Discreet Cat

Originally Posted by sumitas

it must have something to do with the training. years ago it would seem the horses would be jogged between starts, then go all out for the race. now the top horses are really tightened before a race. efforts that used to be races are now workouts...that's my guess.

Years ago ragozin did a study and distinctly concluded that horses run their best sheet numbers in "easy efforts" and "public workouts". He said it was a total fallacy that more was in the tank in these efforts and that they would run faster with more pressure. Instead they found the opposite. Its why I love betting back against horses off "easy wins". In this case however, I do not think Bernadini will lose. I do not expect him to leap forward in his fig though. I would expect the same kind of figure in the Travers or a slight regression, albeit good enough to win.