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Old 11-08-2006, 08:18 PM
eurobounce
 
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Default Was there really a rail bias?

I was watching all the dirt Breeders Cup races and I sort of convinced myself that there wasnt a rail bias. Lets go through the races here.

Dreaming Of Anna - She raced in the 3-4 path the entire time until they turned for home and then she went into the 1 path and kicked clear from Octave. Octave actually raced on the inside of DOA the entire race until they turned for home.

Round Pond - Well she raced on the rail the entire time. However, she actually went to the outside of the 3 horse around the turn. Then she sort of got boxed in. Then when they turned for home, the only spot for her to go was the rail. The 9 went wide and Prado sent Round Pond through the rail. Asi Siempre, prob would have won the race with a better trip. In this case, I dont think you can say it was a rail bias.

Thors Echo - Well he was no where near the rail. He went 3-4 wide around two horses and turned for home and just kicked clear. He actually moved over the 2 hole late in the race when he was well clear and there were no challengers. I will say that there was no rail bias in this race.

Street Sense - Well the 1st two finsihers were last and 2nd to last. The pace was freaking fast for these horses and Street Sense was closing ground all the way down the back stretch. Borel didnt even switch leads or whip the horse. Stormello had the rail but he didnt help him at all. So why would it help Street Sense and not Stormello?? I think that we saw a freak performance to a horse won lost by a nose to Quay and who was training like a monster at Churchill. I will say that there was not a rail bias in this race either. If there was, how do you explain Stormello?

Invasor - Well we all know he went extremely wide. But if there was a rail bias then why did Brother Derek do better than he did. Why would the 1st and 2nd place horse go wide around the turn to win. Again, I dont think there was a rail bias in this race.

I think that it was just a freak day where we saw the 1 horse win. Dreaming Of Anna was the best horse in her race. Street Sense was a huge underlay based on his last race and they way he loves Churchill. Thors Echo just lost to Bornordaro and had a 116 beyer. Round Pond is a Grade I winner in a race where the 2 favs broke down. So I am not buying the rail bias.
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