Preakness races 9-12 writeup (WARNING: CHALK)

[ateamstupid]

Preakness Day Pick 4

Leg A (Race 9): The Barbaro Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, $150,000, 3 (Post Time: 3:37 p.m. EST)

1 - Vow to Greatness (Randy Allen / Jorge Duarte) 10-1
SCRATCHED

2 - Stonehouse (Joseph Broussard / Calvin Borel) 10-1
Chester House colt comes into this off the best race of his life, a second in the $80,000 Land of Lincoln at HAW for IL-breds, during which he chased winner Caruso around the track, but finished 3 clear of third. Thing is, that was only a four-horse field, and holding second against two IL-breds and beating a group of open horses in a $150,000 stake are two very different things. One bonus in his corner is that he's got some speed - especially with the stretchout - and this field doesn't have much in the way of challengers for the lead. Still, while there may be no pure speed types, there are plenty who are fast enough to make sure this bay doesn't get too loose up front. Not sold on chances.

3 - Silver Express (Nick Zito / Edgar Prado) 5-1
Gray son of Unbridled's Song ran a huge race in the CD slop to finish his two-year-old campaign, but hasn't quite matched up to that just yet in four starts at three. Ran a solid enough race three back when second by a head to Hal's My Hope in a GP N1X, but followed that up with an ugly run on Fountain of Youth day, finishing 32 1/2 lengths behind this race's likely favorite, Chelokee. He bounced back nicely in the $114,000 Lafayette at KEE, but it's not like he blew the doors off everyone - he ran seventh, beaten 4 1/2, earning a BSF of 82 and a TG of 8 1/4. He seems to have a good race, bad race pattern going, and even if he can buck that, it's questionable whether he can run back to that Nov. 7 effort at CD if the track doesn't come up icky. Prefer others.

4 - Soaring By (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 5-2
SCRATCHED

5 - Dancin Buddha (Laura Dennis / Alan Garcia) 20-1
Buddha gray is similar to the rail runner in that he seems to make his run no matter what, but that one seems superior to this colt in many ways. Vow to Greatness has been in the exacta three out of four times, this dude has only cracked it once, in his maiden win. Vow to Greatness has numerous 75+ BSF numbers and sub-10 TG numbers, this guy doesn't have one of either. Would definitely go for Vow to Greatness if looking for a closer.

6 - Chelokee (Michael Matz / Ramon Dominguez) 1-1
Barbaro's barn sends out this Cherokee Run colt who's shown immense promise since dominating a DEL MSW last fall. He initially looked as if he was failing to improve after that, but really turned the corner at GP in his last two starts. Firstly, he broke his N1X condition on Mar. 3 despite a near impossible trip in which he tracked a hot pace, checked on the turn, dropped 6 lengths back, then closed to get up late. Centennial's charge followed that up with another trouble-filled run, this time a third at 8-1 in the G1 FL Derby. Was a candidate for the Derby, but encountered some trouble the week before and skipped the race. Considered for Preakness as well, then Matz changed his mind, and therein lies the only negative. There possibly was a sentimental reason for entering this guy in the Barbaro, but a Preakness win would've been even cooler. Nonetheless, if this colt is on his toes, he has every right to demolish this group. Hard to get past him.

7 - Zephyr Cat (Francis Campitelli / Luis Garcia) 10-1
Tactical Cat gelding has proven to be a shrewd purchase, bought for $5,500 as a yearling and moving forward very nicely since debuting on Jan. 3. His best start to date came last out in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio. He was no challenge to winner and Preakness starter Xchanger, but he closed nicely to get third, earning an 84 BSF and 6 1/4 TG in the process. The issue is that he needs another move forward to be a win contender here, and that was a big effort in the Tesio to improve on, especially in his sixth start in less than five months. Never out of the trifecta in five tries, which is something to chew on, as he will be a solid price, and he also has a versatile running style that can adapt to the pace and a local jockey familiar with the course. Thinking he isn't quite ready to jump up and win a race like this, but he certainly could come get a piece late and spice up the exotics.

(6) Chelokee - The horse to beat and sentimental favorite FIRST
(4) Soaring By - SCRATCHED
(2) Stonehouse - Chance to take advantage of reasonable pace FOURTH
(7) Zephyr Cat - Allows race to come to him THIRD