48 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,210
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
No...but when a filly who runs by appointment only fails to switch leads at the top of the stretch like she has in her 4 prior races I’m thinking we might not get to see her on track too much longer. I hope I’m wrong, but that was not the same horse the final 1/4 as we have seen.

She’s not a two turn horse IMO and I don’t think we’ll ever get to see her run enough to think of her that way. Again, I hope I’m wrong...just trying to be realistic. Do you see Gamine having a long career?

My only point was I’m sure the guy who bought Princess Noor thinks highly of her. Based on her first two she could be any kind. Just seems funny to me to think of a horse in this era as a generational talent when they don’t run enough to warrant it.
Well, that calls for a determination of how much racing (and achievement) is enough to define a horse among its' peers and historically.

Gamine has had a pretty steady season debuting March 7 and then running on May 5, June 20, July 8, Sept 4 (with pandemic issues affecting the spacing between the first 2 starts). If she is going to turn out to be a one turn horse, then she ran quite OK Friday. Owner Peterson likes the action, so as long as she's healthy, she'll run. Baffert is staying in KY through the first part of KEE Sale next week, so we'll get an update later in the month when he gets back to California (assuming CA is still there). If she's directed towards the F&M Sprint, it will be a corker with her v. Serengeti.



Baffert echoed Gary Young's enthusiasm regarding Noor and her prospects on Monday. And to Dan's point, he specifically discussed the quick turnaround from first start to the Debutante and desire/instructions not to ask too much of her. The Chandelier is too soon (9/26), so I'd guess she trains up to the BC J-Fillies. She'll definitely have to speed it up at KEE and you may not get a read on her until next year.

__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 09-09-2020 at 06:02 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-09-2020, 06:46 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Gamine has made 5 starts through September of her 3 year old year. I don’t need to be Larry Bramlage to figure out she’s had some issues. I think the failure to switch leads until late is a sign of things to come, regardless of how much her owner likes the action.

I don’t think you get the same brilliance from her around two turns that you do one turn. Do you?

I’m sure Baffert thinks Princess Noor is great too. What else is he going to say? When has a trainer or someone who bought a horse come on your show and NOT said something glowing about their horse?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-09-2020, 07:23 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,210
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
Gamine has made 5 starts through September of her 3 year old year. I don’t need to be Larry Bramlage to figure out she’s had some issues. I think the failure to switch leads until late is a sign of things to come, regardless of how much her owner likes the action.

I don’t think you get the same brilliance from her around two turns that you do one turn. Do you?

I’m sure Baffert thinks Princess Noor is great too. What else is he going to say? When has a trainer or someone who bought a horse come on your show and NOT said something glowing about their horse?
There's any number of trainers who visit ATR that provide forthcoming, nuanced insight about the level of talent/progress of their horses, including, (maybe especially), Baffert.

Gamine didn't make the races at 2.. Is that highly unusual? She was approaching a debut at DMR when she was paused 90 days. She resumed training in November and prepared for the March debut. She's appeared regularly since. Of course the one turning Acorn/Test efforts stand out. We'll see how they proceed. Her worktab & race calendar is below. Is that the training and race record of an unsound horse?

RACE 9/4
Del Mar 08/29/2020 Dirt 6F 1:11.60 Handily 1/5
Del Mar 08/22/2020 Dirt 5F 1:00.80 Handily 15/74
RACE 8/8
Del Mar 08/02/2020 Dirt 6F 1:12.80 Handily 1/4
Del Mar 07/26/2020 Dirt 6F 1:12.60 Handily 2/7
Del Mar 07/19/2020 Dirt 5F 1:00.60 Handily 9/96
Del Mar 07/12/2020 Dirt 4F 48.80 Handily 25/106
Santa Anita 06/29/2020 Dirt 4F 51.40 Breezing 31/33
RACE 6/20
Santa Anita 06/13/2020 Dirt 6F 1:13.00 Handily 3/11
Santa Anita 06/07/2020 Dirt 6F 1:11.80 Handily 1/3
Santa Anita 05/31/2020 Dirt 4F 48.20 Handily 9/52
Santa Anita 05/24/2020 Dirt 4F 48.80 Handily 13/47
Santa Anita 05/16/2020 Dirt 4F 47.60 Handily 12/64
RACE 5/2
Santa Anita 04/24/2020 Dirt 5F 59.20 Handily 1/55
Santa Anita 04/16/2020 Dirt 5F 1:00.80 Handily 9/46
Santa Anita 04/04/2020 Dirt 6F 1:14.20 Handily 5/12
Santa Anita 03/29/2020 Dirt 5F 1:01.40 Handily 32/71
Santa Anita 03/22/2020 Dirt 4F 48.00 Handily 13/69
RACE 3/7
Santa Anita 03/02/2020 Dirt 4F 46.40 Handily 3/43
Santa Anita 02/23/2020 Dirt 6F 1:12.80 Handily 4/12
Santa Anita 02/13/2020 Dirt 4F 47.20 Handily 2/32
Santa Anita 02/05/2020 Dirt 5F 1:00.20 Handily 2/41
Santa Anita 01/29/2020 Dirt 5F 1:01.00 Handily 4/27
Santa Anita 01/22/2020 Dirt 5F 1:02.20 Handily 12/29
Santa Anita 01/15/2020 Dirt 4F 48.80 Handily 9/50
Santa Anita 01/08/2020 Dirt 4F 51.20 Handily 33/36
Los Alamitos Quarter Horse 12/29/2019 Dirt 4F 49.00 Handily 25/44
Los Alamitos Quarter Horse 12/19/2019 Dirt 4F 47.80 Handily 2/12
Los Alamitos Quarter Horse 12/12/2019 Dirt 4F 51.20 Handily 30/34
Los Alamitos Quarter Horse 12/02/2019 Dirt 3F 37.20 Handily 13/19
Los Alamitos Quarter Horse 11/24/2019 Dirt 3F 36.20 Handily 5/20
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Del Mar 07/31/2019 Dirt 5F 1:00.60 Handily 4/36
Del Mar 07/25/2019 Dirt 5F 1:00.00 Handily 1/50
Del Mar 07/18/2019 Dirt 5F 1:01.20 Handily 13/37
Santa Anita 07/10/2019 Dirt 4F 48.40 Handily 4/65
Santa Anita 07/04/2019 Dirt 4F 47.80 Handily 2/39
Santa Anita 06/26/2019 Dirt 4F 48.80 Handily 8/52
Santa Anita 06/19/2019 Dirt 3F 36.60 Handily 8/29
Santa Anita 06/13/2019 Dirt 3F 37.00 Handily 6/17
Santa Anita 06/06/2019 Dirt 3F 36.80 Handily 6/23
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 09-09-2020, 08:34 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Steve come on...I’m familiar with her work tab and race record. Don’t do that.

5 starts through September of your 3 year old season, even with Covid doesn’t scream warhorse. She’s worth a lot of money as a broodmare. Way more money than she could probably earn on the track.

I hope she runs 20 more times. But is anyone going to be surprised if she runs 2 more times?

I was playfully (I thought) needling you about the Gary Young comment. Of course the guy who bought the horse is going to speak highly of her. Hes self promoting. Being a generational talent (whatever that means nowadays) means he’s good at picking horses out. And he is.

I was trying to have some fun with you.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 09-09-2020, 10:19 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,210
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
I was trying to have some fun with you.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 09-09-2020 at 11:10 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 09-09-2020, 12:53 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,614
Default

My question would be a simple one. Does she have to run and excel at 9f or more in order to be deemed great? I know that in this country, dirt runners that compete at 9f (females) and 10f (males) are considered the best but I’ve never looked at it that way. We look down on sprinters and grass horses usually as horses that failed to continue on to the classic distances on dirt. So my question to Dahoss is this, is there anything that Gamine could do, even if she ran regularly next year, that would be good enough to call her a generational talent if she’s kept at 7-8f?
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:57 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.