4/23: Gulfstream ($1.4MM P6 C/O); Keeneland (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

Got off to strong start at Keeneland Friday keying off another Wes Ward 2yo for an exotics sweep, but whiffed thereafter. Not only was the Kentucky action a leaky vessel, but my live play at Gulfstream was frustrating as well. Hope you did OK. Am en route back to Louisville after a nice week in Florida, and live coverage of Derby/Oaks 137 begins Monday from Churchill Downs. Meanwhile, a big Saturday is in the offing as the Lexington at KEE looks to perhaps add Silver Medallion to the Rose Run field and Gulfstream distributes its' steady-built Rainbow 6 carryover pot. The pool should eclipse the $5,000,000 mark, and though the wager isn't a smart play day in, day out, the mandatory payout makes this particular sequence well worth trying. Unfortunately, we will largely be going up against a number of syndicates that figure to cover many, many more multiples than lone wolf players can afford. But even small budget can take a quality swing at the challenging sequence, and my suggestion for $96 is below. Enjoy the day... Talk to you from the Downs Monday!


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Eddie Set Go 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Senor Dehere 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Wear the Crown 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 E Knows Why 4-1 10th


7th: 81st Ben Ali (G3), 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

If Exhi is ready off the break, he is certainly the horse to beat, but Dean's Kitten owns the recentness edge..

Best Value: #4 Dean's Kitten 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Exhi 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Stay Put 4-1 5th


8th: 15th Giant's Causeway, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Typically brutal turf sprint..

Most Likely: #3 Rose Catherine 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Holiday for Kitten 8-1 WON ($25.60)
Next Best: #11 Stormy Publisher 3-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Chantilly Nayla 10-1 5th


9th: 30th Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Was greatly disappointed by Silver Medallion's uninspired effort in the Santa Anita Derby and hardly am enthralled by the rush job turnaround to this, but he is the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #2 Silver Medallion 8-5 4th
Best Value: #5 Taptowne 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Casper's Touch 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Derby Kitten 4-1 WON ($20.40)


10th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Special Action a half to KEE-loving Aikenite..

Most Likely: #4 Tale of the Dance 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Special Action 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Jo the Cat 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Saturday Dance 4-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Gallant Pleasure 6-1 4th


<$50 P5 Play:

6: 3-4-5-8
7: 3-4
8: 3-7-9-11
9: 2-5-6
10: 4

4x2x4x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-4
8: 3-6-7-9-10-11
9: 1-2-5-6
10: 4-7

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Love the Serpe T2D and cutback player in this spot..

Best Value: #11 Rumbletown 10-1 7th
Next Best: #13 Indian Fog 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Marias Pass 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Captain Crench 6-1 WON ($10.40)


8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Monitor SCR sheet carefully as Mustang Island uber-dangerous as draw-in..

Most Likely: #3 Walt's Whiz 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Danny's Prayer 15-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Reign of Kings 6-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Knight Shot 8-1 2nd


9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favored Zero Rate Policy may be leaned upon as single on many tix, but it doesn't feel that simple, especially with crafty Fawkes (Vimana) and intriguing Servis (Christies) 2nd timers looming..

Most Likely: #10 Zero Rate Policy 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Christiesborntorun 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Vimana 5-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Hebert Hall 4-1 2nd


10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Performing 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #2 Soveriegn Crisis 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Ithinkihadthatone 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 More Is Better 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (9-8) Paid: $14.00
$1 Trifecta (9-8-2) Paid: $32.70


11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Tough group, but those that are playing small tix may want to make a stand here with Albertrani entry stalwart..

Best Value: #1 Capital Market 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Hariolus 4-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #12 Gathering Cloud 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Catalan 12-1 8th

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid: $22.60
$1 Trifecta (3-1-12) Paid $71.80


12th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Would love to spread wider, but budget may hinder your anchor leg decisions..

Most Likely: #9 Diaper Dandy 5-2 11th
Best Value: #11 Avorio 20-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Chance Review 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Sassidy 3-1 4th


<$100 P6 Play:

7: 11-13
8: 1-2-3-4-9-12
9: 6-7-10
10: 2-9
11: 1-3-12
12: 2-9-11-12

2x6x3x2x3x4 = 864 x .10 = $86.40


<$75 P5 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4-9-12
9: 6-7-10
10: 2-9
11: 1-3
12: 9-11

6x3x2x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 6-7-10
10: 2-8-9-11
11: 1-3-12
12: 2-9-11-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve