9/24 (PRX): Cotillion (G1), PA Derby (G2), Gallant Bob (G3)

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I'm using 3,4,5 and maybe a little 12 in the Derby. Again tossing Songbird who on paper is no faster then at least 2 of her rivals. And has to ship across country again.

While she is no lock in this race Timeform has her at least 4-5 points better than the second best horse in the race, 5-7 better than the third.

I dont look at Beyers any more so assume that is your figure maker of choice,

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

While she is no lock in this race Timeform has her at least 4-5 points better than the second best horse in the race, 5-7 better than the third.

The only thing Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia have going for them is that the race is only 8.5f, so Songbird probably won't win be able to spread-eagle the field on the far turn.

Cathryn Sophia cannot handle a fast pace in a route from any early position, and this race will have a sharp pace. Furthermore, Castellano likes to make early bids with this horse, which has cost her a couple of times at odds-on. Not really convinced she's a two-turn horse anyways, and its seems neither is Servis, who only called an audible when entering the KY Oaks (because Songbird was absent) and promptly went back to one-turn in the Acorn before disappearing during most of the summer.

Carina Mia is reunited with Leparoux, which might mean she will take back under a hold as she did in the Acorn. Having got his and her heads handed back to them by Songbird in the CCA Oaks, I presume he will wait until the stretch to pounce in the stretch. The problems are that first, she is coming off a 7f race in which he contested the lead and so may not be willing to settle and second, there might be too much ground to make up if Songbird is untouched early. Leparoux has to hope Castellano moves too soon with Cathryn Sophia.