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Old 07-30-2007, 10:25 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
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Circumstances can beat a superior horse.

Lawyer Ron is one race removed from losing to Gottcha Gold at 1/9 odds.

Gottcha Gold was one of six wire-to-wire winners from 8 dirt races that day at Monmouth. The other two pacesetters finished 2nd and 3rd, one of which at 43/1 odds. Several of the wire-to-wire winners that day didn't exactly figure...one of them won by 6 blowout lengths at 30/1 odds after setting a fast pace.

Now, Lawyer Ron ran a 108 Beyer figure against the grain of the powerful speed bias when defeated at MTH last out. It's hard to argue that a losing effort to Gottcha Gold was an indentical performance to winning the Whitney in track record time, however....it's not so hard to argue that a horse capable of running a 108 Beyer against the teeth of a strong speed bias, is very capable of "improving" to a 115 in a truly and fairly run race.

Street Sense had another lovely inside-out trip in the Jim Dandy, but he didn't get the wicked pace he needs to produce his best form...and thus was unable to make that spectacular far turn move that single handedly can break open a race that is run with a crazy fast pace (as the BC Juvie, Derby, and Preakness all happened to be run.) The 2nd place horse in the Dandy is elidgible for N1X alw races, and the terrible Cowtown Cat...was reasonably competitive in that race.

For Street Sense to win the Breeders Cup Classic, he's going to need another one of those scorching fast paces coupled with another rail skimming ride from Borel.

I would prefer Lawyer Ron's chances of those two at this stage. However, there are three capable horses running in the Haskell, and I would not be surprised at all if something really steps up and runs a career top in that race, of the big three.
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