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#1
02-26-2010, 12:04 PM
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Most Vicious Derby Pace Ever
One of the most embarrassing bets I've made happened with an offshore prop bet in 2001.
It was still a few months before the Derby - and, going off bitter memory, the prop bet was worded something like.... 'Number of horses to compete in this years Kentucky Derby' : Over 17.5 (-240) Under 17.5 (+180) Yes, the crop looked unusually strong at the time, but the over seemed like nothing short of stealing. It's the Derby! .. everyone wants in! Preps were as scattered as ever .. Lukas longshot Commendable had won the recent triple crown race. I took the max I could get on the over. Most every important prep race is won in extremely dominant fashion with the winner often running a giant figure and looking like a superstar visually. The also-rans often all appearing as hopelessly overmatched as it gets. Only 17 go. I offically lose my prop bet because D. Wayne Lukas ... who has never seen a hopelessly overmatched 3yo colt he didn't want to jam into the Derby .. was so in awe of the competition that he allowed his streak of 20 consecutive years with at least one Derby starter to end. The '01 Derby pace was absolutely blistering beyond belief. The performance of 3rd place Congaree was very special. He probably ran better in defeat than any singe Kentucky Derby winner last decade did in victory. The key to the whole race was Songandaprayer getting stuck down in post position #1. Songandaprayer was bought for 7 figures at a 2yo in training sale - he had great early speed and almost blew a 5 length lead going 5fs in career debut. He easily won the Grade 1 Fountain of Youth after running off on a big lead over an inside-speed friendly track. Songandaprayer was exposed as a horse totally incapable of winning a race like the Derby with rating tactics when such tactics failed in subsquent starts after his FoY win. When he drew post position #1 .. there was no doubt that the raw speed which helped him sell for seven figures as a 2yo would be showcased. It was his only true weapon. 8 different horses were within 10 lengths of the lead at the first call .. note the extreme negative impact the pace had on their form...  Express Tour's nose victory in the $2 million Dubai race may not look like much - but keep in mind that he was an undefeated 2yo sprinting sensation in Florida - and that Street Cry and Lido Palace ran 2nd and 3rd to him in that Dubai race. Street Cry, maybe better known as the sire of Zenyatta and Street Sense, was an excellent horse who would crush the field in the following years Dubai World Cup. Lido Palace would return to America after the weak Dubai 3rd to Express Tour and win both the Woodward and Whitney over such horses as Tiznow and Albert The Great. And even though Congaree actually saw a 1 point jump in Beyers - do note that he toyed with Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos in the Wood...and, the Wood was the only route race run on dirt at AQU that day, and the figure was VERY questionable - and could easily have been as high as a 114. But most of all - I really think the greatness of the '01 Kentucky Derby boiled down to one little observation... Only two different two-turn dirt routes were run that day. In the 10f Derby - the early fractions were a savage 22.25 and 44.86 In an 8.5f alw race for older males that same day - Fan The Flame went wire to wire after setting fractions of 24.18 and 47.51. Yep, the same Fan The Flame who got into a bitter head to head speed duel with recent Tiznow conqueror and 6/5 favorite Wooden Phone in the Grade 1 Oaklawn Park Handicap his prior start. The same Fan the Flames who ran off to early lead and finished 2nd in a 300K Graded Stake in the first race after his Derby day allowance win. 
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#2
02-26-2010, 12:32 PM
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That was mere child's play compared to the Groovy-Zabaleta pace in the 1986 Derby. Poor Snow Chief never had a chance.
__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#3
02-26-2010, 12:50 PM
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You obviously haven't looked at Jerry Brown's pace figures.
He has the pace for last weeks Risen Star 3 full lengths faster than the '86 Derby.
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#4
02-26-2010, 01:01 PM
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What do you make of the '98 Kentucky Derby?
IIRC, Old Trieste went out there pretty quick and leading up to the race worked a ridiculous 6f over the Churchill track in 1:09 and change.
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#5
02-26-2010, 01:04 PM
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A link to the Old Trieste workout (don't be alarmed by the length, it works):
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sourc...KH17ujRt5Bog2A Tiny URL: http://tinyurl.com/ya5d6ll Last edited by Kasept : 02-26-2010 at 02:20 PM.
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#6
02-26-2010, 01:10 PM
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Yeah, he also had some pretty serious early trouble at the start if I recall.
That was a very strong pace as well....but not quite like '01. I think the jockeys were determined to not let what happend in '01 repeat itself the following year ... even though the field had MUCH less quality speed. Perfect Drift would have been loose on the lead if Eddie D. wasn't strangling him back. I think the top 3 raced 1-2-3 all the way around and made up a huge trifecta payoff.
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#7
02-26-2010, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
I always thought Eddie D. rode a shrewd race by having him up close, was he really pulling?
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#8
02-26-2010, 02:26 PM
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I bet PD in that race.
I was watching him and only him the whole way and he was somewhere between being rank and very rank. I don't think there was anything that clever about Eddie D's ride ... the horse would have hooked War Emblem early if Eddie D. didn't fight with him. I was more confused than anything else about why he was so agressive early on.. I certainly didn't expect him to show that much early speed. MDO ran the best race that day.
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#9
02-26-2010, 03:20 PM
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Another interesting thing about the '01 Derby ... the two horses who photo'd for 2nd in the race (Invisible Ink and Congaree) both had tale of woe near death stories when they were just cute wittle baby horseys.
One even had his life saved by rotten buttermilk. Quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0szvkKH7ogw
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#10
02-26-2010, 03:41 PM
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How does Congaree compare to Closing Argument in 2005? I always thought he ran by far the best Derby in another particularly quick early paced race.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#11
02-26-2010, 03:44 PM
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Granted, Closing Argument was a bum, but held on better than anybody else that day.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#12
02-26-2010, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
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#13
02-26-2010, 04:07 PM
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It doesn't matter because this year's Derby pace will be even faster. Last weekend's results told me so.
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#14
02-26-2010, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Closing Argument was 6th after a half and six furlongs in the '05 Derby .... and he did only run a 99 Beyer while finishing 2nd ... but yeah he ran the best race ... and just like Congaree and MDO before him .. his Preakness was no coronation. Congaree got a statistical negative rider switch (on ROI numbers only) the year he ran in the Preakness. Though it was supposed to be a big positive rider swith if you listened to anything else. His Derby jockey was Victor Espinoza - the strongest jockey in the game - and a guy who year after year would produce these big mind-boggling profitable ROI stats in dirt routes. His best ride was on speedy dirt routers. Jerry Bailey took over Congaree for the Preakness and he was much less stronger but much more expierienced and clever. Congaree stumbled badly at the start, and than got into a big wrestling match with Bailey in the Preakness. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEZgronfOQ4 - he only lost to Point Given by 2.5 lengths. He was freshened and did win a Grade 1 next out in lackluster fashion - but you didn't see the real Congaree again until late in his 4yo season.  Medaglia D' Oro ... who I thought was clearly best in the following years merry-go-round Kentucky Derby finished 8th beaten 17 lengths at 3/1 odds in the Preakness before losing to Sarava in the Belmont. Like Congaree - he later found great form. Closing Argument was beaten 26 lengths in the Preakness and never ran again.
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#16
02-26-2010, 04:46 PM
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Even after watching Monarchos get a great prep in the wood - I keyed Invisible Ink in the 2001 Derby. I had him 1st and 2nd in the exacta and 3rd in the tri. I was really hoping that Congaree would hang on for place but it still paid ok tax money for the exacta.
__________________
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#18
02-26-2010, 05:55 PM
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Quote:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...6581/index.htm
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#19
02-26-2010, 06:12 PM
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I recall Top Avenger set a hot pace for Goto Del Sol (?can't exactly remember the winner) but up until Songandaprayer I believe he may have set the fastest pace in the derby.
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#20
02-26-2010, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
I was just joking .. Brown didn't really say that... though the way his scale is going -- I wouldn't doubt if he did. Groovy didn't seem to find himself until after the trainer change to Jose Martin.
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