Two at Toga

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Good call on Domestic Spending. I hope you’re right about the next one too.

For me, Officiating had a rough start and was out of it from there. Colonel Liam looked like he had a slow start as well (nothing close to what Officiating had). I’ll have to watch that again because he looked like he was going to make a big move and then Gufo flew by him. Gotta see it again to see what happened down the stretch. All those top finishers looked pretty darn good.

Thanks - unfortunately my next was dreadful, in fact both of my "best bets" are still running.

Not sure if it was the plan all along or an audible given the horrific start but Officiating appeared to just get a learning experience gallop around the track...be mildly interested to see 2nd out.
I agree on Colonel Liam and that race...nice group...Irad gave DS some ride and it likely was the difference. Plenty of upside still with a bunch of those.

Wagered: $16.00
Returned:$31.70

Today:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Stunning Sky - At first glance it would appear as if Stunning Sky had a perfect trip in the Lake Placid and it certainly wasn't horrible...but the more I watched the more I think the early move which caused Speaktomeofsummer to back out might've worked to the latter horses favor that day...Irad also was a bit stymied late before it admittedly parted perfectly...I think SS is more likely to appreciate the added ground than the 1. We'll see on Enola Gay, such an odd race last time I want to take one shot against and Ricetta is a huge question mark...I think I'll actually try to get through multis with just SS and Antoinette although I may throw Ricetta in there as well.
Best Value: Race 8 #9 Playtone - She appeared to have some ability breaking the maiden then was no match for Big Q (who is a must use for me)...I think that margin of defeat is deceptive as she took the worst of it and Manny wrapped her up well before the wire with second secured...I think the race two back the fig is low, not sure if it was a weird track that day but most runners there were well below normal. Don't have an excuse for the last but the subsequent layoff makes it seem something went awry and the worktab leading up to this indicates she's back. Weaver isn't great off layoffs but if you look at just dirt sprints at Toga I think his last bunch have been 80% ITM (don't quote me I looked it up around 4:30 this morning on formulator) with a couple winners and positive ROI.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Thanks - unfortunately my next was dreadful, in fact both of my "best bets" are still running.

Not sure if it was the plan all along or an audible given the horrific start but Officiating appeared to just get a learning experience gallop around the track...be mildly interested to see 2nd out.
I agree on Colonel Liam and that race...nice group...Irad gave DS some ride and it likely was the difference. Plenty of upside still with a bunch of those.

Wagered: $16.00
Returned:$31.70

Today:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Stunning Sky - At first glance it would appear as if Stunning Sky had a perfect trip in the Lake Placid and it certainly wasn't horrible...but the more I watched the more I think the early move which caused Speaktomeofsummer to back out might've worked to the latter horses favor that day...Irad also was a bit stymied late before it admittedly parted perfectly...I think SS is more likely to appreciate the added ground than the 1. We'll see on Enola Gay, such an odd race last time I want to take one shot against and Ricetta is a huge question mark...I think I'll actually try to get through multis with just SS and Antoinette although I may throw Ricetta in there as well.
Best Value: Race 8 #9 Playtone - She appeared to have some ability breaking the maiden then was no match for Big Q (who is a must use for me)...I think that margin of defeat is deceptive as she took the worst of it and Manny wrapped her up well before the wire with second secured...I think the race two back the fig is low, not sure if it was a weird track that day but most runners there were well below normal. Don't have an excuse for the last but the subsequent layoff makes it seem something went awry and the worktab leading up to this indicates she's back. Weaver isn't great off layoffs but if you look at just dirt sprints at Toga I think his last bunch have been 80% ITM (don't quote me I looked it up around 4:30 this morning on formulator) with a couple winners and positive ROI.

Good luck.

Good luck. Stunning Sky is the one that worries me against Enola Gay. We’ll see how it goes.

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Thanks - unfortunately my next was dreadful, in fact both of my "best bets" are still running.

Not sure if it was the plan all along or an audible given the horrific start but Officiating appeared to just get a learning experience gallop around the track...be mildly interested to see 2nd out.
I agree on Colonel Liam and that race...nice group...Irad gave DS some ride and it likely was the difference. Plenty of upside still with a bunch of those.

Wagered: $16.00
Returned:$31.70

Today:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Stunning Sky - At first glance it would appear as if Stunning Sky had a perfect trip in the Lake Placid and it certainly wasn't horrible...but the more I watched the more I think the early move which caused Speaktomeofsummer to back out might've worked to the latter horses favor that day...Irad also was a bit stymied late before it admittedly parted perfectly...I think SS is more likely to appreciate the added ground than the 1. We'll see on Enola Gay, such an odd race last time I want to take one shot against and Ricetta is a huge question mark...I think I'll actually try to get through multis with just SS and Antoinette although I may throw Ricetta in there as well.
Best Value: Race 8 #9 Playtone - She appeared to have some ability breaking the maiden then was no match for Big Q (who is a must use for me)...I think that margin of defeat is deceptive as she took the worst of it and Manny wrapped her up well before the wire with second secured...I think the race two back the fig is low, not sure if it was a weird track that day but most runners there were well below normal. Don't have an excuse for the last but the subsequent layoff makes it seem something went awry and the worktab leading up to this indicates she's back. Weaver isn't great off layoffs but if you look at just dirt sprints at Toga I think his last bunch have been 80% ITM (don't quote me I looked it up around 4:30 this morning on formulator) with a couple winners and positive ROI.

Good luck.

Like that you watched multiple replays and really like that your throw in horse ... Ricetta ... is a daughter of Camelot ... who almost won the British Triple Crown ... and ... of course his daddy ... Montjeu ... has Europeon offspring in a class of their own ... legendary ... shes bred to go long ... the distance will be to her liking and Euros often fire their best shot first time off the boat ... love that Juddmonte kept her ... they sell what they want and keep the cream .. so ... they think highly of her ... she's a good "throw-in" at 9/2 ML ... for sure ...

[moses]

Hoping that I can make this week at Saratoga a little bit better than the first week.

Best Bet: Race 5 - #5 McErin (9/2 ML). The pace here looks like it could be fairly quick between my selection, the #6, and the #7...but I'm banking here on the overall turf talent of this horse, who has flashed in turf sprints but tries for his first turf route in this one. The #8 Financial System is clearly the horse to beat and while I'm tempted to go with one of the closers, I just don't think the late runners are good enough here so I'll try to beat the favorite on the front end.

Longshot: Race 9 - #4 Tornado Crossing (15/1 ML). There is not a lot to like about this horse...but there isn't much to like about any of the horses in this race. The #4 Tornado Crossing had some bad luck two back and I thought suffered from a terrible ride in the most recent start, being ridden wide early into the first turn despite a slow start, making a move mid-race to move up into third, going wide around the second turn, and predictably running out of gas down the stretch. While the switch to Cohen doesn't inspire confidence, I expect this horse to go off at massive odds but really think that she could be in the mix if Cohen can work out a better trip for her.



Best bets: $20.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $20.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $40.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 6 #9 Balon Rose
Best Value: Race 5 #4 Golden Decision

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Hoping that I can make this week at Saratoga a little bit better than the first week.

Best Bet: Race 5 - #5 McErin (9/2 ML). The pace here looks like it could be fairly quick between my selection, the #6, and the #7...but I'm banking here on the overall turf talent of this horse, who has flashed in turf sprints but tries for his first turf route in this one. The #8 Financial System is clearly the horse to beat and while I'm tempted to go with one of the closers, I just don't think the late runners are good enough here so I'll try to beat the favorite on the front end.

Longshot: Race 9 - #4 Tornado Crossing (15/1 ML). There is not a lot to like about this horse...but there isn't much to like about any of the horses in this race. The #4 Tornado Crossing had some bad luck two back and I thought suffered from a terrible ride in the most recent start, being ridden wide early into the first turn despite a slow start, making a move mid-race to move up into third, going wide around the second turn, and predictably running out of gas down the stretch. While the switch to Cohen doesn't inspire confidence, I expect this horse to go off at massive odds but really think that she could be in the mix if Cohen can work out a better trip for her.



Best bets: $20.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $20.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $40.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

Right Thought, Wrong Horse: The Story of My Life

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Right Thought, Wrong Horse: The Story of My Life

That was nice of Irad to let Jose skate to the lead like that.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

That was nice of Irad to let Jose skate to the lead like that.

Yeah, not crazy about the ride from Irad, though I still don’t think Mcerin wins even if he let him loose.

[moses]

Well, day 6 of this didn't go well for me. Mcerin did not get the ride I was hoping and was probably not good enough anyway. Tornado Crossing ran well for a 35/1 horse and gained position down the stretch but ultimately came up too little too late. This is definitely becoming more difficult than I originally thought.

But anyway, on to Thursday's card. August 20th.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #3 Elegant Zip (10/1 ML). Elegant Zip gave it her best try last time out against the second choice in here Speightstown Gal, getting edged for 2nd by 1/2 a length. She is definitely capable here and should be a nice price. The #7 Lead Guitar looks formidable on last year's turf form but has not been quite as impressive this year and I consider her to be a vulnerable favorite here, preferring the two frontrunners in this race. With Elegant Zip drawing inside of Speightstown Gal, I think that might make the difference and allow Elegant Zip to turn the tables here. My hope is that the #6 Quality Stones doesn't throw a wrench in my pace projection, as she will likely try to get involved early with Carmouche aboard.

Longshot: Race 4 - #2 Freudian Analyst (6/1 ML). The two favorites are eligible to improve in their 2nd off the layoff...but so is the #2 Freudian Analyst in his 3rd race on the turf. All 3 horses on the outside, #6 Boom Boom Kaboom, #7 Disciplinarian, and #8 Threepointninenine look like they'll be forwardly placed, which could provide for a nice pace setup for Freudian Analyst, who only finished a nose behind the morning line favorite last time out and oddly altered in down the stretch that probably cost him a better finish. Yes, it's Keith O'Brien as the trainer and I couldn't tell you the last time that he's won a race...but in this group, this one has a chance.

Results so far.


Best bets: $24.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $24.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $48.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.