9/17: Churchill (5th-11th); Bel/Aqu (6th-11th); Woodbine (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Communication Memo 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Release McCracken 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Create Trouble 6-1 11th
Super Add: #3 Army Star 15-1 7th


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (Derby City 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Pro Oxident 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Unbridled Honor 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Gulfstream Way 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Uber Kirk 15-1 WON ($21.20)


7th: Open Mind, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Bell's the One 6-5 WON ($3.08)
Next Best: #1 Sconsin 8-5 3rd


8th: Locust Grove (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Lil Tootsie 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Envoutante 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Played Hard 2-1 WON ($6.24)
Super Add: #1 Gold Spirit 6-1 4th


P4 Grid:

5: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 3-9 (A), 4-11 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (1-3 in 8th): 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8


9th: Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Damon's Mound 5-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Echo Again 2-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Curly Jack 5-1 WON ($23.66)
Exotics Use: #6 Jace's Road 7-2 3rd


10th: Louisville TB Society, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Miles Ahead 6-1 WON ($7.46)
Next Best: #7 Top Gunner 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Isolate 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #4 Necker Island 5-2 3rd


11th: Pocahontas (G3), 2yo-F, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Grand Love 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Fun and Feisty 6-1 WON ($14.46)
Next Best: #11 Justa Warrior 4-1 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Shoplifter 15-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Naughty Gal 5-1 12th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4-5 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
11: 5 (A), - (B), 10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (10-11 in 11th): 3x3x2x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


P4 Grid:

8: 2-4-5 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
11: 5-10 (A), - (B), 4-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x4x2 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (4-11 in 11th): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12



BEL/AQU


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Occult 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Padma 9-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #6 Royal Poppy 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Spun Special 8-1 3rd


[u]7th: Jockey Club Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 11f-T (P5, P3, DD)/U]

Most Likely: #1 McKulick 4-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Miss Yearwood 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Toskana Belle 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Beside Herself 4-1 4th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-Outer (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Klickitat 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Immortalization 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Phantom Smoke 7-2 7th
Super Add: #7 Carpe's Dream 12-1 5th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Expressman 2-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Nabokov 6-1 WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Mackillop 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1a American Gentleman 10-1 3rd


10th: Jockey Club Derby (G3), 3yo, 12f-T (DD)

Best Value: #6 Ardakan 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Nations Pride 1-1 WON ($3.10)
Exotics Use: #1 Classic Causeway 2-1 3rd


11th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer

Best Value: #9 Ard Macha 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Royal Dancer 7-5 WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Shinfull 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Lemon Red 8-1 8th


P5 Grid:

7: 1 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
8: 4-6-7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 8-9 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x1x2x4 = $40 ($20 for .50)
All A's: 1x5x1x2x2 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backups: $20 (4-5 in 7th) + $20 (2-5 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 4-6-7-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 8-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x4 = $40 ($20 for .50)
All A's: 5x1x2x2 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup: $20 (2-5 in 9th)



WOODBINE


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Bijou Baby 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Bedazzle Me 8-1 6th
Next Best: #10 State of Mind 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Flysofreeashleeb 4-1 8th


7th: Summer (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (.20 P6, .20 P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Appraise 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mysterious Night 6-5 WON ($3.10)
Exotics Use: #6 Phillip My Dear 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Sammy Stone 20-1 6th


[u]8th Seaway (G3), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)[u]

Streaking Hazelbrook irresistible at 8-1 (or so) against usual suspects here..

Best Value: #7 Hazelbrook 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Lady Speightspeare 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Souper Sensational 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Beyond Mybudget 10-1 7th


9th: Woodbine Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (.20 P4, P3, DD)

Ivar at 4-1 easily preferable to overrated Modern Games. Homer Screen's near miss to top West Coast miler Hong Kong Harry makes him a player at attractive number..

Most Likely: #2 Ivar 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Homer Screen 10-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Modern Games 7-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Shirl's Speight 12-1 4th


10th: Natalma (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

One of the day's most interesting groups. Sure looks like there's pace aplenty..

Best Value: #3 G Laurie 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Wickenheiser 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Cairo Consort 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Adora 6-1 5th


11th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Big Band Luzziann 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #5 Lido Key 5-2 2nd
Next Best Value: #4 Gabby Squared 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Guileful 8-1 10th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-3 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
8: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-7 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
10: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-5-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
Backup (5 in 9th): 2x1x3x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


Good luck!
Steve