4/8: Keeneland ~ Opening Day (4th-10th)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Beholder/Mendelssohn/Into Mischief sister Marr Time (Not This Time) stretches out and A Mo Reay makes 3yo debut. Park On the Nile and Scratch Kat competitive here, but poorly drawn. 30-1 Glacken's Cause has run progressively in her last 2 on dirt. Kooky longshot that will save all the ground and finish in a race with pace up front..

Most Likely: #3 Malibu Marie 7-2 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #6 Marr Time 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Glacken's Cause 30-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 A Mo Reay 3-1 10th


5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T ($1 P6, 5th-8th-10th KEE Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 In Effect 6-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Supply Chain 3-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Ginsburned 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Healing 4-1 WON ($7.80)


$3 All Turf P3 Grid:

5: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
10: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x1 = 12 x $3 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1 = 6 x $3 = $18
Backup: 2x3x1 = 6 x $3 = $18 (C-A-A)


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

The ones that have experience look rather ordinary and firsters She's Keen (20-1), Luv Dragon (12-1) & Classic Coyne (10-1) all have siblings that had talent. Tough start to P5..

Best Value: #7 Classic Coyne 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Beravina 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 American Pyramid 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Luv Dragon 12-1 4th


7th: Lafayette, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Gaffalione will have to gain some position early from the rail, but Osbourne VERY dangerous cutting back to distance of maiden-breaker for country smart Moquett. 12-1? Sign me up. And note that Brett Brinkman, the man who brings you LA-bred GSW Cilla, has a sprinting fool in Old Homestead (20-1). May forget to stop.

Best Value: #1 Osbourne 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 My Prankster 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Old Homestead 20-1 WON ($21.80)
Super Add: #12 Tejano Twist 7-2 11th


8th: Transylvania (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Leepin' lizards.. This 6 pack is separated by about 2 lengths. Figure Saez will take control with Coinage and there's no one better meting out speed. Merits nod on slightest of edges..

Most Likely: #5 Coinage 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Verbal 2-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Napoleonic War 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Grand Sonata 5-2 2nd


9th: Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Interstatedaydream looks primed by Cox for stalk and pounce trip under Geroux..

Most Likely: #2 Interstatedaydream 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Cocktail Moments 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Awake At Midnyte 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Nest 2-1 WON ($5.40)


10th: ALW/N2X, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Bay Storm 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Blissful Change 6-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Illegal Smile 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Angel Palm 10-1 6th


P5 Grid:

6: 2-5-7 (A), 1-6-8 (B), 4-9-10 (C)
7: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 9 (A), - (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x6x2x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (C-A-A-A-A) + $18 (A-A-A-A-C)


P4 Grid:

7: 1-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-6 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 2-3-7 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
10: 1-9 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (A-A-A-C)


Good luck!
Steve