2/22 (FG): Risen Star (G2), Mineshaft, FG, Rachel Alexandra (G3's)

[pmayjr]

I find it interesting that Pletcher sends Intense Holiday here instead of keeping him at Gulfstream for the Fountain of Youth. So in his last 3 races he's finished behind Havana, Honor Code and Cairo Prince. I think Pletcher is gauging how he really stacks up, and crazy enough I think he gets a little class relief going here. It's "put up or shut up" time for this horse, and I think he delivers with a monster effort and wins.

I think Vicar's in Trouble's post position is overblown. If he breaks alertly, I think there's only 3 speed-balls to his inside that could cause him trouble. So as long as he breaks alertly, he can settle in behind the pace only 3-4 wide into the first turn. He'll have first run at the leaders going for home and he'll be as dangerous as ever.

I think Hopportunity will be dangerous. He's improving and he lost to Bayern in his career debut while not breaking alertly. So I think he fits in with these and will be flying late.

Quick Indian is a sentimental play I'm using underneath. He's owned by Canterbury regulars Dan Lynch and (owned/trained) Merrill Scherer. This race is a "next logical step" for him after breaking his maiden and winning an AOC at Fairgrounds last out. He's not worse (on paper) than any of the other fringe players in here, so why not?

But in Conclusion I really think Intense Holiday gets back on track in here and wins