6/19 (ASC): Kev Humphreys' Royal Ascot ~ Day 4

[mm1019]

Originally Posted by Kasept

4.40 Duke of Edinburgh

Prediction 1 - Scarlet Dragon (BEST LONGSHOT) 2 - Protected Guest 3 - Universal Order 4 - Byron Flyer

This race looks absolutely ripe for a massive upset. But in order for that to happen we need this to turn into a slog so someone needs to take West End Charmer on for the lead.

All 4 selections are very susceptible to any big improver but the ratings say this should be close so will shoot for the stars.

Scarlet Dragon is my top pick. He has run OK here before in the past, the trip and ground will suit and Alan King has placed his horses very well this week.

Protected Guest is the last one to try my luck with a jackpot hit. Trainer is very hopeful and this has been the plan which I like. He may be a little better on fast ground but at 50-1+ we take out chances. He also has the dreaded Timeform squiggle which means to treat with caution (ie a bit of a head case!)

Universal Order ran well enough in Dubai and while high enough in the weights, should be able to continue his progression. He also has a win over more fancied El Misk last year.

Byron Flyer has a few steeplechases in his form but he’s a decent horse on his day. The softer the better for him - he was 8th in this race last year, beaten about 5 lengths but the combination of soft ground and 4 pounds less and he has a bit of a squeak. He didn’t run too badly on his reappearance either.

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Kind regards,
Kevin

50-1 Thank You Kevin