Weekend Stakes Beyers: Melatonin 108

[KidCruz]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What were your variants for the two different race days?

My variant has it faster Sunday. No argument here. There is enough evidence of that with the low level claimers going 5.5 and the lower level milers being on terms with Westfest. That said, I think Beyer exaggerated the variant so as to flatter the G1. You have different numbers?

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

My variant has it faster Sunday. No argument here. There is enough evidence of that with the low level claimers going 5.5 and the lower level milers being on terms with Westfest. That said, I think Beyer exaggerated the variant so as to flatter the G1. You have different numbers?

I think Lord Nelson ran huge. He did all the dirty work and never quit.

[KidCruz]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think Lord Nelson ran huge. He did all the dirty work and never quit.

No argument. He ran big. Check out Shh She's Ours race. A very very nice filly chased her the whole way.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

My variant has it faster Sunday. No argument here. There is enough evidence of that with the low level claimers going 5.5 and the lower level milers being on terms with Westfest. That said, I think Beyer exaggerated the variant so as to flatter the G1. You have different numbers?

I didn't criticize the numbers. Why don't you give me all your dirt numbers for the two days so that I can see where the problem is.

[KidCruz]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I didn't criticize the numbers. Why don't you give me all your dirt numbers for the two days so that I can see where the problem is.

Put me on the payroll and I'll give you all my numbers

Put simply, on raw numbers, the filly ran >10 points faster than Lord Nelson. Lets say the variant is (-5) for Sunday off of Saturday. Still looks to be 5 points low.

Hey, I'm not an expert and maybe I am clouded by knowing just how talented Sensitively is. Just think there was a little bit of an overadjustment on that day by Beyer.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by KidCruz

Put me on the payroll and I'll give you all my numbers

Put simply, on raw numbers, the filly ran >10 points faster than Lord Nelson. Lets say the variant is (-5) for Sunday off of Saturday. Still looks to be 5 points low.

Hey, I'm not an expert and maybe I am clouded by knowing just how talented Sensitively is. Just think there was a little bit of an overadjustment on that day by Beyer.

I think your overrating Sensitively. She's clearly not as good without the lead. One way speed horse.

[RHT2004]

Very familiar with the race BTW. Bet Baffert thinking the 1-2 finishers would duel.