Mockery of Sport?

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You had a personal tie to Musket Man so he was a price and value to you. And he was actually a mediocre win bet at 19-1. 25 or 30-1 was a more appropriate number for him. This is kind of my point... Most horses now on the Derby win line are at least 20-30% below their appropriate price.

General Quarters was 10-1 ($10.30), and yes, that was silly. 5-1 on Dunkirk and 10-1 on Chocolate Candy were low. 13-1 on Hold Me Back was less than acceptible... Etc..

Here's the Derby listed by final odds; finish; ML; My own personal 'acceptable' win price.

Note that for all the grief Battaglia takes, how accurate his line turned out to be for all but the middle priced (10-1 to 20-1) horses. He was right on with the three top choices and deadly with everything 30-1 or higher.

Betting choice-Finish-Odds:$1-ML-Personal Win $

1. (18) Friesan Fire 3.80 (5-1) 8-1
2. (11) Dunkirk 5.20 (4-1) 12-1
3. (2) Pioneerof the Nile 6.30 (4-1) 10-1
4. (5) Chocolate Candy 10.00 (20-1) 15-1 [My win selection]
5. (10) General Quarters 10.30 (20-1) 30-1
6. (4) Papa Clem 12.20 (20-1) 20-1
7. (12) Hold Me Back 12.70 (15-1) 20-1
8. (14) Desert Party 14.80 (15-1) 25-1
9. (3) Musket Man 19.00 (20-1) 25-1
10. (8) Regal Ransom 22.60 (30-1) 30-1
11. (15) Mr. Hot Stuff 28.40 (30-1) 30-1
12. (9) West Side Bernie 32.40 (30-1) 20-1
13. (6) Summer Bird 43.60 (50-1) 40-1
14. (17) Nowhere to Hide 45.50 (50-1) 200-1
15. (19) Flying Private 46.60 (50-1) 75-1
16. (13) Advice 49.00 (30-1) 150-1
17. (1) Mine That Bird 50.60 (50-1) 150-1
18. (7) Join in the Dance 51.40 (50-1) 50-1
19. (16) Atomic Rain 55.20 (50-1) 50-1

steve - i know you for a few years , but how you come up with a 12/1 line on dunkirk makes no sense to me, i probably don't get it- he was a good second on a speed favoring track to a horse that would have been the favorite or 2nd choice if he was in the field

can you walk me through how you would come up with 12/1 on him against this field ?