1/28: Gulfstream ($68k C/O)

[Kasept]

Gulfstream carryover doubled past $68k Wednesday via a sequence that had those tough-but-not-impossible types winners that just kept accruing. In fact, given the victor's prices and spots in the wagering pecking order, it's impressive that there were some $4,025 consos for 5 of 6:

4th: Sophisticatedevent (3rd choice-$5.90) $13.80
5th: B L's Tsumani (4th choice-$6.20) $14.40
6th: Sr. Henry (5th choice-$7.10) $16.20
7th: Havanadaydream (6th choice-$12.60) $27.20
8th: Candy Cane (Favored-$2.40) $6.80
9th: Mutiny (2nd choice-$4.90) $11.80

The morning line situation at Hallandale continues to be laughable, and feature race heroine Candy Cane, (6-1 ML 4th choice, off as the 5-2 favorite), was just another example. If you don't make your own line, you are probably best off ignoring the Gulfstream ML completely. Those who say the accuracy of the ML shouldn't matter in your play miss the portion of the equation where the psyche of ticket-building enters into it. Not everyone can place bets as the day unfolds with the ability to board watch and evaluate based on the reshuffling of the deck on the toteboard. And if you think you are singling a slightly daring horse on your P3, P4 or P6 ducat based on the ML, it affects how you build the rest of your ticket. Now whales and highly-experienced players may not be affected by this mundanity, but I guarantee that "weekend players" and moderately experienced punters are absolutely being confused or questioning their decisions because of the hopelessly inaccurate ML's being offered by the GP oddsmaker.

Today's P6 is challenging of course but seems approachable. I had a few spot hits yesterday and kept the losses reasonable, and hope you did OK. The full fields and oddly varied race conditions are making GP tough so far, but I get the feeling with Sunshine Millions ahead Saturday, that the lucrative hits are within reach. Have started the year off particularly poorly and lost a lot of money since Christmas, so with the Magna 5 and the best of the winter racing season arriving, the time is now to get going!


GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Forest Trail 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Mystic Miracle 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Cavan Thunder 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Becky's Exchange 15-1 6th


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Obviously, with a group of proven "can't win" types, you need to gravitate to the FTS (first time starters) and ones who haven't established that they are hopeless.

Most Likely: #5 Wendy's Wonder 4-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Gibson Crystal 8-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Can't Stop Lovin 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Gadamis 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (10-6) Paid $17.00
$1 Trifecta (10-6-9) Paid $118.30


5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Sharper Lisa 6-1 9th
Most Likely: #9 Magic Tune 3-1 12th
Next Best: #10 Missy Miner 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Prime Precision 6-1 4th


6th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-Inner Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favorites from Lynch (#3/4-1) and Maker (#10/7-2) are absolutely no better than several here, and like yesterday with the ordinary Florentino, you can protect in multis but swing for the fences using prices within the race..

Best Value: #1 Phil the Thrill 10-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 Mint Maker 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Big Blue Streaker 8-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Phoenix Force 10-1 WON


7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Macho Grande 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Scorpion Strike 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Johannesburg Place 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Fitzaslew 3-1 WON


8th: OC/C, F&M-4+, 1m-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Celtic Princess 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Wasted Tears 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Savoir Bien 4-1 2nd


9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Road Track's Dream 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Star Emerald 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Zubani 6-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Gator Track's 20-1 8th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 5-10
5: 2-9
6: 1-4
7: 2-5-6-7
8: 1-4-5
9: 5

2x2x2x4x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-9-10-11
7: 2-5-6-7
8: 1-4-5
9: 4-5

6x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (11/2,9/5/5,6,10,12) Paid $333.25


Good luck!
Steve