Santa Anita Showvivor starts Sept 26

[ranger5830]

Yesterday was probably the toughest day of the contest so far, as both of the top two picks were out of the money, so now with six days left there are only 14 perfect streaks left, as well as another 12 players who are one behind with active streaks of 12 in a row. I think it is certainly possible that nobody makes it through the meeting with a perfect streak.

As for my strategy, I had been trying to stay competitive in the "most wins" category by picking less obvious short priced horses, for instance yesterday I had the 2-1 favorite in the last race, 6 horse field, and only 12 people picked him. He didn't win, but I feel like it was a good pick seeing how I don't have a show streak to worry about.

Many people are playing for the big longshot, yesterdays least likely winner on paper had 49 picks for him. So I would think it would be wise to try and find sneaky longshots, maybe 15-1 morning line shots and hope they drift up.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Many people are playing for the big longshot, yesterdays least likely winner on paper had 49 picks for him. So I would think it would be wise to try and find sneaky longshots, maybe 15-1 morning line shots and hope they drift up.

I tried that strategy for the first time yesterday. I took a 30-1 shot when there was a 50-1 shot in the same race. I was really ticked at myself for being "cute" when I saw that the 50-1 shot came in. I'm much less bothered by it now that I see I would have shared the $500 with 16 other players.

Only 8 left with 14/14 show streaks. One of the 8, Sacatbox, is also just one behind in Win Streak and Total Wins.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I tried that strategy for the first time yesterday. I took a 30-1 shot when there was a 50-1 shot in the same race. I was really ticked at myself for being "cute" when I saw that the 50-1 shot came in. I'm much less bothered by it now that I see I would have shared the $500 with 16 other players.

Only 8 left with 14/14 show streaks. One of the 8, Sacatbox, is also just one behind in Win Streak and Total Wins.

Sorry if I talked you off a winner, but if it makes you feel any better you wouldn't have even gotten 1/16th of $500, the tiebreaker for highest win payout is longest show streak, and player kriskring3, who picked the longshot winner as his/her pick yesterday, previously had a show streak of 8 in a row, which gives him a clear lead over everyone he is tied with, seeing how there are only 5 race days left, and none of the other players have an active streak higher than 3.

Now that the bar has been raised to $97.20 it's going to be a lot harder to find a sneaky horse that will pay that much, you just have to take the longshot and hope for the best, maybe one can find a 20-1 in a big field that gets overlooked.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Sorry if I talked you off a winner, but if it makes you feel any better you wouldn't have even gotten 1/16th of $500, the tiebreaker for highest win payout is longest show streak, and player kriskring3, who picked the longshot winner as his/her pick yesterday, previously had a show streak of 8 in a row, which gives him a clear lead over everyone he is tied with, seeing how there are only 5 race days left, and none of the other players have an active streak higher than 3.

Now that the bar has been raised to $97.20 it's going to be a lot harder to find a sneaky horse that will pay that much, you just have to take the longshot and hope for the best, maybe one can find a 20-1 in a big field that gets overlooked.

No, I came upon the strategy independently. I hadn't seen your post when I made the pick.

I forgot about the tiebreaker, though. That settles it for me. The intense pressure is off. No more picks for this round of Showvivor.

[Dunbar]

Last day of Showvivor, and some interesting races. None of the categories are decided yet.

Show Streak:
5 players are 18/18. If they all go 19/19, rodrodman will either win it, or split the prize with deadeye if deadeye gets a win and rodrodman doesn't.

If rodrodman and deadeye both miss with their show picks, it opens things up for the other 3 18/18's.

Win Streak:
3 players have a chance at this prize. 2 are at 6/6. But if they can't find a winner today, the prize will go to JoeCat, who has a dead streak of 6 wins, but would win on the 'most wins' tiebreaker with 12.

Total Wins:
3 players have a chance to win this, including, again, JoeCat. He and another player have 12 wins; one player has 11.

Total Places:
4 players have a chance to win a piece of this; 2 with 10 places and 2 with 9 places. Those with 9 can only get a share if neither of the top 2 picks up another place today AND they themselves pick a winner today.

Biggest Win Payout:
15 players are tied with 97.20, but only 2 have a chance at the prize. Tiebreaker is longest show streak.
kriskring3 has a dead streak of 8 and is guaranteed at least half the prize money.
catwoman has a live streak of 7/7. If she can pick a winner today, she'll tie kriskring3 on the 2nd tiebreaker, too. (most wins).
(This all assumes that the 97.20 holds up as biggest win payoff)

Clearly, I have a bit too much time on my hands this morning!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Last day of Showvivor, and some interesting races. None of the categories are decided yet.

Show Streak:
5 players are 18/18. If they all go 19/19, rodrodman will either win it, or split the prize with deadeye if deadeye gets a win and rodrodman doesn't.

If rodrodman and deadeye both miss with their show picks, it opens things up for the other 3 18/18's.

deadeye got the win and splits the prize with rodrodman, both of them with 19/19 and 10 wins.

Win Streak:
3 players have a chance at this prize. 2 are at 6/6. But if they can't find a winner today, the prize will go to JoeCat, who has a dead streak of 6 wins, but would win on the 'most wins' tiebreaker with 12.

None of the 3 who were at 6/6 could extend the streak, so JoeCat wins the prize money.

Total Wins:
3 players have a chance to win this, including, again, JoeCat. He and another player have 12 wins; one player has 11.

JoeCat won this one, too. Two players had 12 wins, but JoeCat had one more Place.

Total Places:
4 players have a chance to win a piece of this; 2 with 10 places and 2 with 9 places. Those with 9 can only get a share if neither of the top 2 picks up another place today AND they themselves pick a winner today.

The 2 with 10 weren't able to add one, nor did the 2 with 9 who had a shot. The tie-breaker rules are written so poorly that I can't tell who won.

Biggest Win Payout:
15 players are tied with 97.20, but only 2 have a chance at the prize. Tiebreaker is longest show streak.
kriskring3 has a dead streak of 8 and is guaranteed at least half the prize money.
catwoman has a live streak of 7/7. If she can pick a winner today, she'll tie kriskring3 on the 2nd tiebreaker, too. (most wins).
(This all assumes that the 97.20 holds up as biggest win payoff)

catwoman missed today, so kriskring3 won the prize.

I'm not sure why I find Showvivor so amusing, but, um...when does the next one start?

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

deadeye got the win and splits the prize with rodrodman, both of them with 19/19 and 10 wins.

Actually rodrodman wins the prize as he won the second tiebreak which is most places.

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The 2 with 10 weren't able to add one, nor did the 2 with 9 who had a shot. The tie-breaker rules are written so poorly that I can't tell who won.

The winner is one of the two who had six wins, as that is the first tiebreak. The second tiebreak is most shows, and that info is not publicly posted so there is no way of knowing who won.

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not sure why I find Showvivor so amusing, but, um...when does the next one start?

The next showvivor should start on the next Santa Anita opening day, 12/26. I'll be at the track for opening day and I already can't wait for the next round!

[ranger5830]

So the Santa Anita meet ended yesterday, and while it wasn't nearly as exciting for me as the winter-spring edition, it was still quite the battle that came down to the last day. Only three players managed to make 19 perfect show selections put of 3149 who got at least one correct through the course of the meeting. Congrats to rodrodman who won by the narrowest of margins, being tied in both show streak and total wins, and winning the second tiebreak, total places, by only one. Tough beat for deadeye who lost by only one place spot, hopefully Santa Anita offers a consolation prize to ease the pain somewhat.

I decided once again to break down the odds-on favorites by field size, a total of 35 horses were odds-on favorites, and 28 of them finished in the money, for a success rate of only 80%. Here is the breakdown by field size:

field size ITM% #of applicable horses
13 0 1
12 100 3
10 100 2
9 75 4
8 100 6
7 83.3 6
6 71.4 7
5 66.7 6

So it's too small a sample size to really be meaningful but it was interesting that the horse Wade, who was 3-5 in the 13 horse nightcap on Columbus day, became the first odds-on favorite of the entire calendar year to finish off the board in a 12 or 13 horse field. And that other than the 9-horse fields, horses were actually more likely to come in as the field size grew.