Wknd Beyers: Quality Road 103; Big Drama 109

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I'll let our own 'speed boys' delve deepest, but those figures make perfect sense and show the track was a little faster than par. Dunkirk's # is rignt in line with his last, and Quality Road regressed logically on the initial two turn try off the huge one turn effort. What's the issue?

Feels a little low to me. Ran the numbers using Beyer's projection method and there's two ways to look at it IMO, both leaving out the Fl Derby.

(1) take the average of all the variants not including the Fl Derby. I get:
R1: 102 Just Ben (85 Mighty Score)
R2: 88 Santana Six
R3: 55 Senor Leche
R5: 86 Glitterman's Cartel (85 Nicanor)
R7: 100 Vitruvius (97 Groomedforvictory)
R9: 113 Big Drama (112 This One's for Phil)
R10: 110 Quality Road (107 Dunkirk)
R12: 68 Jacoby's Run

(2) Leave out the outlier, R12, which could be just as dreadful as the time indicated (the winner was 4-1 coming off a 4 length defeat in a $80k MCL...) which drops every race by 2 points.

It seems to me that everything fell pretty much into line except the last race (the variant range were a very tight 12 to 20 from the raw figures), which is why I don't understand why it's 5-7 points lower than what I get.