Derby Top Ten Lists

[Calzone Lord]

I see they are doing a poll style ranking over at Paulick Report like Travis did a few years ago...

http://www.paulickreport.com/feature...ing-the-crown/

It's pretty pointless to do these because of how lightly raced everyone is -- but here would be my top 10 if I had a gun to my head.

#1 Out of Bounds - won a fast edition of the Sham Stakes last time out in a race where the entire field had clean and efficent trips. The Sham went 2 lengths faster than a Grade 2 stakes for older males that same day.

If you happened to think Discreet Cat was a sprinter/miler (I didn't) you have to like his pedigree, because 8 different Kentucky Derby winners since 2000 have been sired by confirmed sprinter/milers. The dam of Out of Bounds won the Breeders Cup Distaff by closing from 10th with just 3 furlongs to go and surging down the center of the track. Dallas Stewart (he stinks!) trained her.

I don't know if Out of Bounds is really any good...he just about as good as anyone else right now and he has the fewest number of strikes against him. He's got graded earnings, he's got raw speed, he's proven he can take dirt and close late, nothing about his pedigree turns me off...and he's been working like clockwork since the Sham. Six straight workouts since that race, one of every seven days, a good indication he's healthy, well, and hasn't had any setbacks.


#2: Algorithims - He's another with very few strikes against him. A lot of the Pletcher's who start up early at GP are on the decline by the Derby...but there's nothing else to dislike.


#3: El Padrino - The dam ran one time, the sire only ran 6 times. Health and soundness are important. The fast race was on a wet track. Another Pletcher who started early at GP.

#4: Secret Circle - I think he might be the all-around best horse I've seen in this crop. All tremendous races sprinting ... I think he can relax routing and should move forward with two routes in him.

#5: Fed Biz - A lot of ability. He's green and should continue to improve. Two routes into him...but no Graded earnings yet and still untested in certain racing situations.

#6: I'll Have Another - Made a mockery of the Bob Lewis field off of a long layoff. Sire won the Travers. Damsire Arch sired Blame. Has speed, has Graded earnings, moved up at two-turns.

#7: Union Rags - He was one of my absolute highest rated horses from the 2yo in training sales. I loved him as an early sprint prospect -- I didn't think he'd ever go more than 7 furlongs tops. His dam was a fragile horse. She had a 3 race career -- and didn't make her 2nd start till age 5.

#8: Bodemeister - He just won a maiden race and is far behind these horses in seasoning...but no one can say they're better than him in route ability.

#9: Gemologist - Was arguably Pletcher's best 2yo router. He has Graded Earnings. Being a late starter (for that barn) might be a plus in May. His sire Tiznow didn't even break his maiden till late May of his 3yo season...and he doesn't sire precocity unless he gets a lot of help from the dam side. He has some good angles for him, however he's never ran a race that justifies him being placed in a top 5.

#10: Alpha - He's kind of slow. He was in front of Union Rags after a quarter mile in a fast paced BC Juvie won on the lead by Hansen...and he responded with a non-effort. He hasn't been beating much in NY. I like his trainer, he has a lot of Graded earnings, he might be the most likely horse of them all to finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby ... but I haven't seen a race of his I like yet.