AP Late Pick-4, 7/18

[brianwspencer]

Eh, figured I'd give it a shot here.

Race 7:
#2 Viva Vino: Dam side has zero green, but Giant's Causeway could do plenty to help. First two runs were plenty good.
#3 Cavan Thunder: Half to Dance Away Capote, get the feeling she's better than we've seen up to this point.
#7 Royal One: Last was solid; this is probably shorter than she wants to go, but she's got to be included off that runner-up finish last out.
#10 Peintre Fraiche: Huge second last time, missing by just two and a half lengths to a runner who's since come back to score easily in a NW1X on July 4th. No easy lead today, but probably the one to catch in the stretch.

Race 8:
#1 Big Vic: Love the debut score, don't mind the follow-up try against winners, hate the first Poly effort. Also not too thrilled with the sparse work tab since, but he did fire a bullet in his last drill.....17 days ago. His best makes him impossible to leave out, but including him for fear of getting beat, rather than really loving him.
#3 Jaybird's Miracle: Way overdue to finally get home first. Usually sent off at a price and he's pretty consistent. Less likely than the other two, but is bound to score at this level sooner or later, and it could be today.
#4 Blue Knight: Scored nicely in first Polytrack start Opening Weekend; went right to bench. Returns off a much more impressive and consistent series of drills than does the stablemate on the rail.

Race 9:
#3 Rock Chalk: Ran into the same tough winner in both of last two starts; not sure the extra sixteenth is going to do him any favors, but looks like the most likely to upset this one.
#7 Rockhurst: Ageless runner looks for win #12. Can run anywhere, on just aout any surface, and at lots of different levels while still being competitive. Only knock is the 1-for-11 slate on the AP turf course while being 7-for-22 on the others. Still the one to beat.
#13 McMurphy: Ran a monster race last out in same event as Rock Chalk, had to take up, and was still coming fast at the end at 30-1. He gets an extra half furlong today, and there should be plenty of sizzle to set up his run.

Race 10:
#5 Lynx of Gold: Up from Churchill. Only Poly try was horrific, but against Keeneland MSW company last fall, and he might have turned a bit of a corner in his last few. Drops again, gets Douglas. Scary enough in a wide-open race.
#8 Angel Soup: Debut was good. Follow-up not quite as solid, but ran against a pretty tough bunch in that last one. Like the tepid drop in for this, and looks like one of the ones.
#10 Dream Ride: Big drop in from MSW, and none of the quartet of tries so far has been very impressive. Still, pressed the pace last time she was on Poly, and there's not a bunch of speed in here. Get the feeling this 7 furlong trip hits her between the eyes.

2,3,7,10/1,3,4/3,7,13/5,8,10 = $108