15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[jms62]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

Yes none of them were 2 year old champs. Easy Goer was but never won either Derby or Preakness

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Yes none of them were 2 year old champs. Easy Goer was but never won either Derby or Preakness

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

I think everyone already knows this, but what the heck, I'll state the obvious.

When a horse is referred to as a lock, people usually will mean that the horse is a lock barring injury, really bad trips, etc...

As for your list of locks, in what universe was Sunday Silence a lock? Hell, I can make a case that Easy Goer really should have won the Preakness, as he turned his head sideways during the stretch and tried to savage Sunday Silence.

California Chrome got injured. See above on that.

The Bid and SJ both had really stupid rides.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

As for your list of locks, in what universe was Sunday Silence a lock? Hell, I can make a case that Easy Goer really should have won the Preakness, as he turned his head sideways during the stretch and tried to savage Sunday Silence.
.

Pat Day said that he turned Easy Goer's head to look at him; EG wasn't trying to bite SS.

http://articles.latimes.com/1989-06-...-laffit-pincay

(Really entertaining article about the 1989 Preakness and the East vs West riding styles. Note that Sunday Silence is talked about at the end like a lock for the Belmont. )

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Pat Day said that he turned Easy Goer's head to look at him; EG wasn't trying to bite SS.

http://articles.latimes.com/1989-06-...-laffit-pincay

(Really entertaining article about the 1989 Preakness and the East vs West riding styles. Note that Sunday Silence is talked about at the end like a lock for the Belmont. )

I don't know I believe that, because if that's true, my already ultra low opinion on Pat Day as a jockey just plummeted to new impossibly low depths.

Who in their right mind would do that? If it's true, that's actually much worse than had it been EG turning his head to bite SS.

Also, I once saw a picture of that incident. It really did look like EG was trying to bite SS, but who knows.

I can't really figure out a reason why Pat Day would lie about him turning EG's head, but likewise, I can't figure out a reason why he would himself turn his head. EG had to know SS was inches from him.

[NavalOrange]

I am not sure of the significance of being a 2YO champion since it is an award that is voted on. Also I do not think the horse knows he was 2YO champion.

Hoist The Flag would have won the TC if he did not breakdown in training that spring.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I can't really figure out a reason why Pat Day would lie about him turning EG's head, but likewise, I can't figure out a reason why he would himself turn his head. EG had to know SS was inches from him.

I totally agree, and the article even pointed that out, but I can't figure out why Pat Day would lie about it. I mean, it's not like it was going to cost Easy Goer any employment opportunities.

For what it's worth, Day criticized himself for that ride, too. As did McGaughey.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

There is no way in the world you thought SS and CC were locks.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by cakes44

There is no way in the world you thought SS and CC were locks.

me personally no. but the press and many fans thought so. besides The Bid, I thought Smarty was the one, but hey **** happens. and if the racing god's did not allow The Bid or Smarty in, They will not allow AP in either, bring on the longshots!!!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

me personally no. but the press and many fans thought so. besides The Bid, I thought Smarty was the one, but hey **** happens. and if the racing god's did not allow The Bid or Smarty in, They will not allow AP in either, bring on the longshots!!!

Hey Travis, is this an example of what you mean by horseplayer/handicapper instead of 'hater'??

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

Correct