11/29: AQU (Cigar Day); CD (Meet Finale)

[Kasept]

Bit of a wince-inducing day Friday as I left Einstein (my second choice) off the P4 play and watched as he clobbered Commentator who was without any possible excuse. Quad came back over $520. At Hollywood, I went 4 of 6 in the Carryover try, and as I said on ATR, knew I had made a mistake omitting Hyperbaric from the Citation play. Leaving him out cost the $635 consolation.

So despite having a number of winners on the day, came away with very little of bankroll consequence... Two more great days of action to find those heretofore elusive scores. Hope you did well. Churchill Stars of Tomorrow meet-ender today and top notch Cigar Mile Day card at the Big A.


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Dubinsky 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Diplomatic Code 12-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Tippity Tap 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Copper Cascade 12-1 5th


5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Winloc's Saint Ray 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Fortissi More 5-2 WON
Best Value: #4 Maill Heroics 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Tee With the Tiger 10-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (10-8) Paid $9.80
$1 Trifecta (10-8-2) Paid $45.75


6th: 87th Demoiselle (Gr. II), 2yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 SKY DIVA 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Springside 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Ain't Love Grand 7-2 4th


7th: 95th Remsen (Gr. II), 2yo, 9f (P3 , DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 OLD FASHIONED 2-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Hold Me Back 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Idol Maker 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 American Dance 8-1 3rd


8th: 20th Hill 'n' Dale Cigar Mile (Gr. I), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

No disrespect to Eric Donovan, but the ML for this Gr. I is difficult to fathom.. I'll offer a 1-2-3-4 instead of the usual monikers because the oddsboard will not come close to relecting the ML at post time..

1. #4 Bribon 6-1 3rd
2. #6 Monterey Jazz 6-1 7th
3. #3 Harlem Rocker 15-1 2nd-DQ'd
4. #9 Kodiak Kowboy 7-2 5th


9th: ALW/N1X, 2+, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 My Man Lars 3-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Stormy Mirage 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Raddical Sabbatical 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Forever My Friend 8-1 WON


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 7-8-10
5: 2-4-8-10-11
6: 5
7: 6
8: 4-6
9: 1-3-5

3x5x1x1x2x3 = 90 x $2 = $180


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5
7: 6
8: 2-3-4-5-6-9
9: 1-3-5

2x1x6x3 = 36 x $2 = $72



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Passion Du Coeur 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 A.P. Elegance 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Oculuna 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Emma Darling 2-1 WON

$1 Exacta 3-1 $23.10
$1 Trifecta 3-1-7 $34.90
$1 Superfecta 3-1-7-5 $214.80


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

McPeek's #11 a deserving fave and fast, but trip an issue from marooned outpost..

Most Likely: #11 Satin Thunder 8-5 WON
Best Value: #2 The Best Day Ever 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Abigail's Gold 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #13 SCR


3rd: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Back Away Tales 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 General Quarters 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Myroslaw 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Silver City 4-1 WON


4th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Nice Ring 6-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Prospective Love 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Better Than Gold 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #6 Justin 7-2 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

1: 1-7
2: 2-8-11
3: 1-2-3-5-6-8
4: 2-12

2x3x6x1 = $36


5th: Grand Canyon H., 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Jack Spratt 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Rockin' Joe 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 South Fork Lodge 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Presents for Berti 5-1 7th


6th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Pretty Prolific 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 She's Extreme 15-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Best Lass 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Selective 7-2 3rd

$1 Exacta 11-3 $61.60
$1 Trifecta 11-3-5 $188.40


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Heart Ashley 7-5 WON
Next Best: #14 SCR
Best Value: #8 Missy Lou 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Rumble Creek 20-1 9th


8th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 No Inflation 3-1 11th
Best Value: #6 Melo 10-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Phosphorescent 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Quiet Thanks 12-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4
6: 3-5-7-11
7: 4
8: 2-4-5-6-7-9-10-11

2x4x1x8 = $64


9th: Golden Rod (Gr. I), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Rachel Alexandra 2-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Sara Louise 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 War Echo 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Dream Empress 9-5 4th

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $10.10
$1 Trifecta (4-1-7) Paid $38.60
$1 Superfecta (4-1-7-3) Paid $62.20


10th: Caressing H., 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Striking Dancer 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sugar Mom 7-2 9th
Best Value: #4 Seminole Lass 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Abbott Hall 4-1 3rd


11th: Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr. II), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Zion 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Beethoven 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #10 Giant Oak 20-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-10) Paid $70.90
$1 Trifecta (3-10-8) Paid $245.30
$1 Superfecta (3-10-8-6) Paid $1,314.90



12th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Tribal Bead 7-2 7th
Best Value: #11 Masked Man 15-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Barishnikov 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Son of Destiny 15-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-4-7
10: 2-7
11: 8
12: 2-4-6-8-9-10-11-12

4x2x1x8 = $64


Good luck!
Steve