Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
How much do you know about betting that you are trying to fool us into thinking 50% of the action is in the win pool?
25% is fair....at best. Suddenly a $40 bet drops the price as much as 60 cents.
But, you have to realize this isn't the entire point. The other part of the point is that the betting crowd isn't sophisticated, which leads to relative overlays, so while in theory you can say this would make it easier to make money, there are still two problems here. One, as was already stated, even minor bets significantly change the prices....and two, the paper ROI is rendered meaningless by both the first reason and the second that there is no sophisticated money in the pools. Both factors that inflate the paper ROI would significantly deflate it in the real world.
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The win pool is only 25% of the MUTUEL pool? At what track?!? And you're calling ME out on this??? 50% is probably conservative at a track like PID where the place and show pools are nonexistent! Here is the chart for the last race at PID:
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndex...=20100703&RN=8
"Sophisticated money" has no bearing on the analysis. The money in the pools is what it is. Where it comes from, either in location or knowledge, is irrelevant once the gates open and the prices are finalized.
07-05-2010, 10:17 AM
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