Derby futures

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has odds for all the top 20, and them some. But they also have this interesting abbreviated list:

1251 Lookin at Lucky +425
1252 Eskendereya +215
1253 Sidneys Candy +825
1254 American Lion +2050
1255 Dublin +2250
1256 Any Other Runner +145

That line has a 10% takeout. Neither Bookmaker nor 5Dimes has Derby futures up. (5Dimes DOES have snooker futures for the "World Championship", though. Thank heaven for that.)

Eskendereya was +285 at TheGreek before the weekend's races. (Actually +325 was available in a separate 'Eskendereya vs Field' bet.)

--Dunbar

[The Bid]

You really don't have a clue what you are watching if you even consider a bet on that horse.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Bid

You really don't have a clue what you are watching if you even consider a bet on that horse.

In a race that's going to be loaded with horses who have little chance of winning, I think Dublin at > 20-1 is far from a bad bet.

NT

[The Bid]

Then maybe you don't know what you are looking at either. I do not mean that to be nasty but he has zero shot to factor or hit the board. Absolutely none

[Dublin]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I was actually pleased with Dublins run yesterday, because instead of getting 7-1 I thought I would get over 20-1, and according to this, I will.

Oh no...

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Then maybe you don't know what you are looking at either. I do not mean that to be nasty but he has zero shot to factor or hit the board. Absolutely none

Duly noted. I'll be eagerly awaiting your selections soon, I have no idea what I'm talking about nor what I'm looking at.

NT

[The Bid]

Bashing a G1 winner who cant run past a mile, whos never won past 7/8ths of a mile. Who has absolutely no punch in the stretch against mules. Save your money, see if you can find an English bookmaker that will let you bet him as last 4 to finish. That is where he will finish.

If you bet that horse you do not have any idea at all what you are watching. Not that I ever thought you had any idea, but that will pretty much seal the deal. The eternal moosh, betting a hopeless plug, going a mile and a quarter when he cant even run a mile against mediocre horses.

You and Rich Perloff on TVG maybe the two sharpest MF to ever breath.

[The Bid]

I could careless what you think. You don't know what you are talking about, nor what you are looking at.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by The Bid

I could careless what you think. You don't know what you are talking about, nor what you are looking at.

hes really bad

[The Bid]

Worst I have ever seen but always has something to say

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Bid, good luck in the derby. I have never once put anyone on the ignore list, I actually just found it and now you will be the first. Good Luck in the future.

Joe, you could learn a lot from the Bid. I'd recommend you rethink putting him on ignore and maybe listening a little more to why he's right.

And again... making selections 3 weeks before the race is run is probably a bad idea. I thought you were over that??

[The Bid]

Phil I appreciate that

Hes the guy that boxes 5 in an exacta and still misses. 7 horse field.

Not to mention with Dublin hes been ran in all the preps, hasn't won any. In fact, hasn't won since he was a juvy! Makes perfect sense to bet him in Derby. 20-1 IMO is a short price on him. He should be 60-1 at post and I still wouldnt use him in anything because hes a hopeless puke

[The Bid]

You cash more mythical wagers than anybody I have ever seen.

You have more money on horses you hate than any MF I have watched in here. You bashed VJ balls about Stately Victor, yet he wins and pays 80 and you have 10 accross on him. Then you hafta back peddle like Kenny Lofton because you look like a moron of epic proportions

Its too bad you don't bet exactas. I would follow you from track to track. Im sure your money shakes the board

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im not really an exacta player, and If Dublin did not run I would be the first on here. Hes not my main play or whatever I think the chalk will be really tough to beat, but like Ntamm said at or around 20-1 IMO hes worth using.

Seriously though, why Dublin? D. Wayne hasn't won a stakes race with a 3YO in like 8 years. Why not, say, Super Saver- who will be the same price, and has a win over the track, beat Dublin on the square, and a better chance to move up on Derby Day?

And again, while discussing contenders early especially in the Derby is important, don't lock yourself in 3 weeks out. Go back and watch every race. Digest the results and think about what really should happen. Formulate a way how each horse could potentially win. Step back and evaluate the prices at which these horses will be versus the way you decide each could potentially win. Remember the other day when you were supremely confident in Warrior's Reward? You gave a situation how and why he was going to win, at a bonus mutuel. Just because you bet Dublin in the Ark Derby doesn't mean you need to bet him again in the Ky Derby.

[Scav]

I am pretty shocked that Dublin is still even running, let alone make the Derby.

[The Bid]

That horse isn't even on a ****** like yours radar without Vol Jack. Thats the point. You put yourself in a position that if the horse loses you jump jack and bash him,if it wins you loved him.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Seriously though, why Dublin? D. Wayne hasn't won a stakes race with a 3YO in like 8 years. Why not, say, Super Saver- who will be the same price, and has a win over the track, beat Dublin on the square, and a better chance to move up on Derby Day?

And again, while discussing contenders early especially in the Derby is important, don't lock yourself in 3 weeks out. Go back and watch every race. Digest the results and think about what really should happen. Formulate a way how each horse could potentially win. Step back and evaluate the prices at which these horses will be versus the way you decide each could potentially win. Remember the other day when you were supremely confident in Warrior's Reward? You gave a situation how and why he was going to win, at a bonus mutuel. Just because you bet Dublin in the Ark Derby doesn't mean you need to bet him again in the Ky Derby.

Hush on Super Saver, although he should have cruised past that horse on Saturday, and he didn't gallop out that strong.

I am not sure what to think about the race.

[The Bid]

Scav he wont win a race of merit as an older horse. I doubt he ever wins another graded stake, and he will never win a graded stake 1000000 percent past 7/8ths. That includes G3

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Scav he wont win a race of merit as an older horse. I doubt he ever wins another graded stake, and he will never win a graded stake 1000000 percent past 7/8ths. That includes G3

Dublin or Super Saver?

[The Bid]

Dublin

SS would at least get a look