3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Just talking to Andy and he made very logical point that Upstart almost certainly will be between 15-1/20-1 (or more) given the highly prominent love interests (Bafferts'/Pletchers') that will take tons of money..

Thanks Steve. Is that 15-20/1 Derby Day or the end of today?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Thanks Steve. Is that 15-20/1 Derby Day or the end of today?

Derby Day..

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Derby Day..

May get to 50-1 if it gets out that I like him

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jms62

May get to 50-1 if it gets out that I like him

I'm not being sarcastic. What is it about this horse that people have liked?

I've never seen it for myself, and I view him as a horse that would clean up state bred money and pick up pieces in open company.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm not being sarcastic. What is it about this horse that people have liked?

I've never seen it for myself, and I view him as a horse that would clean up state bred money and pick up pieces in open company.

Value. Unless I am blown away in the next 2 weeks I see the winner coming out of Fla or Cal preps this year. You can make a case that he could be undefeated as a 3 year old and if you are giving me 15-20 to 1 then there are worse things for me to invest my money in. Of course I reserve the right to change my mind 50 times before they line them up.

[-BT-]

hopefully one of these will be a "golden ticket"


$5 win
Far Right 39-1
Upstart 18-1

$10 win
International Star 17-1
Materiality 12-1

$35 win
Carpe Diem 10-1


-bt-

[FATPIANO]

If Upstart is 15-1, I wil be all over him, he is genuine

[bare it all]

Anyone who put money on Far From Over right before wagering closed should be pretty mad right now. Injury said to have occured in his gallop Saturday. Detected Sunday... Just now being announced?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by bare it all

Anyone who put money on Far From Over right before wagering closed should be pretty mad right now. Injury said to have occured in his gallop Saturday. Detected Sunday... Just now being announced?

i think this is one of the reasons why it's called gambling instead of winning.
one has to expect stuff like this. hell, i had money on a sure win once-the jock fell off at the start. what are you gonna do?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by bare it all

Anyone who put money on Far From Over right before wagering closed should be pretty mad right now. Injury said to have occured in his gallop Saturday. Detected Sunday... Just now being announced?

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think this is one of the reasons why it's called gambling instead of winning.
one has to expect stuff like this. hell, i had money on a sure win once-the jock fell off at the start. what are you gonna do?

Danzig, as you note, with the Future Wager the chance that a horse won't be in the gate on Derby Day is a known factor, and would obviously be included in handicapping the bet. But that doesn't excuse withholding information about current conditions.

However, I don't see anything to indicate that the injury was "Detected Sunday" as the original poster wrote. Pletcher is quoted in the Courier-Journal as saying the injury was detected Monday, which was well after the close of betting for the Future Wager:

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...ured/70717866/

--Dunbar

[bare it all]

Dunbar -

I'm noting Sunday from a quote on Bloodhorse...

""He was walking a little short the day after the work," said Nick Sallusto, racing manager for majority owner Steve Marshall's Black Rock Thoroughbreds."

Perhaps they didn't do an xray or a scan on him until Monday and that's when it was over for his chances.