State by State

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

so like i said to kev...

if there's no way mccain wins ohio, why are the dems campaigning so hard there?

McCain will win Ohio easily, since he picked Palin. Obama's campaigning there, as he doesn't want to lose by as wide a margin as it will probably be (so that it doesn't look to the west coast, CA, OR, etc that he doesn't have a chance before their polls close... also holds true for the mountain/central time zones, whose polls close after Ohio's). That will help all the local dems in those areas, as it'll make more of their base go to the polls west of Ohio (could easily get deterred if he's already predicted the loser). Actually smart on their behalf (I hope it doesn't work!!!), as the dems want to have the congress if McCain gets elected... to try to counter him.

If Dean and the democrats think they can win OH without Hillary, they're way out of touch with reality. The republican women vote could have gone to Obama if they picked Hillary (which probably would have been enough for Obama to win about 52-48), but without a woman on the ticket, they're sunk as any of the rural areas will not vote for a black guy. I'd say McCain wins OH 55-44 (always have to throw a percent or 2 for some crazy 3rd party).

I lived in rural OH for 24 years... trust me, I know the area and their voting habits well.