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#11
10-04-2011, 07:47 AM
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Uncle Mo is obviously very talented, and the sky is the limit in terms of his ability. When healthy, we've seen what he can do and there is no denying that.
I thought Jerry Bailey made an interesting comment in that his Kelso reminded him of Ghostzapper, and he then said how Ghostzapper was able to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, so we'll see. Obviously Uncle Mo has a long ways to go before he's the next Ghostzapper (or maybe just one brilliant start in the Classic), but for my money, with short odds in the starting gate, I think you have to think about betting against him. An easy lead in the slop at Belmont Park going one mile is totally different than a pressured pace going ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. I have a hard time believing he would have sustained that pace last year and pulled away late, much less held off Blame and Zenyatta... and even Fly Down or Lookin at Lucky. I understand that the distance question with Mo is somewhat fluid, because he really hasn't done a lot to say he can't go farther than 1-1/16 miles. But the conditions in the Classic figure to be far more intense than what he saw this weekend, and combined with the price, makes for an excellent bet against. If he wins - fantastic - he lives up to everything he's hinted at since last summer and is a star. And maybe with the right wagering, a bet or two can still be hit. But as of right now, there's enough gas in the race to make me look elsewhere. 
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